As the 2018 midterm elections ever so slowly creep towards us, the race for the house is just beginning to shape up. Over the summer, I’ll take a look at each congressional district and try to handicap the 2018 results. Today, we’re going to take a look at the 17 congressional districts in Alabama, Alaska, and Arizona, which will feature some of 2018’s marquee races. Head below the fold for more
AL-01: Rep. Bradley Byrne (R) — Gulf Coast: Mobile, Daphne — R+15
Safe Republican. Though this southern Alabama district is the most evenly divided district in Alabama, Representative Bradley Byrne is the heavy favorite to win. Byrne, however, has been mulling a run for governor. Even in an open seat scenario, any Republican would be the prohibitive favorite to hold this seat.
AL-02: Rep. Martha Roby (R) — Southeast: Dothan, parts of Montgomery — R+16
Safe Republican. Martha Roby, a Republican first elected in 2010’s Republican wave, narrowly escaped defeat last year (49-41) after she said she wouldn’t vote for Trump after his Access Hollywood remarks, resulting in a Tea Party write-in candidate who sapped much of the district’s conservative vote from Roby. The DCCC targeted the district in its initial release, but even under optimal circumstances, this district would be very hard for a Democrat to win. However, Roby has gotten a Republican challenger, State Rep. Barry Moore, but Moore also has baggage. Moore has taken flak for supporting scandal-tarred former House Speaker Mike Hubbard, and he was even under investigation for lying to a grand jury looking into Hubbard’s corruption. If Moore unseats Roby, it is very likely that he would easily win the general election, but if Roby wins, another write-in movement could allow for a Democrat to win by splitting the conservative vote. For right now, however, this district is in the Safe Republican column.
AL-03: Rep. Mike Rogers (R) — East: Anniston, Auburn, parts of Montgomery — R+16
Safe Republican. Representative Mike Rogers, serving since 2002, is in no real danger of losing re-election in this district that stretches from Anniston down to Montgomery on Alabama’s border with Georgia.
AL-04: Rep. Robert Aderholt (R) — North: Gadsden, Fort Payne — R+30
Safe Republican. As the fifth-most Republican district in the nation, Representative Robert Aderholt can hold this district as long as he likes, though he was on the shortlist of candidates for Jeff Session’s Senate seat and contemplated challenging Governor Robert Bentley’s eventual pick, Luther Strange. Aderholt’s 2016 primary challenger, Phil Norris, is running again, but he poses little threat to the veteran congressman.
AL-05: Rep. Mo Brooks (R) — North: Huntsville, Florence, Decatur — R+18
Safe Republican. Though Representative Mo Brooks’ primary challenge to Senator Luther Strange throws a lot of uncertainty into this race, one thing remains clear: the next congressman from this northern Alabama district is probably going to be a Republican. The filing deadline for 2018 is after the GOP Senate primary, so Brooks could run for re-election even if he loses his challenge to Strange. If Brooks loses his primary and decides to run for re-election, he is the clear favorite to win the general election, and if he wins, there will likely be a scramble on the Republican side to replace him. Already running is ex-Morgan County (Huntsville) Commissioner Stacey George, and two Democrats, Professor Butler Caine and Photographer and Navy Veteran Michael Sweeney. However, any Republican in this district would start out as the clear favorite.
AL-06: Rep. Gary Palmer (R) — Central: Birmingham suburbs — R+26
Safe Republican. Like Aderholt, Representative Gary Palmer sits in one of the most Republican districts in the country and is in no danger of losing re-election. Democrat Danner Kline is challenging Palmer, but he’ll probably get crushed in this ruby-red district.
AL-07: Rep. Terri Sewell (D) — West: Birmingham, Black Belt, Montgomery — D+20
Safe Democratic. Terri Sewell, Alabama’s lone congressional Democrat, represents a heavily Democratic district that contains both the urban cores of Montgomery and Birmingham as well as the rural, African-American “Black Belt”. Sewell is being challenged in Team Blue’s primary by Attorney Richard Rice, but Sewell should easily advance to the general election, where she will either run unopposed or defeat whatever poor sacrificial lamb the GOP offers.
