After going 0 for 4 in elections where the President campaigned on behalf of the candidate in question, our own Dante Atkins made an astute observation:
And while some have used the results to question Obama's star power and campaigning potential for the rest of the midterm cycle, what actually seems open to more question is our President's political instincts.
It also seems reasonable to question the effectiveness of the President's political organization. It is possible the "bubble" of the White House has numbed the political instincts of a great campaigner and his staff. The President has a significant role to play in off-year elections. Historically, the President's political party loses seats in Congress. But strong Presidents have occasionally bucked the trend and prevented a crippling of their agenda. This requires a campaign of sorts, albeit not as large and complex as a presidential campaign. Will a political campaign run out of Washington, not Chicago, be as effective as the previous campaign given an anti-incumbent political environment?
David Plouffe, if reporting is correct, has been given charge of overseeing the overall campaign by posting as outside adviser to the DNC. His strategy is simple: get 15 million first-time Obama voters to turnout again. Mid-term elections are usually party base turnout elections. The broader electorate is not fully engaged because no major candidate is on the ballot. Turnout falls down to mostly committed partisans of either party. Plouffe's strategy is to engage them once again betting they will support Democrats. The Vote 2010 initiative is a gamble to change the composition of the electorate by bringing first time voters into the Democratic base. Driven by MyBO it will rely on the 2008 team of community organizers and volunteers. So the "change the electorate" model is still in place.
What has changed is organization. In the 2008 campaign, there was tight control over the campaign war chest and clear lines of authority. There was singularity of purpose. Now, it is not clear how much control Plouffe has over the DNC's bank account and how his role interfaces with that of DNC Chairman Tim Kaine. Mitch Stewart is the executive director of Organizing for America and will continue in his current role. But Jim Messina, Deputy White House Chief of Staff, has been given control over day-to-day operations of the 2010 campaign. With his job in the White House, Messina reports to Rahm Emmanuel. But does he also report to Plouffe? Does Stewart report to Messina is he his equaly reporting to Plouffe. How does Messina carry out his White House duties of governing while also actively monitoring the nuts and bolts of a national political operation? Patrick Gaspard is the White House Political Director and will handle the job of coordinating with individual Congressional and Senate campaigns. Does he report to someone in the White House or to Plouffe? It is unclear who will be charge of messaging and communications, a job Anita Dunn performed superbly in 2008. Who will serve as chief spokesperson for Vote 2010? This is all very different from the clear lines of authority and unity of command we saw in the 2008 campaign.
Any White House reacts to events more often than creating them. Unforeseen events (like oil spills), could distract this team from focused engagement on Senate and House races. There are also divergent timetables and political interests. For example, it may prove politically prudent for Charlie Melancon in Louisiana to attack the administration over the oil spill as he takes on David Vitter. This site has noted the intensity gap among base Democratic demographics. How is the administration going to close that gap when it has so far failed to deliver on key issues like unemployment, immigration, and LGBT equality? Plouffe has mentioned financial reform as a key contrasting issue, but this may prove weak tea if the banks announce record profits for Q3 in mid October.
Unlike the 2008 campaign, the lines of authority and responsibility are not clear. We do not know if primary lead for the campaign is in the White House or at the DNC, and who has responsibility over the war chest. During the campaign, Obama made all final decisions. Mr. Obama has much greater responsibilities now and he can't be expected to oversee the operation of turning out those first-time voters or double-checking that campaign funds are being used wisely. While Plouffe has been given overall command, those reporting to him have other responsibilities outside of winning the election. Furthermore, playing defense by using an issue like financial reform isn't exactly going to gin up the partisan fire of those first time voters. It may well be that the best defense is going on the attack against an increasingly extreme Republican Party. An outside-the-White-House based organization, with portfolios and responsibilities clearly outlined, would make for a more effective operation overall.