The February military offensive in Helmand province Afghanistan has failed.
"There was no security," said Haji Mohammed Hassan, a tribal elder whose fear of the Taliban prompted him to leave Marjah two weeks ago for the relative safety of Helmand's nearby provincial capital, Lashkar Gah.
"By day there is government," he said. "By night it's the Taliban."
General McChrystal came as close to admitting defeat as a military man can.
There aren't enough U.S. and Afghan forces to provide the security that's needed to win the loyalty of wary locals. The Taliban have beheaded Afghans who cooperate with foreigners in a creeping intimidation campaign. The Afghan government hasn't dispatched enough local administrators or trained police to establish credible governance, and now the Taliban have begun their anticipated spring offensive.
"This is a bleeding ulcer right now," McChrystal told a group of Afghan officials, international commanders in southern Afghanistan and civilian strategists who are leading the effort to oust the Taliban fighters from Helmand.
During the February offensive in Marjah civilians suffered heavy casualties. Heavy civilian deaths including the killings of women and children generated strong anger against Americans.
The British commander in southern Afganistan British Maj. Gen. Nick Carter, also admitted his plans were failing in response to a query from General McChrystal.
"You would have to put about five brigades in to achieve the effect you're talking about and, even then, I bet the Taliban would get through, because it's in the minds of people."
We are not winning the hearts and minds of the people, the sine qua non of winning a counter insurgency. Staying longer will not win over hearts and minds. It would make us the hated foreign invader.
Events on the ground are proving that President Obama's plan to defeat the Taliban by July, 2011, then turn security over to the government of Afghanistan, is not working. The Kabul government is not trusted or respected in the south. The Taliban remains in control in the hearts and minds of the people of Helmand province. And there's nothing we can do that will change that.