Much discussion has been made about what is the quickest path for Democrats to reclaim a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2018 Midterm elections. Some have argued for a white working class “McDonald’s” approach, while others have advocated a wealthy, educated, and suburban “Panera” approach. In actuality, the best path is to seriously challenge 80 or so districts. A combination of ones that President Obama was close in and ones that Hillary Clinton were close in in the 2012 and 2016 elections, along with a few others where regional candidates can capture a deep red seat (shoutout to Collin Peterson). Even in a wave election, Democrats cannot expect to win every toss up seat, let alone win every competitive seat. Thus, it is imperative to put a whole bunch of seats on the table, running legitimate candidates in each and ceding no ground, hoping to get lucky when the inevitable scandal or upset happens. Therefore, I have compiled a list of the 80 districts Democrats should target in 2018, so that the Daily Kos community can watch the recruitment efforts closely and focus fundraising efforts on during the 15 month run-up to Election Day.
California Seats (7)
CA-10: Jeff Denham
Both Clinton and Obama won this Modesto-area CD and in both 2012 and 2016, Denham narrowly escaped defeat, winning 53-47 in 2012 and 52-48 in 2016. The PVI of this district is now EVEN and if a Democratic wave comes in 2018, Denham would be among the first to be swept away. Blue recruitment is already heavy.
CA-21: David Valadao
This 71% Hispanic district located in the San Joaquin Valley is one of the toughest nuts to crack for Democrats at the congressional level. With a D+5 PVI, both Clinton and Obama routed their opponents here, even though Republican David Valadao continues to survive. He won by 13 points in 2016, but incumbents aren’t safe in a wave and Dems would love to beat Valadao in a blue district the way they took out Connecticut Republicans back in 2006.
CA-25: Steve Knight
Romney narrowly won CA-25 in 2012 before Hillary flipped it in 2016. In a suburban LA district with an EVEN PVI, incumbent Knight has managed to win both elections by 53-47 margins in decent to good GOP years. Like Denham, Knight would be among the first to fall in a wave.
CA-39: Ed Royce
CA-39 is almost a replica of CA-25, as both have EVEN PVI’s and both were narrow Romney wins before solid HRC victories in 2016. One of the most diverse districts in the country, Royce managed to win by 14 points in 2016, but also spent $3.5 M on the campaign. Having been in congress since the 1992 and being 67 at the time of 2018 Election Day, it would not be surprising if Royce retired rather than face a difficult reelection. He’s a tough incumbent, but also voted for AHCA. He could be in quite a bit of trouble.
CA-45: Mimi Walters
Walters serves in an Orange County district that was ancestrally red. However, after going to Romney by 12 in 2012, it went to HRC by 3 points in 2016 and is now atop the Democratic target list. Walters is a two term incumbent who hasn’t been seriously challenged either time, but there are already several Democrats lining up to take on Walters so expect that to change.
CA-48: Dana Rohrabacher
Rohrabacher holds this coastal Orange County district and has been in Congress since 1988. If we’re looking for one Rep most likely to be hit by scandal, it’s Rohrabacher, a long-time Russian sympathizer whose ties to the nation are being revealed by the day. Clinton won this district after Romney took it by double digits and Rohrabacher hasn’t been challenged recently, but with the uptick in Russia stories, a scandal might just bring him down. Even if it doesn’t, Rohrabacher could be in a lot of trouble anyway.
CA-49: Darrell Issa
If Knight and Denham are among the first to be taken by a wave, Issa would probably be the first. Romney won this coastal San Diego County district by 7 just to see it be won by Clinton by 8. At the same time, Issa barely hung on against Doug Applegate, winning by less than 1 percent. Applegate has already vowed a rematch and no matter which Dem faces Issa, even the slightest current will probably take out Congress’ richest member.
Florida Seats (6)
FL-06: Ron DeSantis
This is no doubt a stretch, with a PVI of R+7 and a district that Trump and DeSantis won by high double digits. However, Romney’s narrow 4 point win in 2012 suggest an element of vulnerability. Democrats shouldn’t expect to win this Atlantic coast seat, but should absolutely contest and a few are already filing to give it a shot.
FL-15: Dennis Ross
Another stretch, albeit not one as much as FL-06. With an R+6 PVI, this district was won by Romney by 6 and by Trump by 10. Those numbers suggest it could be competitive in a tidal wave, but not one Dems should bank on.