AK-AL: Rep. Don Young (R) — Entire State — R+9
Safe Republican. Last year, national Democrats were eying targeting 22-term Republican Representative Don Young but ended up avoiding the race, spending very little, and Young ended up crushing his Democratic opponent, Steve Lindback 50-36. Young has signaled that he plans on running again, and so for there haven’t been any Democrats showing interest in challenging Young. Alaska is a very politically elastic state, and Young is by no means a shoo-in, but before any serious challengers emerge, he should be breathing easily. Businessman Dimitri Shein, a liberal-leaning independent, has declared for this seat, but his path to victory seems narrow. Unless some unforeseen factors emerge, Young should be on the path to a 23rd term.
AZ-01: Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D) — Northeast: Navajo Nation, Flagstaff, Casa Grande — R+2
Lean Democratic. Tom O’Halleran, a Democrat elected to succeed Representative Ann Kirkpatrick, who unsuccessfully challenged Senator John McCain, starts out as one of the few Democratic Representatives representing a district won by Donald Trump. O’Halleran, who beat a very damaged Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu 51-44, is one of the NRCC’s targets for next year. However, O’Halleran, a former Republican with moderate bona fides, has already raised a healthy $230,000 for his re-election campaign and has shown his ability to win a tough race. O’Halleran has already drawn an A-List competitor, Republican State Senator Steve Smith who entered the race with endorsements from Tea Party US Rep. Trent Franks and Andy Biggs. Smith hails from Pinal County in the far south of the district, and much of the rural counties in the north of the district could be unfamiliar political territory to him. Compounding that problem is the fact that moderate Democrats have been very successful in this district, with Ann Kirkpatrick winning this seat comfortably in the 2014 GOP wave and only narrowly losing in the 2010 GOP wave. Also, Smith won’t be alone in Team Red’s primary, as Policeman Kevin Cavanaugh and Businessman Shawn Reed are also running. However, most of the state’s Republicans have coalesced around Smith, but looking at the national environment and O’Halleran’s 2016 success and popularity, Smith, or any Republican, will have an uphill, but not impossible, battle in this district.
AZ-02: Rep. Martha McSally (R) — Southeast: parts ofTucson, Sierra Vista — R+1
Lean Republican. Though Martha McSally, a two-term Republican, has proven her popularity and ability to win hard races, her vote for the AHCA combined with her “Let’s get this f***king thing done” battle cry has put her in serious danger for 2018. McSally, an Air Force Vet, came within 1% of beating Democrat Ron Barber in 2012, unseated Barber by 167 votes in 2014, and cruised to re-election against underfunded State Senator Matt Heinz, winning 57-43. However, McSally is attracting much more attention this cycle after Clinton won her district by 5 points. McSally signaled she wouldn’t support Trump’s first attempt to repeal Obamacare, but very enthusiastically supported the second (successful) attempt, which didn’t go over well among her constituents. A May 2017 poll conducted by PPP found that McSally sports an abysmal 40-53 approval rating, and found her trailing 2016 nominee Matt Heinz and ex-Representative Ann Kirkpatrick by an identical 48-44 margin. Already running in Team Blue’s primary are Hotel Manager Billy Kovacs, Pilot Jeff Latas, Businessman Charles Verdin, and ex-State Rep. Bruce Wheeler. This long list of people could possibly be joined by ex-State Senator Matt Heinz, Team Blue’s 2016 nominee, and ex-Representative Ann Kirkpatrick, who actually represented the northeastern 1st district but has reportedly moved to Tucson. Whatever candidate ends up winning the primary will have a tough battle ahead, as McSally has already raised $730,000 dollars, not an unusual sum for this prolific fundraiser. After the dust from the AHCA settles and the Democratic primary begins to fully take shape, we’ll get more of an idea of the race McSally is in for, but right now, she appears to be favored to win re-election. However, it would be extremely easy to attack McSally on her enthusiastic support of the AHCA, and she will no doubt have a very competitive race ahead of her.
AZ-03: Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) — South: parts of Tucson, Yuma — D+13
Safe Democratic. Raul Grijalva, who represents a district that stretches along the desert that forms Arizona’s border with Mexico, has established himself as one of the most liberal members of Congress, enthusiastically supporting Bernie Sanders in the 2016 primaries and co-chairing the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Two Republicans, Businessman Bill Abatecola and Teacher Edna San Miguel, but they don’t pose much of a threat to Grijalva, who should easily win re-election.
