Since Sen Peter Fitzgerald announced that he would not seek reelection (and even before) Illinois has seemed almost a sure pickup for the Democrats in 2004. Recent revelations about Blair Hull, the multi-millionare and front-runner for the democratic nomination, are starting to make me nervous.
Apparently Hull was involved in an extraordinarily messy divorce just a few years ago. From the National Journal's Hotline:
CBS 2's Flannery reports, Dem "frontrunner" Hull "is facing tough questions about his past -- a past that could include allegations of domestic abuse." While Hull says he is "now friends" with his ex-wife, "she once asked a court for an order of protection against Hull, which usually requires evidence of domestic abuse."
Hull "would not authorize release of records that would reveal what his ex-wife told the court when she sought that order of protection against him. Nor would he provide any substantive answers to questions about it." Hull: "This really doesn't play a role in the Senate race. This has to do with between Brenda Sexton and me. I think the real issue is that she supports my candidacy." Sexton "declined to talk about her apparent allegations of domestic violence." Sexton: "I have it in Blair's hands ... He's the one running for office." Sexton, when asked if Hull "had ever threatened violence against her": "I've said all i'm going to say" (2/19).
Not only that, but now there is word that a lawsuit may soon be filed against Hull about the mysterious death of a young woman in his home. Again from the Hotline:
"Hull was not living in the house at the time. After the two broke up, he allows his girlfriend to use" the residence "and he moved elsewhere. Her friend was apparently overcome by a massive amount of carbon monoxide from a pool heater when she went to the garage to start her car ... A toxicology report has still not been issued, but a lawsuit is reportedly in the works -- that is, unless Hull negotiates a quiet end. He seems to do that a lot" (2/25).
How could a candidate with this much baggage win the democratic primary? Money, and lots of it. Hull has pledged to spend as much as $40 mill of his own money to win this seat and is plastering Illinois with ads. Recent polls show Hull leading the pack, and his lead is actually growing. Local media outlets, while not ignoring these stories, are not giving the story the kind of attention that they would get in the general and so Hull has been able to skate through so far. But if Hull wins the primary (which is less than a month away) you can bet that his GOP opponent will not be shy about taking Hull to town. All in all the entire fiasco could rapidly transform a Democratic pickup into a toss-up or worse. (Not to mention the fact that I am not all that comfortable with the prospect of a US Senator who engaged in domestic abuse!!)
Its not like Hull is the only show in town either! The field is full of great candidates, from state Comptroller Dan Hynes, to Cook County Treasurer Maria Pappas, to Chicago School Board President Gery Chico. And then there is my personal favorite, St Sen Barak Obama, a true progressive and rising political star.