Now that we've secured a beachhead of sorts in our 2005 wins, we shpuld be thinking about what seats we can grab in 2006. We should be challenging every Republican we can, of course, but these seats, I think, we could grab even if Bush manages to get back in the 40% range (though given how bad things are going for him, I have to admit that a recovery seems unlikely to happen in just a year).
Here are a few good seats of contention:
CA-11
Richard Pombo's district was redrawn to include many more Democrats from the San Francisco Bay area's outer edge. Pombo is is also accused of corruption relating to fund-raising and his re-election campaigns, so painting him as part of the culture of corruption should be easy.
CA-26
Despite outspending his opponent 30 to 1, and despite the fact that his opponent was denounced by the regular Democratic party, David Drier was re-elected in 2004 with his lowest margin since 1980. We took out Philip CRane in 2004, so maybe 2006's big target can be Drier, who's district isn't as hugely conservative as it used to be.
CA-50
The stench of Randy Cunningham was so great that he did one of the few wise things he has decided to do in the last few decades: he realized that he would likely lose re-election in 2006, and bowed out. The district leans Republican, but much of the GOP strength is due to the military presence there. If a Democrat with a connection to nearby Camp Pendleton were selected, it might make this race competitive.
CO-4
Marilyn Musgrave has been targeted by anti-corrpution groups, and was held to under 60% in the last election. An opponent with a better campaign and a general anti-GOP sentiment might be enough to defeat her, especially since she has done little to enhance her district in recent years.
CO-7
Beauperez barely won in 2004, and his district is almost exactly 50/50, so a Democratic challenge here is almost a foregone conclusion. Since Beauperez has often voted surprisingly conservative for such a close district, this is one we could easily take.
CT-2
Rob Simmons, like Beauperez, was barely re-elected at all in 2004, and in this Democrat-leaning district (it voted for Kerry by an easy majority), a strong candidate and a good turnout machine could push this one our way.
CT-4
Chris Shays goes out of his way to try to look critical of Bush when he can safely do so, but he's now having to run from his own party almost at every turn. I think in 2004 his declared party labvel might at last catch up with him.
FL-13
Katherine Harris may quit to run for the Senate (in which case Bill Nelson will kick her ass), but whether she stays or goes, we have to run for this seat. While it's only about 43% Democrat, that might be enough if the anti-GOP tide stays high, especially given that they've had Harris reminding them of the GOP's excesses for these last few years.
GA-11
This district was drawn to favor a Democrat, and it gave Phil Gingrey a close race in 2004. Given how unpopular the Democrats were then in Georgia, it seems reasonable to expect that they could do better in 2006, and maybe unseat Gingrey.
IL-6
Henry Hyde's DuPage County district has been slowly creeping leftward since the late 80s, and Hyde himself was helt to a 10-point margin by a relative newcomer in 2004. With the defeat of Crane in the nearby 8th district, this could be the next big pickup in the Land of Lincoln, particularly since Hyde is retiring.
IN-8
The "bloody eighth" is one of those anomalous places where there's almost always a close race, and the winner is almost always hard to predict. It's picked Hostettler since the GOP's '94 sweep, but maybe a new Democrat sweep in '06 will propel him back out.
IN-9
Baron Hill lost this seat by only a tiny margin, and has already announced his intentions to run here again. With the tide turning against the GOP, this is one seat we have really no excuse for losing next year.
IA-1
Jim Nussle represents what is arguably the most Democrat district in Iowa, and a little-known challenger held him to 55% in 2004. A more visible challenger could perhaps defeat Nussle, especially if he retires to run for another office (as he might do) and be replaced on the GOP ticket by a die-hard partisan.
KY-3
How Anne Northup keeps winning this Democrat-leaning district I really don't know. I guess just inept or underfunded opposition. But this is one we really have no business losing next year.
MN-6
Mark Kennedy was held to within a few pointe here by Wetterling, and if he quits to run for Senate (and he might) this would become an open seat, and slightly easier to pick up. In either case, a good Democrat with ties to the district should be competitive here.
NV-3
This district was designed to purposely be 50/50, and with the GOP's sinking popularity, relative newcomer Jon Porter could be ousted in 2006 in this suburban Las Vegas district.
