A look at President Obama's polling numbers in the South, as well as the electoral results from November 2008, indicate that his popularity still lags there, behind even that of other prominent national Democrats. His performance among rural white Southern voters, in particular, was one of the few disappointments in a genuinely impressive electoral victory, and has frequently been chalked up in part to his race.
Nevertheless, at least three African-Americans will be attempting statewide runs, and possibly a fourth, in states in which Obama lost, occasionally by margins as wide or even wider than Al Gore and John Kerry did.
Confirmed for gubernatorial runs are Alabama Rep. Artur Davis and Georgia Attorney General Thurbert Baker, both Democrats. Preparing a run for the Senate is Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, a Republican. Finally, another potential gubernatorial candidate is former Tennessee Rep. Harold Ford Jr., a Democrat (he appears to be considering the race, but apparently hasn't decided whether to run, and is widely expected not to).
Despite an overwhelming victory nationwide - one in which he made major inroads into the South by winning the states of Virginia and North Carolina - President Obama lost all of the above states; he ran quite well in Georgia for a Democrat, but lost 53-47.
He underperformed John Kerry in Tennessee, and barely outperformed Kerry in Alabama (where he got only 10% of the white vote, barely half of what Kerry drew). His performance in those states has frequently been attributed somewhat to his race.
So is it possible for black candidates to win election to the two highest statewide elected offices - the Governorship and the United States Senate - in these four states?
It very probably is, at least in theory. There's a chance that none of these candidates will be successful in their bids (in all probability, Ford isn't even going to run).
You can't really compare past runs in one Southern state to future runs in another - obviously, not all Southern states are the same, or close to it! - but for background, here are the five most serious runs by African-Americans for Governor or Senate in the past twenty years.
The first one was actually a successful one - it was Doug Wilder's run for Governor of Virginia in 1989. Wilder, formerly a state senator and Lieutenant Governor, was the first African-American elected Governor of any American state...and at a time when Virginia was still a solidly Republican state at the presidential level.
The following year, in 1990, Harvey Gantt, the Democratic mayor of Charlotte, North Carolina, ran for the United States Senate against Jesse Helms. Gantt was very competitive in the polls with Helms (one of the most polarizing politicians in U.S. history), and a lot of people thought Gantt would win.
Late in the campaign, Helms ran the following ad, which many people credited with winning him the election:
Helms defeated Gantt, 53-47, in the most controversial Senate election of the cycle, and one which presaged a subsequent Senate election in Tennessee.
Gantt ran for the Senate again in 1996, but Helms won his fifth and final term, 54-46.
The next competitive Senate bid by an African-American in the South was in 2002, when Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk ran against Texas Attorney General John Cornyn for Phil Gramm's old Senate seat. Kirk was considered a strong candidate, but 2002 was not the year for any Democrat to win statewide in Texas; Cornyn won fairly easily, 55-43.
Finally, Ford himself ran for the Senate in 2006, from Tennessee, against Republican Mayor of Chattanooga Bob Corker. He came closer than any black Southerner in memory to winning a Senate seat, but after another ad widely accused of fanning the flames of racism, Corker edged him, 51% to 48%.
That's one win, and three other candidates who ran pretty well, but couldn't quite do it.
So will things be different for the four 2010 candidates? It certainly could. Let's look at them case-by-case.
Davis is pretty well positioned for a gubernatorial run, actually. His campaign has polled his numbers against three of the potential Republicans for the seat (we excluded the numbers against Jack Hawkins, who isn't running):
Anzalone Liszt for Artur Davis. 1/8-14. Registered voters. (No trend lines)
Artur Davis (D) 42
Bradley Byrne (R) 38
Artur Davis (D) 42
Kay Ivey (R) 42
In fact, when voters are informed that Davis is the black congressman from Birmingham, his numbers actually go slightly up:
According to pollster John Anzalone, "While race is an impossible factor to evaluate in any campaign, it is fair to say that when white voters learn that Davis is black, that fact alone does not shift them away from Davis. On balance, when they are told that he is a black congressman from Birmingham, Davis' support actually moves up in a majority of the white subgroups based on gender and age."
Davis will have to get past the Democratic primary to get a shot at the Governorship, though, and he's facing a challenge from Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks and possibly one from State Senator Roger Bedford, both white.
Thurbert Baker has won three elections statewide, the last one with 57% of the vote in 2006. He's a proven vote-getter as Attorney General, and he's been elected in both good election years for Democrats and bad ones.
There are a few other Democrats reportedly interested in the race, including former Governor Roy Barnes (the biggest name in the pool), and House Minority Leader DuBose Porter, so Baker may not get a free ride to the nomination. He could face some problems in the primary from the controversial prosecution of Genarlow Wilson, especially given Baker's announced "tough on crime" platform.
Still, no Democrat in the state has been as successful electorally as Baker has been, so it certainly seems as though he'd stand as good a chance as anyone at the Governorship.
Harold Ford probably isn't going to run for Governor of Tennessee, and he lost his previous statewide bid for Senate. That said, he came very close to winning that race, and it's certainly reasonable to think he could win statewide.
It's going to be pretty tough for a Democrat - any Democrat - to win the Governorship in 2010, and there are other strong candidates looking at the race, possibly stronger ones. One of them is former House Majority Leader Kim McMillan. Still, he'd be a fairly strong candidate if he did run; he's proven that a black candidate can be at least viable statewide in Tennessee.
Finally, there's Williams. He's been elected statewide as Railroad Commissioner, though that isn't necessarily the highest-profile race in the world. He's now preparing to run for the United States Senate if and when Kay Bailey Hutchison resigns her seat.
Republicans love Williams (they always like conservative black Republicans, who feed the myth that they're not exclusively a party for white people), and he should receive strong support from the state and national party.
He'll also have a crowded primary to win, however, and he'll face one of two exceptionally strong Democrats if he does win the primary (John Sharp and Bill White). So if there is any racial prejudice working against him, it could contribute substantially to his defeat. He does, however, have the advantage of being a Republican, the favored party in Texas.
It's possible none of these guys will win. But if they do, here are a few possible reasons white Alabamians, Georgians, Tennesseans and Texans might like these four substantially better than they liked Obama:
- Baker, Davis and Ford are relatively conservative Democrats, and Williams is a Republican. Obama is a pretty liberal Democrat, and these are all fairly conservative states.
- There's a substantial difference between the Governorship, the Senate, and the Presidency; some folks who may be anxious about electing a black President may not have the same level of concern about a Governor or Senator.
- Familiarity probably helps. Baker, Davis, Ford and Williams are all reasonably well known to the voters of their states; you can't very easily call them closet Muslims, or socialists, or play on the kind of "otherness" we saw employed against Barack Obama (a Northerner with a "funny name", who was called a Muslim, a socialist, whose birth certificate was challenged, etc.)
- If the sky doesn't fall during Obama's first term, people who were formerly apprehensive about electing a black President might very possibly be more favorably disposed towards electing black candidates in the future. Obviously, we expect the sky won't fall.
We'll have to see how things actually shake out. But there's substantial reason to be optimistic that 2010 might see another black Governor or black Senator, in a state that Obama lost.
It would certainly be a nice herald of a new political era in the South to see such an influx of African Americans winning high statewide office.