Florida, one of America’s truest battlegrounds, is shaping up to be a battle royale of competitive races. Colorado has one of the Democrat’s “White Whales”, Mike Coffman, who seems impervious to failure even in the toughest years for Republicans. Head below the fold for more
CO-06: Rep. Mike Coffman (R) — Eastern Denver Suburbs: Aurora, Centennial — D+2
Tossup. A perennial Democratic target, Rep. Mike Coffman has walked a thin line in his swingy district, never seeming to fall victim to Team Blue’s attack ads. However, his well educated, suburban district has continually shifted left, and Coffman is finding more and more of his constituents hostile each year. This time around, Democrats have three declared candidates: attorney and veteran Jason Crow, attorney David Aarestad, and author Levi Tilleman. Crow seems to be the most promising, and the party seems to be coalescing around him. Crow has already raised almost $300,000, but Coffman has a 2:1 cash advantage, but with this race being a marquee of the 2018 cycle, Crow shouldn’t have too much trouble with fundraising. It’s been a challenge for Team Blue to build the secret sauce to beat Coffman, but Crow seems like a talented campaigner who could give Coffman a tough road to re-election. Though Crow seems to have the advantage in the current candidate field, State Sen. Rhoda Fields has been in talks with EMILY’s List about a run, and another well-funded opponent could upend Team Blue’s primary greatly. Hillary Clinton’s 50-41 victory and Democrat’s good recruit in Crow put this race in the toss-up column.
FL-07: Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D) — Orlando Suburbs: Union Park, Winter Park — EVEN
Lean Democratic. In one of Team Blue’s only bright spots of 2016, Stephanie Murphy unseated 12-term incumbent John Mica (who seemed to have an aversion to campaigning) in his redrawn suburban district. Clinton won the district 51-44, but Obama only won it by a handful of votes, creating an environment for a competitive race. Murphy has established herself as a moderate, joining the Blue Dog Caucus and proposing a balanced budget amendment. Republicans are targeting the district and seem to have chosen their candidate: State Sen. Mike Miller, who was endorsed by Marco Rubio. Businessmen Scott Sturgill and Mark Busch are running, and State Sen. Dave Simmons is reportedly considering a bid. Murphy has an impressive $520,000 in the bank and doesn’t appear particularly vulnerable considering the number of seats Team Red is having to defend in 2018, but given the district’s swingy nature, Murphy’s still forming campaign skills, and a solid Republican recruit, this district has the potential to become competitive.
FL-13: Rep. Charlie Crist (D) — St. Petersburg, Clearwater — D+2
Likely Democratic. Rep. Charlie Crist, the Merriam-Webster definition of “office shopper”, has seemed to have found an office (and party for that matter), and it doesn’t seem like he plans on losing it soon. He’s saved a mind-blowing $1.1 million and has found a moderate footing in his swingy district, joining the Blue Dog Caucus. He’s scared off all challengers, and only ex-Rep. David Jolly has been mentioned as a potential challenger, but Jolly’s attacks and Trump and the Republican party make him an unlikely candidate. Republicans next choice would be a $ome Dude to wear down Crist’s war chest, but no challengers have been reportedly considering, and this race could easily move off the map if no credible Republicans decide to take the plunge.
FL-18: Rep. Brian Mast (R) — Central Eastern Coast: Port St. Lucie — R+5
Likely Republican. Home to one of the most competitive races in history back in 2012, this suburban district has been shifting right since Obama scored a narrow 51-48 victory in 2008 and has ended up as a moderately Republican district, with Trump winning 53-44. Rep. Brian Mast, who won the open seat contest here after Patrick Murphy ran (and lost his race) for Senate, lost both of his legs to an IED while serving in Kandahar. Mast is a prodigious fundraiser and currently has $800,000 in the bank and will be tough for a Democrat to unseat. 2016 Senate candidate and attorney Pam Keith has filed to run for the seat and could be a credible challenger, and Palm Beach County State Attorney Dave Aronberg is considering a run. Palm Beach County makes up a significant amount of the district and having someone with high name recognition in the area like Aronberg would be a huge windfall for Team Blue. However, it would take a big wave to unseat the popular Mast, who has shown moderate tendencies, but his vote for the unpopular AHCA could be used as an effective line of attack against him. Until a tested candidate like Aronberg jumps in or Keith shows she can run a competitive campaign, this race will likely stay out of national Democrats’ sights, and Mast starts out with a major advantage.
FL-26: Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R) — South Florida: Keys, Homestead — D+6
Lean Republican. Sitting in a district that Clinton won 57-41, Rep. Carlos Curbelo should be the most endangered House Republican, but the large number of politically moderate Cubans in the district (over 37% of the 26th is Cuban) and Curbelo’s moderate record will help give him a fighting shot at re-election next year. Last year Democrats nominated scandal tarred ex-Rep. Joe Garcia, and he lost by a crushing 53-41 margin. This time around, Democrats are finding a drought of potential candidates, with 2016 State Sen. nominee Debbie Mucarsel-Powell being the only major candidate, though the pure demographics of the district will most likely result in a competitive race no matter the nominee. Muscarel-Powell is already hammering Curbelo on his vote for the AHCA, and health care will likely be a major point of contention in the race. Currently, Curbelo has a mind blowing $1.1 million saved and he has had no trouble fundraising in the past, so Team Blue is going to have a tough climb trying to overcome Curbelo’s monetary advantage. Starting the cycle out, Curbelo starts with an obvious advantage, but the wind as against Democrats’ back in 2018, and increased turnout because of competitive races for Senate and Governor could have major implications for Curbelo’s future.
FL-27: OPEN (Ros-Lehtinen) (R) — South Florida: Miami, Kendall — D+5
Lean Democratic. This heavily Cuban district, which vaulted from a possibly competitive race to Team Blue’s top pickup opportunity with the retirement of moderate Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, has been steadily pushing leftward for years and gave Clinton a massive 59-39 victory last year. Ros-Lehtinen, who has served since 1989 and become an institution in Florida politics, has consistently won this race in landslides, but her margins decreased year after year until she scored an only 55-45 victory over Democrat Scott Fuhrman, who received little party help or funding. After Ros-Lehtinen announced her retirement, a clown car of candidates on both sides declared or showed interest in running. Team Blue has many viable candidates, the most notable being ex-Federal Judge Mary Barzee Flores, State Rep. David Richardson, State Sen. Jose Javier Rodriguez, and Miami Beach City Commissioner Kristen Rosen Gonzalez. Javier Rodriguez represents much of the district in the State Senate and would probably be considered the frontrunner, but bigger names like Miami-Dade County Commissioner Daniella Levine Cava and Miami Beach City Manager Jimmy Morales are also considering and would be formidable opponents. Team Red also has many candidates, including Miami-Dade County Commissioner Bruno Barreiro and ex-Miami-Dade School Board member Raquel Regalado (daughter of Miami Mayor Manny Regalado), while noted CNN commentator Ana Navarro, Lt. Gov Carlos Lopez-Cantera, and ex-Miami Dade County Commissioner Juan Zapata are the most notable Republicans considering runs. Given Clinton’s win and Democratic enthusiasm for 2018, Team Blue starts off with the edge, but a race with this many candidates and a primary as late as August will take a while to shake out. This race could easily move to the Tossup column once the primaries have been settled, but with a win as big as Clinton’s on top of the ticket, it's hard seeing Democrats coming into November 2018 without the advantage.
Thanks for reading, and feel free to post comments, questions concerns, etc. I’ll be posting less frequently since school starts next week, but I’ll try to write as frequently as possible.