NH-2
Charles Bass' district voted for Kerry for president by a respectable margin, and NH just elected a new Democrat governor. The land of Live Free or Die seems to be trending our way, and this seat at least could be competitive with a strong enough challenger.
NJ-5
Scott Garrett is far more conservative than any of his GOP colleagues from the Garden State. This is a toss-up district, but if Rush Holt could win in a district that included Hunterdon in the last census, then this is certainly doable.
NM-1
Heather Wilson's district voted for Gore and Kerry in the last 2 elections, and the only reason she's still there is because her challenger didn't run very strong campaigns. With stringer candidates and an anti-GOP feeling coming to a head, we may finally get this Albuquerque district.
NY-3
Peter King is the only Republican congressman left on Long Island, and while his district is the most conservative on the island, regional trends suggest that it is becoming more competitive, and King could be heading into a difficult race in '06.
NY-13
Fosella only barely survived in 2000, and only got a boost afterward from Bush's Sept. 11th boost. He's showing new signs of vulnerability, and next year might be the time his luck finally runs out.
NC-8
Robin Hayes, after telling an impassioned story about how he could never approve CAFTA without great alterations, then turned around and did just that. That he was held to 55% by someone with almost no prior experience in politics suggests that he is vulnerable. That John Kerry won 42% here (high for a GOP-held district) is also an ominous sign for Hayes.
NC-11
This district leans nominally Republican, but Taylor was held to 54% in the last race here, and with Heath Shuler already declaring his intetion to challenge the scandal-plagued Taylor, this could be another Democrat pick-up.
OH-1
This district, based mainly in Cincinnati, has been historically Republican, but the city has been trending Democrat since the early 1990s, and the GOP's declining fortunes in the Buckeye state mean that Chabot's seat may not be as safe as it might otherwise have been.
OH-14
Steve LaTourette represents a district that is competitive, plus he has an extramarital affar and the self-destructing Ohio GOP pulling him down. Ohio's districts are drawn to favor the GOP, but this one has enough Democrats in it to make an upset possible.
OH-18
Bob Ney might have been safe, but for his dalliances with Tom DeLay. If a conservative to moderate Democrat with good connections to the region challenger him, he might well go down, hurt by his party's decline in Ohio and by his assiciation with the disgraced DeLay.
PA-6
Jim Gerlach barely won in 2004, and you can almost be cartain that Democrats are lining up to challenge him next year. His district voted for Kerry for president, so expect this to be a nasty race, but one that we can almost definitely win ifm we play our cards out right.
PA-8
Mike Fitzpatrick is much more socially conservative than most of his constituents, and barely won in 2004. Like Gerlach, he will almost certainly be challenged, as his district likewise voted for Kerry for president.
TX-22
Tom DeLay has been indicted, and has repeatedly peeled off Republicans in his district to give to other congressmen in more competitive districts. But he may have given away too many fellow Republicans, and just as the main population center of his district (Fort Bend County) has begun to get more Democrat. Add that to a very credible challenger in Nick Lampson and this is a very good pickup chance.
VA-2
This district, made up of Virginia Beach and the eastern shore, has been slowly trending Democrat since the late 1990s, and recently voted for Democrat Tim Kaine for governor. 2004 candidate David Ashe, a Marine veteran of the Iraq War, has already stated his intention to run again, as he lost by only 9 points last year.
VA-11
My congressional district. Tom Davis, the longtime incumbent, was held to barely 60% by a total unknown last year, and despite a gerrymander that was supposed to make the seat more GOP, the district was a statistical tie between Kerry and Bush, and voted easily for Kaine for governor. Fairfax County supervisor Gerry Connolly is mulling a run, and would be almost instantly competitive.
WA-8
Reichert only won this Dem-leaning district on the strength of his capture of serial killer Gary Ridgway. With that story long since yesterday's news, and the GOP's appeal sagging, Reichert could be in trouble next year.
If anyone has more info, or other districts worth adding to this list, go ahead. If anyone lives in any of these districts, feel free to fill me in on the situation on the ground. The first step to winning next year is to find out how those competitive GOP districts feel.