FL-18: Brian Mast
This Jupiter-area coastal seat is light red, with Trump taking it by 9, while Romney capturing it by 4. Brian Mast won the open seat by 11 points in 2016, as Democrat Patrick Murphy ran for senate. While it doesn’t appear that Murphy will come back to win back his old seat, the fact a Democrat represented it as recently as 2014 suggests an opening for Dems to steal a pickup.
FL-25: Mario Diaz-Balart
On the topic of retirements Democrats would love, Diaz-Balart is one, even though he is not of the typical retirement age. The Cuban holds a district Trump won by just 2, consistently winning it by 20+ points. While incumbents, even long-time/popular ones, are not safe in waves, Diaz-Balart is a tough one to beat. However, Democrats are already fielding candidates to give it a shot, as they should. Diaz-Balart did vote for AHCA and that, along with his closeness to the unpopular in SoFlo Trump, could be used against him.
FL-26: Carlos Curbelo
Curbelo is another hispanic Republican with ties to this Southern Florida, Latino-heavy district. He knocked off incumbent Joe Garcia in 2014 and then fended off a rematch with Garcia in 2016. Meanwhile, Clinton and Obama both romped in this district and it is one Dems would love to pickup. Curbelo has considerable local appeal but hasn’t won by the margins that would make him unbeatable by any stretch of the imagination, and the list of Democrats to take him on is lengthy. His flip-flop and ultimate “yes” vote on AHCA could be an easy attack on him in 2018.
FL-27: Open (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen)
It is common for older incumbents in tough districts to retire rather than face a hard re-election, especially if they can sense a wave building. And Ros-Lehtinen’s retirement back in April was the first of what will probably be several similar retirements. The longtime congresswoman is leaving open a D+5 seat that Hillary won by 20 points. There’s a long list of Democrats interested in this district and it should be the easiest pickup for Team Blue in 2018.
New York Seats (8)
NY-01: Lee Zeldin
Long Island went hard for Trump in 2016, and he won this district by 12 after Obama barely won it in 2012. Zelda won election here by 16 points in 2016 and is not super vulnerable. However, any amount of backlash against Trump in Long Island could seriously endanger Zeldin, who did vote for AHCA. A few Dems are already in the race, but Kate Browning, a Suffolk County Legislator, would be a huge recruit if Dems could reel her in to take on Zeldin.
NY-02: Peter King
This district is basically the same as Zeldin’s, a crossover Obama-Trump CD on Long Island, albeit one that went to Obama by a solid 4 points in 2012. King has held down this seat since 1993, and hasn’t really been challenged much over the years. While Dems should try and oust King, their biggest opening is if King retires, which, at 74 years old in 2018, could easily happen.
NY-11: Dan Donovan
This R+3 district is almost wholly located on Staten Island and is another Obama-Trump CD. Donovan, the former District Attorney, won the seat in a 2015 special election, and won re-election easily in 2016 despite taking only 56% of the vote (a sizable 3rd “blank” vote). This is a stretch district for sure, but one that could be within reach depending on how strong of a Democratic year 2018 is.
NY-19: John Faso
Like so many seats in New York, Faso’s 19th CD is also an Obama-Trump district going to Dems by 6 in 2012 but to GOP by 9 in 2016. Faso was slaughtered in the 2006 New York gubernatorial race by Elliot Spitzer but rebounded to win this open seat last fall by 10 points. However, his new status and swing district location makes him a top target for Democrats, and most have this race chalked up as a Toss Up.
NY-21: Elise Stefanik
This ancestrally Republican and rural district on the Vermont border is held by the 33 year old Stefanik, one of the youngest congresspeople. While Obama won this seat by 4 points in 2012, Trump took it by 14 in 2016 and Stefanik has won by large margins each time. This is a stretch district due to the strength of Stefanik’s candidacy, but is potentially vulnerable due to Obama’s success here.
NY-22: Claudia Tenney
This is a district that Romney narrowly won in 2012, before Trump romped Clinton in 2016. However, Tenney won this open seat in 2016 running way behind Trump and only winning by 5.4%, with a large third party vote against a rather unknown Democrat. Meanwhile, in 2018, Democrats have already landed State Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi as a top tier challenger to take on Tenney, immediately making this a vulnerable seat for the GOP.
