Usually, here at the Wrap we tend not to fixate over a single poll. Especially when said poll emanates from that favorite of the Right, the House of Rasmussen. But their release today of their national tracking poll, coupled with a new state poll, raises an interesting quandary: past history makes it unlikely that both of their polls are correct.
First, the numbers. Then, the analysis.
GOP PRIMARY POLLING:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 35, Santorum 27, Gingrich 15, Paul 10
GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-45); Obama d. Santorum (46-45)
FLORIDA (Rasmussen): Obama d. Santorum (45-43); Obama d. Romney (46-43)
My issue with the twin billing by the Ras-sies, right after the jump.
Start with an important caveat—yes, this is one poll, and yes, margins of error still apply. But there is an absolutely fascinating dichotomy in those two general election numbers from the House of Ras today. It is a circumstance that I would posit has about a 1-in-100 chance of actually happening in November.
If you buy stock in Rasmussen's numbers today, then it looks like the president is struggling nationally, but holding his own in critical Florida. In fact, when looking at relative margins, Rasmussen has the president doing four or five points better on the margin in Florida than he is doing nationally.
The problem with that, simply put, is that a Democrat outperforming his national numbers in the Sunshine State has not happened in the modern era. Look at the last five presidential elections, and you will see that the Democratic nominee has never done better in Florida than he has nationally:
2008:
Nationally: D+7.27
FLORIDA: D+2.81
2004:
Nationally: R+2.46
FLORIDA: R+5.01
2000:
Nationally: D+0.51
FLORIDA: R+0.01
1996:
Nationally: D+8.51
FLORIDA: D+5.70
1992:
Nationally: D+5.56
FLORIDA: R+1.89
To recap, with the exception of 2000 (when the Republican relative edge was an insignificant 0.52 percent), Democrats have always ran somewhere between 2 to 7 percent behind their national margins in Florida. So, Rasmussen's revelation today that Obama leads Romney in Florida (granted, they had Santorum one point closer), but trails nationally seems ... a bit odd.
Here's a safe bet, if Mitt Romney actually outstrips Barack Obama in the popular vote in November, he'll carry Florida, as well. It is exceedingly hard to believe otherwise.