Reince Priebus the people pleaser is out and John Kelly the soldier-statesman is in, to bring calm to chaos, order to disorder, discipline to the clear and obvious lack thereof. Washington is not taking this changing of the guard as just another personnel switch in a beleagured White House, already known for resignations and firings on a scale which has not been seen since the hallowed days of the Nixon administration, if even then. Insiders have been saying that Priebus was doomed to fail from the very start and with respect to Kelly the word is, “that it’s too soon to tell and anybody who says they know is a liar.” Politico Magazine:
It was a mismatch from the start. As RNC chairman, Priebus had two primary responsibilities: dialing for dollars (typically three to five hours each day) and sorting out disputes among his 168 members to keep everyone happy. Key administrative functions were mostly handled by other RNC staff, including Priebus’ own chief of staff; some associates feared that Priebus’ skill set simply would not translate to the new job. Making success all the less likely was the Wisconsinite’s disposition: laid back, naturally soft-spoken and nonconfrontational, a classic people pleaser. Priebus kept a mini-fridge stocked with Miller Lite in his RNC office and would later hold occasional Friday happy hours in his West Wing suite, inviting officials from across the building to grab a can of beer or a Solo cup of wine and commiserate about the week that had been. This calm, consensus-minded approach made Priebus a beloved party chairman, and Republicans held out hope that it would make him a good chief of staff. But it didn’t. Trump trampled Priebus from Day One, sending out press secretary Sean Spicer, a longtime Preibus ally, to deliver a demonstrably false rant about the inaugural crowd size. Trump resented the idea that his chief of staff was there to tame him, and resented even more the notion that Priebus was the conduit to a Republican Party he had conquered.
But Priebus was the conduit. By firing him, Trump has severed a critical connection to his own party—not simply to major donors and GOP congressional leaders, but to the unruly, broader constellation of conservative-affiliated organizations and individuals that Priebus had spent five years corralling. He was effortlessly tagged as an “establishment” figure—inevitably, given his title atop the party—but Priebus was a specialist at coalition-building. He convened regular meetings as RNC chairman with influential players in the conservative movement, picking their brains and taking their temperatures on various issues. That continued as chief of staff: Priebus spoke by phone with prominent activists, such as the Family Research Council’s Tony Perkins, at least once a week. There is a meeting scheduled at the White House this Wednesday of the Conservative Action Project—an umbrella group that brings together leaders from across the right—and Priebus was planning to attend. It was this kind of systematic outreach that made Priebus, whatever his flaws as a West Wing manager, an essential lieutenant for Trump.
There is no question, however, that Priebus’ absence will echo loudest on Capitol Hill—particularly in the speaker’s office. Ryan’s team had heard whispers for months of Priebus’ possible departure, but the news was nonetheless a dagger, especially on the heels of a health care defeat and at the dawn of tax-reform season. Ryan and Priebus, both Green Bay Packers fans and local beer loyalists, have been friends for decades; Ryan’s former chief of staff, Andy Speth, was Priebus’ college roommate at the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater. Priebus was the first call Ryan made when things got hairy this year, and vice versa. Working with a West Wing that contains few other true allies—and with a volatile president who has viewed him suspiciously ever since the speaker accused him of making “the textbook definition of a racist comment” about a Hispanic-American judge—Ryan saw Priebus as his staunchest ally and bunker mate. And now he’s gone.
John Kelly will either affect some miracle and create order where there is none in the Trump administration or the GOP will get just that much closer to pulling the plug. And bear in mind that Mueller’s investigation is the ever present background music against which all these decisions are made.
The Republican party still has tacit control of Donald Trump. The difference is that the people who are left are going to follow the orders of the Republican higher ups rather than attempt to gather Trump into the fold of the party and make him see the GOP way and the light, as Reince Priebus was supposed to do. Steve Bannon and Kellyanne Conway are in Trump's administration because GOP mega donors Robert and Rebekah Mercer decreed it so. Mike Pence met this summer with Robert Koch in Aspen, Colorado shortly after Pence put together his own political action committee, an unprecedented move for a sitting vice president. These three may be viewed by Trump as his advisors but they are viewed by the powers that be in the GOP as the party's operatives.
Donald Trump may have run on a platform of being virtually independent of the Republican party and his continued firing of party-placed officials from his administration may, in his own mind, solidify the image of Trump as free agent, but that is an illusion. Donald Trump can go rogue against the GOP all he wants, including his silly tweets calling out McConnell for not changing the filibuster rules and saying that the Republican senators “look like fools” and the Democrats “are laughing.” Eventually the guillotine of destiny will descend and Trump's turn as GOP figurehead will be history and the Republican party will turn the page. Increasingly, it looks like Mike Pence will play the role that was designed for him, that of fallback position when Donald Trump finally and pyrotechnically flames out.