NY-23: Tom Reed
This is an R+6 CD that both Romney and Trump won, which in theory makes it a tough get. However, Romney’s small margin of victory (1 point) makes it a legitimate target for Democrats. Reed won election in 2012 by just 4 points but has comfortably won his last two re-elections. This will be a hard win for Dems, but is one they should give a run at for sure.
NY-24: John Katko
This is an upstate D+3 district that both Hillary and Obama won and thus should be a top target for Democrats. The trick part is defeating two term incumbent John Katko who has won both elections rather easily. However, Democratic leadership is courting Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner, who would be a top tier challenger. Syracuse is by far the largest city in NY-24 and her name recognition would be a major boon, so all eyes will be on the recruitment efforts here.
New Jersey Seats (4)
NJ-02: Frank LoBiondo
If we are talking about incumbent GOPers that Dems most want to retire (who legitimately might), LoBiondo is on the top of that list. LoBiondo has held this southern New Jersey seat since the Republican Revolution of 1994 and has immense popularity in-district. Meanwhile, Obama won the seat by 8, though Trump took it by 5. Thus, its PVI is R+1. If LoBiondo remains in place, this will be very hard to win. If he retires, open the floodgates because Dems have a legit shot. Reasons he might? He’ll be 72 in 2018, has been there awhile, and might not want to try and withstand a wave.
NJ-03: Tom MacArthur
MacArthur is in another Obama-Trump swing district, though he has won each of his first two elections by comfortable margins. However, MacArthur’s claim to be “moderate” went awry, when it was his amendment that allowed the AHCA to pass the house. Any backlash against that could result in major problems for him in 2018 and predictably, many Democrats are lining up to take on MacArthur.
NJ-07: Leonard Lance
New Jersey’s 7th is a suburban district that swung against Trump, giving Hillary a win and resulting in a relatively narrow Lance win. Lance did vote against AHCA but in the process encountered a lot of angry people at town halls. At the age of 66 in 2018, Lance is a potential retirement watch candidate, but even if he doesn’t, his seat could be up for grabs in this narrow R+3 district.
NJ-11: Rodney Frelinghuysen
The Frelinghuysen dynasty is as old as America itself and Rodney has held this identical R+3 northern New Jersey seat since the 90s. Romney won the district by 6 in 2012, but Trump narrowly eked out a victory in 2016. Frelinghuysen did vote yes on AHCA and at age 72 in 2018, a retirement is certainly possible from this longtime rep. Like with Lance, even without a retirement, this is a legitimate pickup opportunity.
Pennsylvania Seats (5)
PA-06: Ryan Costello
This suburban (and gerrymandered) Philly district has been one of the most competitive in recent presidential elections. Romney won it by 2.5, while Hillary captured it by 0.6. Costello is a second term rep. who won re-election in 2016 running far ahead of Trump, albeit not against the greatest of opponents. The R+2 nature and the competitiveness make it a top target for Dems.
PA-07: Pat Meehan
The Pennsylvania 7th is very similar to the 6th, also Romney-Clinton with very narrow victories for each. Meehan has served here since winning an open seat in 2010, most recently defeating a La Salle PolySci professor by comfortable margins in 2014 and 2016. Dems will need a better candidate in 2018, and already have state senator Daylin Leach, though we can argue how top tier of a recruit that is. Regardless, this is a district that should be very competitive should Democrats make a run at a house majority.
PA-08: Brian Fitzpatrick
The 8th CD is also like #7 and #6, with a R+1 swingy PVI, though it was won by Trump and Romney, though both by less than 1% of the vote. Brian Fitzpatrick was elected here in 2016, succeeding brother Mike. He is a very moderate centrist who opposed both the Muslim Ban and AHCA and thus, could be tough to beat. However, waves don’t take pity even on those who oppose an unpopular president (see: Lincoln Chafee, 2006) and Fitzpatrick could easily be toppled in 2018.
PA-15: Charlie Dent
Dent is in a redder R+4 district that Trump and Romney both won by single digits but one where he has managed to make a name for himself, serving since 2004 and winning by comfortable margins. Dent is a moderate, similar to Fitzpatrick and also voted no on AHCA. That said, the wave potential still exists, along with the possibility of retirement from Dent, which would instantly make this seat a top pickup opportunity.