AZ-04: Rep. Paul Gosar (R) — West: Peoria, Prescott, Lake Havasu City — R+21
Safe Republican. As he sits in Arizona’s most Republican district, which stretches from Yuma all the way to Utah and curves around Phoenix to take in some of its exurbs, Paul Gosar is a shoo-in for re-election.
AZ-05: Rep. Andy Biggs (R) — Southeast Phoenix Suburbs: Gilbert, Chandler — R+15
Safe Republican. Freshman Representative Andy Biggs, elected in 2016 to succeed the retiring Matt Salmon, has established himself as one of the most conservative members of Congress, which plays well in this suburban district, and should easily win re-election. One Democrat, Marketing Firm Owner Joan Greene has announced her candidacy, but she will likely be crushed in this red district.
AZ-06: Rep. David Schweikert (R) — Northern Phoenix: Scottsdale, parts of Phoenix — R+9
Safe Republican. Though Trump won this well-educated district only 52-42, a huge drop from Mitt Romney’s 60-39 victory in 2012, Republicans down ballot continued to cream Team Blue, including Representative David Schweikert, who won re-election 62-38 last year. Democratic Attorney Garrick McFadden has declared his candidacy, but it will be a while before this suburban district is friendly to Democrats, even though the DCCC added this to its second batch of “reach” targets. Schweikert should easily win re-election next year.
AZ-07: Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) — Phoenix: Central City, Glendale — D+23
Safe Democratic. Ruben Gallego, a Democrat first elected in 2014, has been a leading voice against Trump and even “adopted” Martha McSally’s 2nd district by holding a town hall there. However, Democratic State Senator Catherine Miranda has been considering a primary challenge to Gallego. Miranda, who endorsed Republican Doug Ducey in the 2014 gubernatorial election, hasn’t given much reasoning into her possible challenge to Gallego, and the incumbent would have a clear edge over Miranda. Whoever wins Team Blue’s primary will almost undoubtedly win the general in this heavily Democratic district.
AZ-08: Rep. Trent Franks (R) — Northwest Phoenix Suburbs: Surprise, Sun City — R+13
Safe Republican. Another district encompassing Phoenix’s sparling suburbs and exurbs, the 8th is one of the most Republican districts in Arizona and is very unfriendly to Democrats, and 8-term Tea Partier Trent Franks should have no problem winning re-election here. Two Democrats, Counselor Judith McHale and Car Sales Manager Brianna Westbrook, have declared their candidacies, but Franks it the heavy favorite in this suburban district.
AZ-09: Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) — Eastern Phoenix: parts of Phoenix, Tempe — D+4
Safe Democratic. Kyrsten Sinema, a Blue Dog Democrat, is one of the coyest members of the Democratic caucus. In May, she stated she was running for re-election, sending Democrats into a scramble trying to find another Democrat to run against vulnerable Republican Senator Jeff Flake, but she has since made it clear that she is still leaving all options open. Sinema, however, is raising money like a Senate candidate: in the first quarter of 2017, she hauled in $580,000 and had a whopping $2,800,000 cash on hand. Arizona Democrats have been grooming the moderate Sinema for a statewide run, and if she decides to run, it would create a scramble of candidates in both parties, but until then, this seat is safe under the assumption that Sinema is running for re-election. If open, this seat would move to the Likely Democratic column. Democrat Talia Fuentes, who ran and lost as Team Blue’s 2016 nominee in AZ-05, is challenging Sinema in the primary, but she shouldn’t prove much of a threat. Team Red also has a primary emerging, with Physician Steve Ferrara, Consultant and 2016 Nominee Dave Giles, and Activist Irina von Behr. Sinema has easily held the 9th district since she was first elected in 2012, created to be highly competitive, and should have no problem holding it if she decides against a Senate run.
Thanks for reading, I hope you enjoyed it, and feel free to post comments, questions, and concerns below. Next week, I’ll take a look at Arkansas through CA-20. Have a great weekend!