This is not your father's blizzard. This is your father's blizzard on steroids. Weather records show that winter storms are stronger than they used to be.
Winter storms have increased in frequency and intensity since the 1950s, and their tracks have shifted northward over the United States.
The extraordinarily increase in heat content of the north Atlantic ocean along the east coast is providing the energy to make the blizzard of January 2015 an extremely intense and dangerous winter storm. This is climate change. This is what happens when Gulf Stream eddies jump northwards past previous limits providing vast amounts of heat to winter storms that derive much of their strength from the ocean's heat.
The Boston office of the National Weather Service has issued a warning for hurricane force winds on the Cape Cod that will blow down trees and power lines, causing prolonged power outages under blizzard conditions. The NWS warns that new inlets may form on barrier islands making some areas inaccessible. This is an extremely dangerous situation.
Snowfall could exceed 36 inches in some locations according to NWS Boston.
NWS Boston is warning that more than 36 inches of snow could fall in a north south band west of Cape Cod and in a parallel band in western Connecticut and Massachusetts.
The stronger the contrast between cold Arctic air and warm Atlantic water, all else kept equal, the stronger the noreaster. The developing blizzard is pulling warm air from the southeast over waters that are much warmer than normal. One large eddy is about 15 °F above normal (anomaly greater than 8°C). This record high amount of ocean heat may fuel this blizzard to intensify to historic proportions.
North Atlantic ocean sea surface temperatures are extraordinarily high for January off the coast of north America.
The very abnormally warm water extends to 300 feet deep and greater. Thus strong winds may continue to pull heat and water vapor from these waters for days. These waters are one of the earth's regions where the earth has been storing large amounts heat that has been added to the earth's climate system by increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The Gulf Stream has taken heat from tropical waters into the temperate zone, expanding the "Atlantic warm pool". This expanded pool of warm water is fueling stronger winter storms and gave hurricane Sandy its exceptional strength as a hybrid storm with a mix of tropical and winter storm characteristics.
Water as warm as 70°F is found at 40°N at 300 feet depth on January 26, 2015. This is extraordinary.
Skeptics may scoff at the idea that warmer ocean waters may cause heavier snows, but they don't understand how snow storms work. The heaviest snowfall is generally found near where temperatures are just below the freezing point, 0°C (32°F). Warm humid air from the warm marine side of the storm rises up over the cold air that pulls down into storm along the coast. Because warmer water evaporates more vapor into the air than cooler water, warmer waters produce a warmer, wetter warm wedge of air. The warm air rises up over the dense cold wedge of Arctic air then freezes producing snow. In mid-winter the Arctic air is cold enough to produce copious amounts of snow if a storm stays offshore, pulling the wedge of Arctic air over coastal waters. The warming north Atlantic ocean has shortened the winter season in New England while is has intensified mid-winter storms. This developing blizzard may become, like Sandy, an example of the new normal in the age of climate change.
The expansion of the deep pool of warm water has caused sea surface heights to rise rapidly in the Atlantic ocean off eastern north America.
Update: 2:30pm January 27, 2015
I just found out that Joe Romm at Climate Progress wrote a post quite similar to this one called "The Climate Science Behind New England's Historic Blizzard". I did not see his post until 2pm January 27. He consulted with Dr. Kevin Trenberth, former head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Dr Trenberth, one of the world's most respected climate scientists, confirmed the main point of this diary, which is that high ocean heat content associated with human caused climate change is causing winter storms such as this one to intensify more.
I asked Dr. Trenberth to comment on the role climate change has on this latest storm, which is forecast to set records. He explained:
The number 1 cause of this is that it is winter. In winter it is cold over the continent. But it is warm over the oceans and the contrast between the cold continent and the warm Gulf Stream and surrounding waters is increasing. At present sea surface temperatures are more the 2F above normal over huge expanses (1000 miles) off the east coast and water vapor in the atmosphere is about 10% higher as a result. About half of this can be attributed to climate change.
Please note that it's fundamental atmospheric science that heavier snow will tend to fall in New England as the northern wall of the Gulf Stream and it's eddies move northwards. See Dr. Trenberth's quote above. However, atmospheric physics is not for the faint of heart. For those interested in research articles, here's a
link to a research paper that's relatively light on physics which investigated the details of the interactions between a poorly forecast snow storm that intensified rapidly along the Gulf Stream.