PA-16: Lloyd Smucker
One of congress’ best names belong to a newbie from Pennsylvania’s 16th, the reddest of these five competitive districts, at R+5. That said, it was only Trump and Romney by mid single digits, and Smucker won his term last fall by a modest 11 points. Smucker defeated Christina Hartman who is back for a 2018 rematch, along with a bunch of other candidates. This seat is a stretch but could easily become a pickup in a wave.
Texas Seats (4)
NOTICE: This part is a little tough to write about, given the ongoing Texas redistricting case. This NYT Piece by Nate Cohn is a great summary of everything you need to know about how these districts could be redrawn to aid Democrats either by a small amount, or as the armageddon scenario notes, a huge amount. I will update this when the decision is handed down. For now, I see the below four districts as being ones Dems should target:
TX-07: John Culberson
This suburban Houston district swung dramatically from a 20 point Romney win to a 1 point Clinton win, and in many ways, it resembles Georgia’s 6th (more on that later). Culberson however, doesn’t have a very strong incumbent’s advantage when compared to Tom Price, winning the district by just 12 points in 2016 (as opposed to Price’s 23 point win). This is the type of seat that is in play, but is not really a top target. And of course, there’s the whole redistricting thing going on, affecting whether candidates will jump in or not.
TX-23: Will Hurd
This CD is that massive district that stretches along the southern border all the way up to the city limits of El Paso. It’s Texas’ most swingy district and was held by Democrat Pete Gallego from 2013-2015. Hurd has defeated Gallego twice, by tiny margins each time. Romney won it by 3 in 2012, but HRC won it by 3 in 2016. Gallego is thinking about trying again, but is mostly waiting and seeing whether this district gets altered due to redistricting. There’s a strong possibility that it gets redrawn to become a very strong Democratic district, so it’s wait and see.
TX-24: Kenny Marchant
This district is similar to Georgia’s 7th (read about that in a bit). A strong Romney district that swung towards HRC in 2016, but not all the way (Trump took it by 6). With a R+9 PVI, it’s a tough district to flip, but it’s worth the shot. Marchant is a difficult incumbent, but when you’re going for a majority, you have to swing for the fences.
TX-32: Pete Sessions
Maybe the most egregious 2016 district of all, Hillary captured this R+5 PVI district by 3 points, but Democrats failed to even run a candidate against Sessions. That is set to change in 2018, and it’s hard to tell how this district will change if it does. If it stays in its current form, it will be a district Dems will go after and will have a shot, albeit not a great one, at winning. If the court redraws some unfavorable GOP lines, it could go from orange to light blue. If the armageddon scenario happens however, then it would go from orange to dark red (in exchange for a few dark red districts becoming dark blue). Only time will tell.
Southwest Seats (5)
AZ-02: Martha McSally
This southern Arizona border district was held by Democrat Ron Barber after a narrow 2012 victory over current Rep. McSally. She rematched him in 2014 and won by 161 votes and then won a 13 point reelection over Matt Heinz in 2016. Heinz is back for a rematch in 2018, while progressive and Bernie endorsed Mary Matiella and former AZ-01 Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick are also in the hunt for the nomination. Whoever gets the nod will have a very good chance of taking out McSally in this pink R+1 district, making it a clear battleground.
CO-03: Scott Tipton
Tipton’s western Colorado district is very similar to what it was under the 2000 census map, when Democrat John Salazar (older brother to ex-Sen. Ken Salazar) represented it from 2005-2011. Tipton beat Salazar in the 2010 wave and has held it since. It’s a R+6 district, but also one that could fall to Dems in a wave scenario. While Trump won it by 12, Romney took it by 6, and McCain took the earlier iteration by just 3. It’s a stretch, but a good environment combined with a strong candidate could do the trick for Team Blue.
CO-06: Mike Coffman
If a blue wave comes, along with Issa’s CA-49, this suburban Denver district will be among the first to fall to the Democrats. Clinton won it by 9 in 2016, building off of Obama’s 5 point win in 2012. Coffman, a well-known state politician has managed to hang on to it, winning by 2 in 2012, 9 in 2014, and 8 in 2016. However, those close margins, and the blue-leaning nature of the district make it a top target for Democrats and a tossup according to all House analysts.
