Released today, and details in this story.
She leads 45-39 in five-way (yes, they polled McMullin), 50-42 in 2-way.
She gets 93% of Dems, he gets 81% of Republicans.
Minor candidates draw 9% of Republicans, 1% of Dems.
NOTE — we are NOT registered by party in VA, so it is purely a self-identification.
Another thing Clinton has going for her is that 54% of Virginians would rather have another 4 years of Barack Obama as President, to only 41% who would pick Trump. Voters who are undecided in the head to head between Clinton and Trump would prefer Obama over Trump by 29 points. This is something we're consistently finding in our polling- the voters who are undecided vastly prefer continuing the direction of Obama to the sharp pivot of Trump's vision for the country. These folks don't like Hillary Clinton or they'd already be voting for her, but it seems likely for most of these folks the choice is Clinton, third party, or stay home. The least likely possibility is that they'll end up in Trump's column and that means if he's going to come back, he's probably not going to do it by winning over undecideds.
Tim Kaine’s approval rating has gone up since being named to the ticket, contrary to the normal pattern. Now 50-37, compared to 43-35 in June.
As far as reactions of Virginians to Trump’s comments on Putin:
Only 24% think Putin is a better leader than Barack Obama, who gets 55% on that question. And only 26% like Putin better than Hillary Clinton, who gets 54% on that question. But we continue to find Trump voters going along with most everything he says. 56% of them say Putin is a better leader to 10% for Obama. And 59% of them say they have a higher opinion of Putin, to only 8% who pick Clinton. Of course to put those numbers into some context, 74% of Trump voters support impeaching Clinton the day she takes office if she's elected to only 13% who support letting her actually take the office she's elected to, so in comparison Putin's numbers aren't as high.
Another disturbing note, to which Trump has clearly contributed — 68% of Trump voters think if Clinton wins it will only be because the election was rigged, and only 20% think it will because she got more votes.
On Trump’s tax returns, by 65-25 Virginia voters think he should release them.
As you dig down, an increasing percentage of Virginia voters take progressive positions —
- by 58-30 voters support McAuliffe’s notion of restoring full voting rights to felons who have completed all requirements of sentence and probatioon
- by 89-8 Virginians support complete background checks on ALL gun purchases
- by 59-33 voters support a ban on assault weapons (here I should note that in our largest mass shooting, by Cho at Virginia Tech, it was NOT an assault weapon, but a handgun)
- by 63-25 they want to expand Medicaid
- by 46-39 they support ACA
- by 68-17, in favor of hearings on nomination of Merrick Garland
UPDATE 5:24 with a just posted tweet from PPP:
A few thoughts below
Like much of America, Virginia is becoming increasingly diverse. There are, for example, a significant number of high schools in NoVa (Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Loudoun, Prince William) where the largest minority group now is Latino, but also increasing numbers of East and South Asians. Much of the population growth is in NoVa, where people tend to be better educated, and with a significant number having their employment tied directly or indirectly to the federal government.
This is a state that has already moved away from tilting Republican, and is now passing through being competitive and merely tilting Democratic. If current trends continue, it will be solidly Democratic. It is totally understandable that the Clinton campaign canceled broadcast advertising here — it is expensive and simply unnecessary.
But there is a massive ground effort, in part because there is a real chance of picking up 2-3 House seats. Currently 3 are Democratic. Because of redrawn lines, we will pick up one and have two African American House members. Two others are possible.
Virginia was probably off the table even before Kaine was picked. With Kaine on the ticket, it seems solidly Democratic for this cycle.