Wall Street greed has been Trump’s true saving grace on Capitol Hill over the past 200 plus days, and it will probably soon be his downfall. All his low poll numbers, outrageous conduct, and historically bad presidential performance have not gotten Congressional Republicans off his side. His bird-flipping at and firing of “disloyal” law enforcement officials has been excused. His at best strange allegiance to Putin over traditional US allies and the US’s own electoral and diplomatic interests has been mostly ignored by Congressional Republicans outside of slow-moving committee work. His recent epoch crazy and dangerous tit for tat by tots with nukes exchanges with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un haven't done it, and short of actual war are not likely to do it either. Nor will his deteriorated relations with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
McConnell of all people is an excellent strategist on behalf of the big corporations and upper class constituencies which pay his bills and those of his associates on the Hill. He sees Trump as for now a semi-immovable object he will have to deal with, as a kind of giant talking/blaming Troll doll who somehow has come to inhabit the White House and can be privately laughed at or scorned but for now is not worth the all-out cost of destroying. The human Trump doll could fornicate in broad daylight on the White House lawn with the giant Trump-like inflatable chicken, and McConnell and most of the rest of the Congressional Republicans would excuse this as based on his lack of D.C. experience and newborn baby Christianness.
I love it when you talk Troll to me Donald.
But all bets are off if the stock market has the major correction it is likely to have. All of Trump’s above-listed failings will suddenly start to matter a whole lot then to Congressional Republicans. They will then begin to blame Trump not only for these sins, which may have stolen a few months from the stock market frenzy party, but more importantly for the inevitable sins of capitalist speculation. The system can't be blamed, but the idiotic person in temporary de jure charge of the system can be, and that will be the giant Trump Troll doll, suddenly seen in all his naked glory.
Yesterday brought two signs that the bubble may soon burst. First, a leading pro-Wall Street economist, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said as much. Although he denies that this is because of “speculation” or a “bubble” at all, he gets to the same place:
Investors have enjoyed an amazing run. Stock prices are up by nearly a third over the past 18 months and seem to be hitting new record highs daily. And the run-up has been almost a straight line, with stock price volatility—the ups and downs in prices—the lowest it has ever been.
But if you are an investor, soak all of this in, because it will soon be nothing but a memory. The stock market is due for a significant correction—defined as a greater than 10% decline in stock prices—and stock returns in the next several years will be very pedestrian if they increase at all.
(www.google.com/...)
He sort of reserves blame for a number of seemingly malleable secondary factors, including Washington "disfunction", but he begins with empirical evidence that, usually in hindsight, is as predictable as overpriced tulips in the Dutch Republic:
So why am I pessimistic? The stock market is overvalued. That is, stock prices are much too high despite the good outlook for corporate earnings. The only other time in the past half century that stock prices have been so highly priced was during the tech bubble. Yes, they’re even more overpriced now than prior to the 1987 market crash.
Second, a reason Zandi gives for contending there is no speculative bubble is itself an ironic sign of trouble: "Today’s investors are also being discerning by shunning the stocks of companies that don’t have a clear story—think Twitter or Snap.” If you start bringing back down to reality stocks that don't have “a clear story” that’s a lot of companies, particularly in tech.
Yesterday saw a continuing crash toward reality of Snapchat’s stock price:
Dancing hot dogs were not enough to save Snapchat from another Wall Street pounding on Thursday. Losses at Snapchat’s parent company have nearly quadrupled in the last three months, the company announced, sending the social media company’s shares to a new low in after hours trading.
(www.theguardian.com/...)
I cannot tell you when the crash will come, any more than Zandi can: "Of course, there is no timing a stock market correction. It could happen tomorrow, next quarter, or next year. But that time is at hand."
When it does happen, Trump’s old buddies old pals on Capitol Hill will suddenly start paying attention to all his self-amusement. Chicken-humping in public will no longer be consistent with Christian values. Enter Pence to restore virtue to the White House, push for tax cuts for the rich in a highly organized and socially-acceptable manner, and, most importantly, once again purge our memory of the latest example of the reckless wonders of a global financial marketplace that runs on voodoo, of, by, and for the voodoo princes who convince consumers with cash or credit they need silly things like Troll dolls.