Perhaps as a defense mechanism, a number of Democrats solemnly proclaimed (in the wake of their disastrous 2010 midterm election losses) that it would be a matter of time before voters would rebuff the "change" being offered by the GOP.
As it happens, that defensive proclamation turned out to be somewhat prophetic. Several pollsters affirm that there is real movement in voter preferences at the Congressional level, and a pre-Osama CNN poll seems to have stated it the most clearly:
Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN (4/29-5/1, registered voters, no trendlines)
If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district? (IF UNSURE:) As of today, who do you lean more toward?
Democratic Candidate: 50
Republican Candidate: 46
Neither/No Opinion: 4
CNN's polling director, Keating Holland, notes that part of the reason for this shift in electoral fortunes on the House level is owed to some traditional Democratic constituencies reverting to form after an aberrant 2010:
"Now the Democrats are seeing some of their natural constituencies coming home. In the latest generic ballot, Democrats have a ten-point lead among women, and a nine-point lead among voters who never attended college. But the Republicans still have a plurality of the Independent voters, 47 percent to 43 percent."
(Note: In 2010, the gender gap was considerably smaller, those who never attended college favored the GOP in exit polling, and the Republicans took 56% of the Independent vote)
CNN is not alone in forecasting a certain degree of buyers remorse. Our own Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation Poll last week showed a 43-42 lead for Democrats on this question, after showing a narrow Republican lead more often than not since the midterm elections.
Note: Accidentally got PPP and Democracy Corps mixed up. Thanks to Andgarden for catching it in the comments!
Even the pollster of record for the GOP, Rasmussen, has seen the generic edge for the GOP evaporate over the past few weeks. After Rasmussen gave the Republicans a generic ballot advantage of nearly double digits earlier in the year, even the House of Ras has the GOP's edge down to 2-3 points over the past three weeks.
What gives here? It could be as simple as the fact that the very voter discontent that propelled the GOP into the House majority is now working against them. It could also be that the GOP overestimated their mandate, and are finding selling their legislative prescriptions to be tough sledding.
Whatever the case may be, the movement at this point is pretty indisputable.
Of course, generic ballot tests are not a perfect predictor of actual House results. Not only are there miles to go before ballots actually get cast (special elections excluded, of course), but there are nearly 40 states that still need to put new district maps out on the table. The GOP, who wrested redistricting control in a number of states in their 2010 landslide, will have the resources to dent any momentum established by Democrats heading into the 2012 cycle.
But it is clear that any wind that was at the back of the GOP after their 60+ seat romp in the House in 2010 has dissipated. Whether Democrats can exploit that momentum change and diminish (or even reverse) the Republican advantage in the House remains to be seen.