NM-02: Open (Steve Pearce)
This district was not expected to be competitive until Rep. Steve Pearce announced he was vacating the seat to run for governor. This district has remained the same since 2001, and the last time Pearce vacated it, to run for senate in 2008, a Democrat won the seat. However, after the failed senate run, Pearce returned and knocked off the Democrat in the 2010 wave to get his old seat back. With Pearce vacating it again, Democrats will have a shot at a pickup. It is R+6, and was won by Romney by 7 and Trump by 10, so it will be an uphill battle. That said, if Democrats draft the right challenger, they will have a good chance at stealing this seat.
UT-04: Mia Love
This district includes parts of Salt Lake City and then small sections to the south. Being Utah, it’s rather surprising that this district is even competitive, and its R+13 rating suggests that it shouldn’t be. However, Mia Love has been a relatively weak candidate in this district, winning it by less than 4 when it was open in a very strong GOP year in 2014, and then defended it by winning a rematch in 2016 by 12 points. Utah is a very anti-Trump state and gave 21% of its vote in 2016 to Evan McMullin. If a centrist Democrat can run in this seat and tie Love to Trump while channeling the McMullin and liberal votes, Love is beatable. A stretch, but beatable.
Rust Belt Seats (19)
IA-01: Rod Blum
Iowa was, along with Ohio, maybe the most fascinating state in 2016. After going hard for Obama in 2008 and 2012, the state swung violently towards Trump in 2016. Democrats are looking to regain authority in Iowa and a pair of swingy congressional districts will give Team Blue a chance to measure themselves in 2018. First up is IA-01, the bluer of the two. Obama won this CD by a staggering 13 points in 2012 before Trump captured it by 4 in 2016. However, given that Obama won the whole state by 7 in 2012 and Trump won it by 9.5 in 2016, IA-01’s PVI, remains D+1. Blum took the seat in 2014 by just 2 points when it was open and then defended it by 7 in 2016. However, those small margins suggest this is a good pickup opportunity and a handful of Democrats are in the race to dethrone Blum. His yes on AHCA vote could prove costly. Regardless, this is an important race to watch.
IA-03: David Young
This district is redder than the first, but is still winnable. Obama took it by 4, as did Trump, making its PVI R+1, so a second very swingy district. David Young has won this district by decent margins for his two terms, so he’s a tad safer than Blum, but this is the type of district that Democrats need to do well in to win a majority. A few candidates are already jumping in the race and Young also voted yes on AHCA, which can be used against him. This should be on the top of Democrats’ targets list.
IL-06: Peter Roskam
This suburban Chicago district was gerrymandered by Democrats to be a GOP stronghold. Instead, it swung from a solid Romney win to a clear Hillary win, shifting the PVI to just R+2 and making Peter Roskam vulnerable. He’s served in the house for over a decade, but that doesn’t stop Democrats from serious challenging him. A handful of Dem candidates are jumping in the race to unseat Roskam and this is a classic “Panera” district. Wealthier, more educated, and exactly the type that Democrats will look to win in 2018.
IL-12: Mike Bost
This southwest Illinois district along the Missouri border was one of the GOP pickups during their strong 2014 year. Bost held re-election in 2016 when he was not seriously challenged. It’s a district that went narrowly to Obama in 2012 and then swung hard to Trump in 2016, as many districts along the Upper Mississippi did. Democrats are ready to legitimately contest this district in 2018. It’s not an easy pickup, but a clear opportunity nonetheless. If Democratic gains in 2018 resemble Obama’s 2012 map as opposed to Hillary’s 2016 map, then this is the type of district that would fall into Democratic hands early in the night.
IL-13: Rodney Davis
Davis’ district is just above Bost’s district, though it encompasses much of central Illinois. It has a similar dynamic as the 12th, with Obama winning it by a small margin, except Trump only won it by 6. Davis cruised to a 20 point reelection in 2016, but his narrow victory in 2012, combined with Obama’s win there, suggests an element of vulnerability. David Gill, who narrowly lost to Davis in 2012, is running for a rematch in 2018, along with a few other Dem candidates. This is not a top target for Dems, but one of the types they need a few of if they want to take the house.
IL-14: Randy Hultgren
Hultgren holds a suburban Panera district that shrunk from a 10 point Romney win to a 4 point Trump win. Hultgren has represented the area since 2011 and won a comfortable re-election in 2016. Of the four Illinois districts, this is no doubt the biggest stretch. It’s the type of seat that would be a tossup in a Democratic wave, but probably not in just a strong Democratic year. A good candidate could swing it, but don’t bank on it.
