Donald Trump has had one of the quickest rises and falls in the history of Presidential politics. Last month we found him leading the Republican field with 26%. In the space of just four weeks he's dropped all the way down to 8%, putting him in a tie for fifth place with Ron Paul.
PPP
Oh, what a well-timed long-form birth certificate can do.
So the GOP is back to the usual suspects.
Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are at the top of the GOP race with 19% and 18% respectively. Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin are further back at 13% and 12%, followed by Trump and Paul at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 7%, and Tim Pawlenty at 5%.
The Sarah™ is also fading. She was once one of the top three, but now Newt has pulled even. This may be because the GOP "pretty lady who is guano crazy" vote is being split with Michele Bachmann (and I acknowledge that your mileage may vary on the pretty part).
We also looked at a fair number of alternate Republican universes in which various candidates don't actually end up making the race. With Trump out Romney leads Huckabee 21-20 with Gingrich at 15% and Palin at 14%. With Trump and Huckabee out Romney is tops at 24% to 20% for Gingrich, 17% for Palin, and 12% for Paul. With Trump and Palin out Huckabee has the advantage with 24% to Romney's 22%, and Gingrich's 20%. And with none of Trump, Huckabee, and Palin running Romney gets 28% to 26% for Gingrich, 12% for Paul, and 11% for Bachmann.
To put that in a simpler form if Huckabee runs it's between him and Romney right now, and if Huckabee doesn't run it's between Romney and Gingrich right now. And there's plenty of time for other folks to work their way into that mix.
But I read more into this. Removing Trump adds his 8% to Romney (+3), Gingrich and Palin pick up +2, and Huckabee gets +1.
Removing Huckabee and Trump frees up 27% of the vote - and Romney gets 5% of that. Presumably 3% of that still comes from the Trump voters, so only about 1/10th of Huckabee voters go to Romney. Gingrich gains 7% - presumably 2% from Trump so the odious Newt gains 5% from Huckabee, or roughly a quarter. The Sarah™ gains a total of 5% - presumably 3% of Huckabee's voters. Which indicates that Huckabee voters like Gingrich more than they like Palin.
A lot of pundits (including moi) considered that Huckabee and Palin were natural rivals for the religious right voter. These results indicate that the twice divorced multiple-adulterous newly Roman Catholic Gingrich is a force to be reckoned with in with those voters. The. mind. boggles. This brings up Political Wire's Cartoon of the Day.
If Trump, Huckabee, and Palin drop out (freeing up 9+19+13=41% from the original poll) Romney rises to 28%, gaining 10% or roughly 1/4 of the freed-up voters. The slimy amphibian rises to 26%, a gain of 13% or roughly 1/3 of the freed-up voters. In this scenario Ron Paul gains 4% of the 41%, or roughly 1/10th, and Michele Bachmann does the same. Therefore, taking out Trump, Huckabee, and Palin leaves roughly 10% of the GOP electorate shrugging their shoulders.
I think Romney's support is broad but not deep. If he is not the prohibitive frontrunner early I think he's in trouble. It seems that whoever is removed, some other candidate picks up more of their strength than Romney does. I think this means that if the election turns into a process of elimination, as each candidate is eliminated more voters will gravitate to not-Romney than gravitate to Romney.