Nate Silver has a new piece up tonight which analyzes a couple of polls conducted since the Ryan announcement.
The short summary: his debut numbers are most similar to Dan Quayle's. And not far off from Sarah Palin.
Details below.
The two polls are by ABC News/Washington Post and USA Today/Gallup. In the first, which measures Ryan's favorability/unfavorability he clocks in at 38 fav, 33 unfav. Doesn't sound awful until Nate points out that "debut" polls are usually the high point for a candidate. So Ryan is at +5. How does that compare to others? As usual, Nate found some numbers which I'll summarize like this:
DEBUT POLLS
Cheney +17
Lieberman +33
Edwards +25
Biden +23
Palin +20
Ryan +5 is not sounding so great, huh? The other VP candidates listed above declined either a little or a lot as election day neared. If Ryan follows that pattern, he'll be under water very soon.
Nate also found similar data, although with different question wording, from CBS. More years are covered. Here are those spreads:
HW Bush +19
Ferraro +15
Bentsen +10
Quayle +6
Gore +23
Kemp +20
Lieberman +27
Cheney +17
Edwards +29
Palin +11
Biden +21
On this data the only one in single digits was Quayle.
The other new poll was by USA Today/Gallup. They asked what voters thought of Romney's choice. Was it Excellent, Pretty Good, Fair or Poor? About Romney's choice (Ryan) 39% said Excellent or Pretty Good and 42% said Fair or Poor. That's a spread of -3. How does that compare with other debut VPs?
Palin +9
Biden +14
Edwards +36
Lieberman +25
Cheney +21
Quayle -8
Again, Ryan joins the only one on the list with a negative number. Nate says there's a chance for Ryan to improve but he says the "smart money" suggests otherwise. On Ryan's selection, Nate says:
My reaction to it has become more tepid as I have read accounts of how the choice was made.
He says it was not a data-driven choice, but one made by gut feel.
Ryan is floundering for reasons very different from Quayle or Palin. He's not likely perceived as being in over his "potatoe" head. But a drag on the ticket is a drag on the ticket. And that's what this looks like, from the early data.