IN-09: Trey Hollingsworth
Senator Todd Young’s old seat, Hollingsworth carpetbagged it on his way to victory last fall by 14 points. This is only notable because it is a vast underperformance compared to Trump who took it by 27. Hollingsworth is not the world’s best candidate and while the carpetbagging charges won’t hold as much power as they did last fall, it’s still something to use against him. A couple of candidates are running, including a video game aficionado. This is the definition of a long shot, but to get a majority, you have to shoot for the stars.
MI-06: Fred Upton
At R+4, this in theory is a classic swing district. Romney won it by just one point and Trump by 8. The problem barring it from being swingy? The incumbent, Fred Upton. Upton has held down this district since the 80s and has built quite the incumbent’s advantage. He will be a tough out. But the glimmer of hope? Either a) Upton could run for senate, b) Upton could retire, being 65 in 2018, or c) Upton could suffer extreme blowback from AHCA, where it was his amendment that powered its passage in the house. A longshot, but the nature of the district suggests Democrats should put it on the target list.
MI-07: Tim Walberg
This is no doubt a stretch district, with an R+7 PVI and a very Trumpy one, won by DJT by 17 points. However, Romney’s meager 3 point win in 2012 is the main reason this district could be competitive. Walberg has held this district since 2007, with the exception of 2009-2011 where he was defeated by Mark Schauer in the 2008 Blue Wave. This district has changed slightly to be more red since then, but it’s still similar and as seen by Romney’s 3 point 2012 win, it could fall in a tidal wave. Walberg beat Gretchen Driskell by 15 last fall, a margin of victory that was smaller than Trump, and Driskell is back for a rematch. At 67 years old in 2018, Walberg is a potential retirement candidate and that would probably be the most likely way that this district would be picked up.
MI-08: Mike Bishop
This district, and the next one after it, are two that Team Blue has not been able to crack down ballot. With an R+4 PVI, it’s exactly the type of district that Dems need to try and flip in 2018. It’s an odd district covering the college town of East Lansing, more rural areas, and then the outermost Detroit suburbs. That said, Trump and Romney won it by mid-single digits, 7 and 3 points, respectively. Yet, Bishop took it in the fall by 17. National security expert Elissa Slotkin is running to try and beat Bishop in 2018 and it will be an uphill climb, but one that is doable.
MI-11: Dave Trott
Very similar story here. An R+4 district won by Trump and Romney both by 5 points, while Trott won it by 13. This CD is slightly more vulnerable than MI-08 and it is much more suburban as well. A classic Panera district, it is wealthier and more educated but also has shown a tendency to be within striking distance for Dems. Quite a few candidates are already in the race and Trott does have some past skeletons in his closet to target. Another tricky but possible district.
MN-02: Jason Lewis
One of the swingiest districts of all, this suburban Twin Cities district went to Obama by 0.1 before going to Trump by 2. It was an open seat last fall and following Trump’s footsteps, talk radio host with lots of baggage Jason Lewis won it by a tiny 2 points. His 2016 opponent, Angie Craig, is back for a rematch and it seems like she will get the nomination. Any amount of a blue current will probably sink Lewis and thus this should be atop Team Blue’s target list.
MN-03: Erik Paulsen
One of the few GOP/D+ PVI districts, this D+1 PVI seat was an Obama +1 district in 2012, before swinging to Hillary by 10. Predictably, it’s also a suburban Twin Cities district and a lot of ticket splitting was going on in 2016, when Paulsen won by 13 despite Hillary’s margin in the district. Thus, Paulsen’s going to be a tough out but one thing is clear about this district: it really doesn’t like Donald Trump. And Paulsen has done little to distinguish himself, voting against the measure to release Trump’s tax returns and voting for AHCA. A number of candidates are taking on Paulsen and he is another top target.
OH-01: Steve Chabot
Ohio has seen the living daylights gerrymandered out of it, leaving Democrats at a big disadvantage. However, a strong resurgence in the state in 2018, like Obama’s margins in 2012 or more could yield some seats, starting with Ohio’s 1st. In an attempt to not have to give Cincy it’s own blue district, the GOP siphoned off the votes into badly gerrymandered districts like this. It’s an R+5 seat but Trump and Romney both only won it by 6. Chabot cruised to an 18 point win and he will be tough to defeat. However, Chabot is another potential retirement name and even if he doesn’t this is a long shot, but still a legitimate possibility.
