Ezra Klein:
As for the mystery of Obama’s plummeting poll numbers, I’m not yet convinced there’s any mystery here at all. There were two weird poll results this week: Obama dropped four points in the Washington Post/ABC poll and six points in the CBS News/NY Times poll. Those drops were sharp, and didn’t appear to coincide with any particularly significant negative event, which makes them strange. Meanwhile, his approval ratings rose by one point in Gallup’s poll, two points in the Reuters/Ipsos poll, and three points in Pew’s poll, all of which were taken subsequent to the Post/Times polls.
So until more polls show a significant drop for the president, I’m inclined to write this off as noise.
Jonathan Bernstein:
That big Obama poll drop? It never happened.
Steve Benen:
Much of the political world gasped this week when the latest New York Times/CBS News poll found President Obama's approval rating down sharply over the last month, dropping from 50% to 41% for no apparent reason. Though the same poll still showed Obama leading the Republican field, the nine-point drop in support was one of the largest drops any president has seen in the poll in the last 15 years, and reversed a general positive trend for the president.
In many circles, Democrats had to resist the urge to panic, while Republicans started walking with a spring in their step. Both, however, were asking the same question: what happened to cause such a decline?
The answer, in all likelihood, is nothing.
Jon Cohen:
A president’s overall approval rating is a very important number -- perhaps the most important single number in politics -- as this week’s fracas over whether President Obama’s numbers are up, down or holding steady suggests.
But looking only at the approval side of the equation can be deceptive. In particular, overlooking the big differences in “no opinion” answers can mislead poll watchers.
PEW RESEARCH CENTER
Charles Blow:
What should really give Republicans sleepless nights (if the numbers hold) is the demographic groups currently supporting Obama. In the Pew poll, Obama outperforms Romney by 20 points among all women, and by 31 points among women aged 19-49. He outperforms Romney by 28 points among young people 18-29 years old and ties him among people 65 and older. And he outperforms Romney in every region of the country and among every income group.
CSM:
GOP leaders hoped a long primary season would engage voters and help build organization, just as it had for Barack Obama in 2008. They didn't count on how toxic the 2012 race would turn.
Ron Brownstein:
Rick Santorum's twin victories in Alabama and Mississippi Tuesday night did more to reaffirm than realign the basic patterns of support driving the GOP presidential race.
The narrow wins of his opponent underscored front-runner Mitt Romney's inability to expand beyond his base of support in the GOP's upscale managerial wing. But the results also highlighted the durable limits of Santorum's support beyond his core constituency of evangelical Christians. Indeed, the close races in both states did as much to highlight the weaknesses as strengths of both of the leading contenders.
Stephen Dworkin:
... Santorum is continuing the venomous stereotype that those of us who study and are concerned about resource consumption, climate change, the effects of contamination, and preserving biodiversity are equivalent to pagan Earth-worshippers (and, indeed, that the entirely separate few who actually engage in such worship should not be protected by the First Amendment). The insinuation that making our society more sustainable is favoring the environment over humans is absurd, especially because environmental activists are among those most concerned for our species’ future. Renewable energy, less reliance on fossil fuels—these are causes that should appeal to any thinking person, regardless of their religious beliefs.