If this perpetually unpredictable Republican presidential primary has taught us anything, it is that four days are tantamount to a lifetime as it relates to the horserace and any notions of "campaign momentum."
That said, as we head into the weekend before the potentially pivotal Illinois Republican primary, you'd probably rather be Mitt Romney than Rick Santorum.
GOP PRIMARY POLLING:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 36, Santorum 28, Gingrich 13, Paul 10
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Romney 37, Santorum 28, Gingrich 17, Paul 10
NATIONAL (YouGov): Romney 28, Santorum 24, Gingrich 21, Paul 10
ILLINOIS (Rasmussen): Romney 41, Santorum 32, Gingrich 14, Paul 7
ILLINOIS (We Ask America/Fox Chicago): Romney 37, Santorum 31, Gingrich 14, Paul 8
GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Obama tied with Romney (46-46); Obama d. Santorum (49-43)
NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama d. Romney (48-44); Obama d. Paul (48-42); Obama d. Santorum (50-43); Obama d. Gingrich (51-41)
ARIZONA (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (51-40); Santorum d. Obama (45-44)
A few thoughts, and a worthy link to read, after the jump.
Before we delve into those Illinois numbers, do take the time to read a most compelling interpretation of this week's polling out of the Deep South, and why it was ultimately off the mark, by Pollster co-founder Mark Blumenthal.
Now, about those Illinois numbers, it is worth noting that polls taken both before and after the "Deep South" primaries on Tuesday yield little to no difference in their outcomes. Perhaps a bit surprising: Any movement, however incremental, appears to be in the direction of Mitt Romney, who easily got the worst of it on Tuesday night.
The Market Shares poll conducted last weekend on behalf of WGN-TV and the Chicago Tribune gave Mitt Romney a four-point edge in the Land of Lincoln. The two polls released in the past 24 hours (one from We Ask America, and the other from the House of Ras) actually have Romney stretching his advantage out to somewhere between 6-9 points.
This runs counter to the impact primary election "momentum" has had in previous weeks. The conventional wisdom, which I echoed the other day, would have been to see the renewal of the "Santorum Surge" we saw after Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado. Quite the contrary: movement here has been very limited, and most assuredly not in the direction of Rick Santorum.
One caveat, however, the sample size, such as it is, is tiny. One of the oddities of the past two days has been just how little polling we have seen, both in Illinois and elsewhere. Perhaps the weekend will bring a few new polls to add to the argument, one way or the other.