Bin Laden is dead. Will his death have any effect on Canadian voters going to the polls today?
This IS a diary about the Canadian election but I hope you will forgive an initial digression. I have been living in Montreal for the past seven years and came home from the movies last night thinking about today’s election and how the NDP’s recent strong showing in the polls will affect Canada’s future.
I heard Obama’s announcement when I turned on the television and was surprised at the emotions that grew quickly inside me. At first I was thinking about the political implications for Obama but as CNN showed the crowds gathering at Ground Zero I started flashing back to memories of that September morning... which for me was a September afternoon.
In 2001 I was living in Brussels, Belgium and on September 11, I played golf with business associates at the Belfrey golf course near Birmingham, England, where the Ryder Cup was scheduled to get underway the following week. The Towers were both on fire when I walked into the clubhouse and I watched the unravelling events we all remember so vividly on a small television mounted high on the wall between the Pro Shop and the Bar.
What I remember most is looking at all the Ryder Cup construction (metal bleachers, hospitality tents, signage...) outside and thinking, ¨The Ryder Cup is not going to happen.¨ Sure enough, it was cancelled the next day. That evening I caught a flight from Birmingham to Brussels, making me one of a very few Americans who flew on September 11, after the attacks. All of the televisions were turned off at the Birmingham airport and in Brussels, the normally stoic customs officials offered their sympathies when they saw my US passport.
I am still a little shaky this morning but life goes on and the Canadian election is happening so, for the Canadian political junkies, I offer a summary of the election coverage which fills the first 10 pages of Montreal’s French language daily ¨La Presse¨this morning.
Update: Please check out this excellent diary by Heritage Watch which gives an in-depth, province-by-province analysis of the potential outcomes from today's vote.
Update 2: I wanted to add this superb summary from commenter kyril, on why the NDP would be would be good for Canada.
There are two planks in their platform that are controversial on DKos: they're anti-nuke and pro-strict gun control. The latter is relatively mainstream in Canada (keeping in mind that it's really just urban handgun control -rifles and shotguns are largely unrestricted). The former is a matter of some debate, but it's not a major issue in electoral politics.
Other than that, the NDP platform is for all intents and purposes the same as the American left-wing blogosphere platform. Green energy, ending subsidies to oil companies, strengthening universal healthcare, strengthening the social safety net, taxing big corporations, supporting labour, building infrastructure, equalizing standard of living across the country, creating jobs, funding public education, public funding of elections, abolishing the unelected Canadian Senate, instant runoff voting or proportional representation, focus on crime prevention and rehabilitation instead of punishment, and some talk of drug law reform.
The major issue hurting them is a lack of experience running government at the federal level. They've been a "third party" since inception. But of the four major parties, they're the standout top choice for anyone who's pro-environment, pro-union, and pro-democracy.
¨La Presse¨ notes that Canadians are going to the polls for the fourth time in seven years. If Canadians vote more often than Americans, at least they have the decency to get it over with quickly and the result of the 2011 election will be known after only 37 days of campaigning.
This will be a repeat for those commenters who joined my diary discussion on Friday, but for new readers here is a short primer on Canadian elections.
The Parliamentary System
Canada’s political structure is based on the British parliamentary system. Elections must be held a maximum of five years apart but they can and do occur more often. There are no term limits in Canada and all of the country’s 308 federal electoral districts (called ridings in Canada) are contested each time there is an election. Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party currently hold power in a minority government, so-called because the Conservatives won 144 ridings in the last election, leaving them short of the 155 required to form a majority.
The representatives from each riding hold a ¨seat¨ in Canada’s parliament where they vote on legislation in the same way as the US House and Senate. In Canada a simple majority is required to pass legislation hence the importance of the 155 seats.
Canada’s last election was held in 2008 when the Conservatives won their current minority of 144 seats. The Liberal Party was second with 77 seats followed by the Bloc Québécois (BQ) with 49 seats and the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 37 seats. There is a Green Party in Canada but it did not win a single seat in 2008. In 2006 the Conservatives also won a minority victory overthrowing another minority government won by the LIberalsin 2004.
In a multiple party system, one party can win a majority government with much less than 50% of the vote and Harper is trying hard to convince Canadians to give him that majority. On the morning of the election here is the analysis of each party’s chances from four journalists who followed the leaders throughout the campaign.
NDP – Jack Layton
Paul Journet from Toronto makes a joke about Cane Air in reference to the NDP campaign plane. Party leader Jack Layton is recovering from cancer and hip surgery, and uses a cane to compensate for a heavy limp. The NDP, Canada’s most progressive party, has never won a national election nor even finished second which would make them the official opposition party. But Jack Layton dominated the leadership debates in French and English and is enjoying an unprecedented surge in popular support.
The NDP have never won more than 43 seats in a national election and current polls suggest they may win that many in the province of Quebec alone! If Layton finishes second he could force a complicated backroom negotiation which might even result in him becoming Prime Minister as part of a coalition government with the Liberals or the Bloc Québécois.
BQ – Gilles Duceppe
Vincent Brosseau-Pouliot has been following Gilles Duceppe, the leader of the Bloc Québécois, a regional party that advocates Quebec secession from Canada.The Bloc Québécois was born in 1991 out of the Quebec wing of the federal Conservative Party after negotiations over the Canadian Constitution failed to win the endorsement of Quebec.
The Bloc has dominated the Quebec political scene since 1993 and currently holds 49 of the 75 districts (or ridings as they are called in Canada) in the province. Their presence as a regional party is the main reason for the three successive minority governments. Without significant numbers in Quebec (the Conservatives currently hold only 10 seats) any party hoping for a majority of 155 must dominate the other 233 ridings in the country.
In the most surprising twist in this year’s campaign, the NDP, who only hold one seat in Quebec, are leading in the polls, as Quebecers, after years of supporting the Bloc, seem to be looking for a change. Confronted with his terrible poll results, Duceppe had been reduced to quoting Yogi Berra, ¨It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.¨
Liberals - Michael Ignatieff
Hugo de Grandré reports that, in the middle of the NHL playoffs, Ignatief, smarter than Duceppe, is using hockey rather than baseball metaphors and referring to the 3rd period of Game 7. Unfortunately for Ignatieff, the NDP scored 5 goals in the second period and the Liberals, for the first time in their political history may fall to a third place finish.
Conservatives – Stephen Harper
Stephen Harper has long been recognized as a cold fish by Canadians. An obsessive control freak, he hungers for a majority position from which most pundits agree he would govern from somewhere to the right of Scott Walker.
Malorie Beauchemin writes about getting onto the campaign plane and seeing Harper in the first row.
¨His personal assistant is standing beside his seat, screening passing journalists from Harper, whose eyes are riveted on his computer screen. Not a hello, not a smile, not a glance, much less a handshake. This is the image of the Harper campaign, controlled, framed, protected, and hermetic, with the least possible contact with the ¨real¨ world.¨
The Result
Polls are not always reliable but the latest projections suggest the Conservatives will win the election but Harper will not win his precious majority. The NDP are poised to become the official opposition, relegating the Liberals to a third-place finish and the Bloc to a footnote of history.
If these results materialize one thing is sure; Jack Layton will soon be negotiating with new leaders of the Bloc, the Liberals AND the Conservatives as Duceppe, Ignatieff and Harper will surely be thrown out by their respective party's frustrated supporters.