OH-10: Mike Turner
This is another “probably only competitive if Turner retires” district. Romney won it by just 2 and Trump by only 7. Its R+4 PVI suggests that it should be in play, but Turner’s 33 point margin suggests that it shouldn’t. Thus, this is more of a Hail Mary than anything else, a hope that the GOP will give Dems a hand by Turner retiring.
OH-14: David Joyce
Part III in our series of Ohio “probably only competitive if the incumbent retires” seats, is OH-14. Joyce won by a hardy 26 points last fall and Trump took it by 12. The only thing keeping it on the board? The Romney +3 margin in 2012. Dems probably need a a retirement or a scandal of some sort to give them the boost to win here.
OH-16: Open (Jim Renacci)
The reddest district of the four, this one is only on the board because of a retirement. Renacci is running for governor and leaving this R+8 district open. Romney took it by 8 and Trump by 17. It’s another Hail Mary, but in American elections, weird things happen, so it’s anyone’s guess. Maybe a Dem will pull a Collin Peterson and somehow win in enemy territory.
WI-07: Sean Duffy
These next two Wisconsin districts are both long shots, ones that Trump won by huge margins while Romney won them by tiny margins. In Wisconsin’s 7th, Romney took the district by 3 and after 2012, the PVI was just R+2. However, Trump’s 20 point win has bloated the PVI to R+8. Where does it actually lay? It’s hard to tell, but if Democrats’ 2018 appeal resembles Obama’s blue collar coalition, this is the type of district that could become competitive. Duffy will be a very tough out but it’s worth a try.
WI-08: Mike Gallagher
This is a very similar story to WI-07. After Romney took it by 3, its PVI was just R+2. After an 18 point Trump win, the PVI is now R+7. Gallagher won this as an open seat last year easily, riding the coattails of the president against a subpar opponent. His new status in this district makes him someone worth targeting, as does Obama’s strong performance here in 2012. Again, a long shot, but if you’re making a list of 80 districts to target, you have to have some desperate heaves.
Great Plains Seats (5)
KS-02: Open (Lynn Jenkins)
This is an R+10 seat that Romney and Trump both carried by double digits and one that incumbent Lynn Jenkins took by 28. Why is it competitive then? Mostly because Jenkins is vacating it, but more importantly because of who Democrats might land to run: Paul Davis. Back in April, Davis announced he was exploring a bid for congress in this seat. Davis is best known as the 2014 Democratic nominee for governor, who lost to Sam Brownback by a narrow margin. Why is he a good recruit here? Because he actually won this district in that gubernatorial election despite losing statewide, meaning he has regional appeal. And with an open seat, if Davis runs, Dems would have a serious shot to steal this dark red seat.
KS-03: Kevin Yoder
This suburban Kansas City seat is the most vulnerable in the state with a narrow R+4 PVI. Romney won it by 5 points in 2012, followed by a Hillary win in 2016 by 1 point. Kevin Yoder has held the seat since he won it in 2010, but hasn’t racked up a huge incumbent advantage, winning it by 10 in 2016. A bunch of Democrats are ready to challenge for this seat so get ready for what should be a hard fought and close battle.
KS-04: Ron Estes
The first congressional special election held in 2017 also got the least attention and became almost the most surprising upset. Kansas’ second reddest district, with an R+15 PVI, should never have been close. Romney and Trump both won it by over 25 points and when Mike Pompeo vacated it to become CIA Director, no one expected it to be competitive. That’s when progressive veteran James Thompson stepped in and lost to Estes in the special election by just 7 points. Thompson is vowing a rematch and while it will still be an uphill climb, the narrow margin of victory (smaller than Yoder’s 2016 win, for instance) ensures that this race ends up on this list of competitive seats.
NE-02: Don Bacon
This suburban Omaha district is Nebraska’s only competitive congressional district and was won by Obama in 2008. It was altered slightly in the redistricting period following 2010 and assigned an R+4 PVI. Romney took it by 7 in 2012, but a narrow 2 point Trump win makes it competitive. That, along with the fact that a Democrat won it in 2014 despite the good GOP year: Brad Ashford. Ashford defeated 8 term incumbent Lee Terry by a narrow margin but then was defeated by Don Bacon last fall by just over one point in one of the closest house races. Ashford is back for a rematch and the consensus is that this is a toss up race, and one that could fall to Team Blue in even the slightest wave scenario.
