Talking Points Memo has the Skinny.
In addition to acknowledging that seniors, disabled and elderly people would be hit with much higher out-of-pocket health care costs, the CBO finds that by the end of the 10-year budget window, public debt will actually be higher than it would be if the GOP just did nothing.
Under the so-called "extended baseline scenario" -- a.k.a. projections based on current law -- debt held by the public will grow to 67 percent of GDP by 2022. Under the GOP plan, public debt would reach 70 percent of GDP in the same window.
Even though this isn't a review of the full legislative language, since that hasn't been provided to the CBO yet, the indications are still clear and for the math challenged - which seems to generally include all TeaPublicans - a debt of 70% GDP is Bigger than one of of 67% of GDP. So much for Ryan's "Sober, Serious Solution".
Read the PDF of the preliminary report yourself: http://www.cbo.gov/...
Of course the TeaPublicans have now been trained to ignore anything the CBO says after it has repeatedly scored the Affordable Care Act as reducing the deficit. They argue that the "CBO has to accept the assumptions provided by the White House". That in fact, was Congressman Paul Ryan's own argument - which was wrong by the way.
But this time, the Assumptions are all his and the numbers in the plan still don't work.
The problem of course stems from Ryan's Addiction to Tax Cuts for people who don't need them.
In other words, the spending cuts Republicans would realize in the first 10 years would be outpaced by deficit increasing tax-cuts, which Ryan also proposes.
It's also startling what the CBO says will happen to those people who in 2022 instead of joining Medicare, which will essentially be ended, will be given Health Care Stamps for their medical needs.
If the current Medicare system were allowed to continue, CBO found that an average 65-year-old beneficiary's costs would be only 25 percent of what it'd be in the individual private insurance market. Under the GOP plan, those costs would jump to 68 percent.
If we left things the way they are now, which means maintaining the Affordable Care Act that the Ryan Budget Repeals, Medicare recipients would save 25% compared to those on the private market. (Also maintaining the ACA extends the life of the Medicare Trust Fund by another 12 years). And those forced out of Medicare and only Ryan's Health Stamp Program would be paying 68% More.
Just as President Obama described yesterday the value of these Discount Coupons (as Rachel likes to call them) would be about $8,000 adjusted for base inflation - however the CBO estimates that the actual cost of private insurance than Seniors would now have to buy would be $15,000!
That leaves them about $7,000 short of what they need, meaning they either forgo care or pay it out of their own pocket.
They even provided a Chart.
And what it does to Medicaid isn't all that great either. Instead of dumping the costs only Seniors, they dump those costs onto the States - which doesn't solve the cost problem it's simply making it someone elses problem.
Chairman Ryan’s proposal would shift some of the burden of Medicaid’s growing costs to the states. It would, however, relieve some of the cost burden for states by repealing the provisions related to Medicaid in PPACA and the Reconciliation Act and, starting in 2022, eliminating certain benefits for the elderly under Medicaid. On balance, federal payments to states under the proposal would be significantly lower than under current law.
CBO compared federal payments to states under the proposal with federal spending for Medicaid services that is estimated to occur if spending for provisions related to Medicaid in PPACA and the Reconciliation Act and certain benefits for the elderly are excluded. Under the proposal, CBO estimates, federal spending for Medicaid would be 35 percent lower in 2022 and 49 percent lower in 2030 than currently projected federal spending with those adjustments.
If the costs of medical services for Medicaid enrollees continued to rise faster than the growth in the block grant amounts, states would have to decide how to respond. Under the proposal, states would have additional flexibility to design and manage their programs to achieve greater efficiencies in the delivery of care. Because of the magnitude of the reduction in federal Medicaid spending under the proposal, however, states would face significant challenges in achieving sufficient cost savings through efficiencies to mitigate the loss of federal funding. To maintain current service levels in the Medicaid program, states would probably need to consider additional changes, such as reducing their spending on other programs or raising additional revenues. Alternatively, states could reduce the size of their Medicaid programs by cutting payment rates for doctors, hospitals, or nursing homes; reducing the scope of benefits covered; or limiting eligibility.
Basically the States would have to increase taxes or cut benefits - the way the Governor Jan Brewer in Arizona decided to eliminate that states Medicaid organ transplant program, a move that has already led to the death of at least one of those potential recipients.
Despite Ryan's claims that we need to take on the budget problem his own proposal first dramatically increases the deficit, sticks it to Seniors, States and then the poor and disabled - and finally doesn't come anywhere near balance until the year 2050!
That's not a "Pathway to Prosperity" - it's a Pathway to Destitution for far too many Americans.
Vyan
Updated by Vyan at Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 09:35 PM PDT
Here's where a TeaPublican admits that the Ryan plan doesn't control costs, it forces Seniors to try and go shopping for a better deal, a strategy that has worked oh-so-very-well for everyone already purchasing private insurance.
Updated by Vyan at Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 09:38 PM PDT
Former RNC Chair also basically admit the Ryan plan to save "costs" is no plan at all.