Unlike in midterm or presidential years, where the lead up to Election Day is a slog where every day grinds by and matters, odd year elections almost fly by. Yes, we’ve been bombarded with Virginia news and terrible takes from pundits and talking heads, but Election Day is almost here in 2017, as we are just 9 days away from Election Day. And all the Virginia coverage has overshadowed the fact that another state has relevant elections in 2017, and that state is New Jersey. Part of the reason is that unlike in Virginia, the polls haven’t been close. Also unlike Virginia, New Jersey is a blue state. But elections still matter and we shouldn’t ignore a state where intriguing things are going on. It’s also important because in 2018, there will be between 2 and 4 key House of Representatives races in New Jersey involving endangered Republicans who will be key Democratic targets towards a majority. How this election shakes out can start to teach us some lessons. So let’s take a look at the crown jewel first, the Governor race:
Governor: Phil Murphy (D) vs. Kim Guadagno (R)
Polls
Pollster |
Date |
Murphy (D) |
Guadagno (R) |
Undec. |
Margin |
Qpac |
Oct. 19-24 |
57 |
37 |
5 |
20 |
Fox news |
Oct. 14-16 |
47 |
33 |
11 |
14 |
farleigh dickinson |
Oct. 11-15 |
47 |
32 |
13 |
15 |
stockton |
Oct. 4-12 |
51 |
33 |
7 |
18 |
monmouth |
Sept. 28-Oct. 1 |
51 |
37 |
9 |
14 |
Average |
|
50.6 |
34.4 |
9 |
16.2 |
The polling average is always better than one individual poll, so this is the average of all the polls that included October. As I mentioned earlier, the polls haven’t been close. Murphy leads the polling average 50.6-34.4 and thus by a margin of 16.2. As always with polls, we look at how much each candidate is getting and how much of the vote is undecided. If a candidate is getting over 50%, that’s important, and if there’s fewer undecided votes, then the results are much much closer to being locked in. Murphy is polling over 50% in the average and the undecided vote is smaller than the margin itself, another sign that things are close to being decided. As for margins, Murphy has led by 14 or more in every poll taken since October and none of the polls I included had a margin of error of greater than ± 4.6%. In my gubernatorial ratings, I’ve rated this as Safe Democratic and it’s all but certain that Murphy will win this election and be the first Democratic governor in New Jersey since Jon Corzine.
How to know if Murphy is winning:
This will probably be a short night as the polls indicate, but in terms of New Jersey politics, the following is how we will know Murphy is winning. Looking at the most populous counties in New Jersey and compiling data from the 2012 and 2016 elections where Obama and Clinton both won with over 55% percent of the vote, these are the numbers that would indicate Murphy is winning easily:
Bergen County 54%
Middlesex County 60%
Essex County 77%
Hudson County 75%
Monmouth County 45%
If Murphy is hitting those benchmarks or at least running a couple points behind, he’s sailing to victory. Polls close at 8 pm and it would not shock me if by 8:30 or a little after, this race is called.
Other Races of Interest:
Unlike in Virginia, the state of New Jersey does not have Attorney General or Lt. Gov. elections. In the Garden State, the Lt. Gov. runs as part of the Gubernatorial ticket and then the AG and Secretary of State are appointed by the governor and confirmed by the legislature. So really, the only other thing to watch is the state legislature races. Unfortunately, there’s not a lot of intrigue here either. New Jersey has 40 legislative districts, which each elect one senator and two representatives. Democrats hold a 24-16 edge in the senate and slightly more than the perfect double of that in the General Assembly, 52-28. Neither chamber has a chance of flipping and to dull it down even more, Hillary Clinton won 28 districts in 2016. Guess how many districts Obama won in 2012? 28. This is as dull as it gets. But hey! There’s some intrigue because at least, Clinton and Obama didn’t win the same 28 districts each time, so I have a list of a few to watch that could flip from R to D:
Senate seats
District |
2012 result |
2016 result |
location |
incumbent |
Served since |
7 |
Obama +28 |
HRC +26 |
Burlington County |
Open |
--- |
8 |
Obama +7 |
HRC +2 |
Atlantic/Burlington/Camden Co. |
Dawn Addiego |
2013 |
11 |
Obama +11 |
HRC +7 |
Monmouth County |
Jennifer Beck |
2007 |
21 |
Romney +6 |
HRC +10 |
Morris/Somerset/Union Co. |
Thomas Kean |
2003 |
25 |
Romney +8 |
HRC +0.3 |
Morris/Somerset |
Anthony Bucco |
1997 |
The most obvious potential pickup is in the 7th District, an open seat where both Obama and Clinton romped by over 25 points. The others will all be tough but certainly District 8 and 11 are also clear cut opportunities for Democrats. I’d expect a pickup of a seat or two in the State Senate but nothing crazy, if only because Democrats already hold so many seats.
General Assembly seats
I won’t break them down individually, but there’s about 8 seats that could in theory be pickup opportunities. 1 in the 2nd, 2 in the 8th, 1 in the 16th, 2 in the 21st, and 2 in the 25th that will be worth watching. Like in the State Senate, I expect a flip of a couple seats but not a whole lot because Democrats again, already hold so many seats.
Conclusion: The races contained in this article will certainly not be the focus of attention on Tuesday, November 7, 2017. Instead the focus will be on Virginia, Maine’s Medicaid expansion vote, and several intriguing mayoral elections (all of which I will do posts about leading up to E. Day!). But these results are still important and do matter, so at very least, keep your eyes out for it.