Looking ahead to next year's presidential contest, we are taking the pulse of the Daily Kos community every two weeks. As of now, it's clear that there are only two candidates that matter, no matter what Martin O'Malley or that fuckhead racist Jim Webb have to say about it. Here are the first two community (non-scientific) polls:
6/23 6/9
Clinton 31 24
Sanders 63 69
O'Malley 1 2
Other 0 1
No clue 1 2
Sanders obviously has the hearts and minds of the bulk of the community, with two-thirds support. Clinton has another third. And just about no one wants anyone else, or is undecided. In fact, that lack of undecideds stands out the most to me.
So we had some big movement those first two weeks, with Sanders dropping six points and Clinton gaining seven. I wouldn't read anything into that. This is not a scientific poll after all, and it's susceptible to supporters spamming the numbers. but over time we'll have a feel for where things generally stand, as well as any trends.
What I'm looking for is whether Sanders is making any inroads into Clinton support at Daily Kos. Nationwide, Clinton is still above 50 percent and enjoys strong support from non-whites and women, while Sanders is strong with younger, whiter, more educated, and more male Democrats.
If I had to guess, those fault lines are present here. And given that this community is predominantly whiter, more male, and generally younger than the party base at large, Sanders' high level of support makes perfect sense. (We're now at 79 percent white, a record low, but still much higher than the Democratic Party's 60 percent).
So, if Sanders starts making consistent inroads into Hillary's third of this community, that could signify broader gains nationally, and things might get interesting. So with all that, let's vote!
p.s. It really would be nice if supporters of whichever candidate were civil and nice to each other. I know, I know, it may be too much to ask for, but fact is, we have two extremely well-liked candidates, and the candidates themselves are holding themselves to a great standard of civility. Do them the courtesy of following suit, will you?
p.p.s. Well, unless you support that asshole Jim Webb, Confederate flag apologist and marriage bigot. Fuck him.