Official portrait of Barack Obama
Two new polls, in South Carolina and West Virginia, reveal Mike Huckabee leading the Republican field should he choose to enter the race. And for the first time, Donald Trump is running first in a state, tied for the lead with Huckabee in West Virginia.
First, the critical primary state of South Carolina:
Winthrop University. South Carolina "Republicans and Republican leaners":
Mike Huckabee (R): 18
Mitt Romney (R) 16
Donald Trump (R): 10
Sarah Palin (R): 9
Newt Gingrich (R): 8
Chris Christie (R): 6
Michele Bachmann (R): 4
Ron Paul (R): 3
Tim Pawlenty (R): 2
Herman Cain (R): 2
Haley Barbour (R): 2
Jon Huntsman (R): 1
Mitch Daniels (R): 1
Gary Johnson (R): 0
Huckabee has a small lead, but with the leader at 19% there's no clear favorite in South Carolina. Trump actually does pretty well, Sarah Palin seems to be fading, and evidently voters aren't very familiar with the media darlings du jour (Huntsman, Daniels, and Tim Pawlenty's video editor).
Now we know why Haley Barbour dropped out, I guess. Even in South Carolina, where one might expect the Mississippi native to perform well, Barbour was underperforming Herman Cain.
Bonus: President Barack Obama's approval rating is not all that bad in South Carolina considering the conservative bent of the state. 43% of respondents approve of the President's job performance while 47% disapprove.
On to West Virginia, where the President is certainly not quite so popular:
Public Policy Polling. West Virginia (Republican primary)":
Donald Trump: 24
Mike Huckabee: 24
Sarah Palin: 13
Mitt Romney: 11
Newt Gingrich: 9
Tim Pawlenty: 4
Michele Bachmann: 3
Ron Paul: 3
Well, that was easy for The Donald. It'll be interesting to see PPP's Presidential head-to-heads against Barack Obama; this may well be the first state where Trump actually leads the President.
Trump has jumped pretty quickly to a serious frontrunner. The fact that the President has now legitimized the birther movement ought only to help him. And birthers are popular among WV Republicans, per pollster Tom Jensen:
Trump is riding the birther train to his lead in West Virginia. Only 22% of Republican voters there think Barack Obama was born in the country to 53% who think he was not and 26% who are unsure. With the voters who think Obama was born in the US Trump gets just 15%, putting him in third place behind Huckabee and Romney. But with the folks who think Obama was not Trump gets 30% putting him 8 points ahead of Huckabee and allowing him the overall tie.
Frightening.