This morning Juan Cole's blog, Informed Comment alerted me to this story from the group blog he shares with Dr. Barnett R. Rubin, another respectable foreign affairs academic:
Barnett Rubin relays a message from a well-connected friend in Washington on the Cheney Administration's plans to roll out a military confrontation with Iran in September.
Dr. Rubin Cross-posted this story last night on DailyKos, but it fell off the list with little attention. It's worth a second shot.
This year, on August 28, President Bush spoke to another veterans' group, the American Legion. He called Iran "the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism," whose "active pursuit of technology that could lead to nuclear weapons threatens to put a region already known for instability and violence under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust." He concluded:
Iran's actions threaten the security of nations everywhere. And that is why the United States is rallying friends and allies around the world to isolate the regime, to impose economic sanctions. We will confront this danger before it is too late.
But this apparently is just test marketing, like Cheney's 2002 speech. After all "from a marketing point of view, you don't introduce new products in August." Today I received a message from a friend who has excellent connections in Washington and whose information has often been prescient. According to this report, as in 2002, the rollout will start after Labor Day, with a big kickoff on September 11. My friend had spoken to someone in one of the leading neo-conservative institutions. He summarized what he was told this way:
They [the source's institution] have "instructions" (yes, that was the word used) from the Office of the Vice-President to roll out a campaign for war with Iran in the week after Labor Day; it will be coordinated with the American Enterprise Institute, the Wall Street Journal, the Weekly Standard, Commentary, Fox, and the usual suspects. It will be heavy sustained assault on the airwaves, designed to knock public sentiment into a position from which a war can be maintained. Evidently they don't think they'll ever get majority support for this--they want something like 35-40 percent support, which in their book is "plenty."
Of course I cannot verify this report. But besides all the other pieces of information about this circulating, I heard last week from a former U.S. government contractor. According to this friend, someone in the Department of Defense called, asking for cost estimates for a model for reconstruction in Asia. The former contractor finally concluded that the model was intended for Iran. This anecdote is also inconclusive, but it is consistent with the depth of planning that went into the reconstruction effort in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I hesitated before posting this. I don't want to spread alarmist rumors. I don't want to lessen the pressure on the Ahmadinejad government in Tehran. But there are too many signs of another irresponsible military adventure from the Cheney-Bush administration for me just to dismiss these reports. I am putting them into the public sphere in the hope of helping to mobilize opposition to a policy that would further doom the efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq and burden our country and the people of the Middle East with yet another unstoppable fountain of bloodshed.
emphasis added by me - S
I looked up Dr. Rubin, and I find he is highly credible, and not someone who is spreading some unfounded rumour from an untrustworthy source.
From his bio:
Dr Rubin received a Ph.D. (1982) and M.A. (1976) from the University of Chicago and a B.A. (1972) from Yale University. He also received a Fulbright Fellowship to study at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales in Paris in 1977-1978. He is currently chair of the Conflict Prevention and Peace Forum (a program of the Social Science Research Council), a member the the Executive Board of Human Rights Watch/Asia, and the Board of the Open Society Institute's Central Eurasia Project. During 1996-98 he served on the Secretary of State's Advisory Committee on Religious Freedom Abroad.
So the Relevant facts to glean from this:
- The administration long ago admitted it views selling the public on a war is the same as selling any old product, and applies standard corporate marketing rules to the practice
- Cheney and the assorted neo-cons have been agitating for war with Iran for some time
- Rubin has one source he trusts who says the neo-conservative mouthpiece organs have received their marching orders for September
- Rubin coincidentally has another source who was asked for reconstruction plans that would be suitable for a post-Iran invasion
- all this is perfectly in character for the people involved
Update:
From the comments, Zappodavenotes a disturbing revelation that Secretary of Defense Gates, was surprised by news of the additional $50B to be requested in the next round of supplementals.
Update 2:
Dr. Rubin has commented below to ensure everyone understands the distinction that his source is not claiming war with Iran will start in September, but that the campaign to promote such a war will begin then. A key distinction if you missed it. In an email to me, Dr. Rubin mentioned he has additional information I will look forward to on his blog, or in his own Diary in the near future.