MT-AL: Greg Gianforte
One of the more prominent special elections this spring took place in Montana, where billionaire Greg Gianforte edged folk singer Rob Quist by 6 points, a narrow margin given the state’s R+11 lean. Both candidates were plagued with baggage, with Gianforte seen as an out of touch carpetbagger who body slammed a reporter, and Quist dealing with a host of unpaid debts and tax problems. Gianforte received a narrow majority (50.19%) and thus beating him is doable if Dems can land a good challenger without baggage issues, who can consolidate the plains progressive streak in the state with the always sizable Libertarian vote. Will that happen? I don’t know, but it’s possible so this race makes the list.
Border State Seats (7)
KY-06: Andy Barr
Kentucky’s only competitive seat is a Panera district covering the Lexington area. It’s an R+9 PVI CD that Romney and Trump both carried by double digits. Democrats didn’t even seriously contest Barr last fall. So in theory, it’s puzzling why it’s being targeted. But it’s a good thing that it is, as State Senator Reggie Thomas and Retired Air Force Veteran Amy McGrath are already in the race. McGrath’s first ad had a kick-ass veteran feel that reminded me of Jason Kander and she could be a darn good candidate. Mayor of Lexington and 2016 Senate candidate Jim Gray is also thinking of jumping in, and like Paul Davis in KS-02, Gray carried this seat during his statewide run and his name recognition as mayor of the CD’s largest city could be huge. Whoever the nominee is, at the very least, it looks like Team Blue will have someone legit.
VA-02: Scott Taylor
For two straight presidential elections, the Virginia Beach VA-02 has been the country’s median district, giving it an R+3 PVI. Yet, despite that fact, Democrats didn’t even seriously challenge it when it was an open seat last fall. Scott Taylor breezed to victory even though Trump won it by just three points. However, in 2018, Democrats are actually making a run at it, having drafted a few candidates already, and this pink district is the type they need to win a handful of to win a majority.
VA-05: Tom Garrett
Trump won this seat by 11 points and Romney took it by 8. It’s the type of district that would probably only be competitive in a wave scenario, but for what it’s worth, Democrats have landed a few people here, including Marine Veteran Roger Huffstetler and Filmmaker Leslie Cockburn. It’s a tough district to flip, but is worth a shot.
VA-07: Dave Brat
Yes, this is Eric Cantor’s old seat, one that no one thought could be competitive. Yet, the narrow Trump win (6 points) in this district suggests that a wave could oust the Tea Party incumbent. Brat won by a comfortable 15 points last fall but will face tougher competition in 2018. A stretch, but worth a try for sure.
VA-10: Barbara Comstock
If you remember Darrell Issa and Mike Coffman from earlier on the list of most vulnerable incumbents, Comstock should also make the list. Holding a suburban DC district that swung from Romney +1 to Clinton +10, Comstock looks to be in a lot of trouble. A clown car Dem primary has already developed out of a sheer eagerness to take on Comstock and whoever the nominee for Team Blue is, they should be ready to flip this seat.
WV-02: Alex Mooney
No state has swung farther right than West Virginia, and thus, it’s surprising to see any seats on this list, let alone two. However, two factors are contributing to this, the first of which is weak incumbents. Mooney is in an astounding R+17 seat, yet won by just 16 points last fall and only 3 points during his initial win in 2014. Battered with carpetbagging accusations, Mooney is no one’s definition of a strong candidate, even in a dark red seat. Homeboy Democrats can still do well in West Virginia (see: Earl Ray Tomblin, Jim Justice (RIP), and Joe Manchin) and Dems will need to find one here. A few are already in the hunt but if they can find a strong homeboy centrist who is soft on coal, they might just have a shot.
WV-03: Open (Evan Jenkins)
The other factor working to put this R+23 seat on the list is vacancy. If Jenkins were still here, there was no chance this CD would be competitive. However, Jenkins is vacating WV-03 to attempt the uphill climb that is defeating Senator Joe Manchin. Thus, Democrats do have a small chance to steal an ultra-red seat, but again, they have to find a Homeboy Democrat to do it. And they may just have that candidate, in Huntington Mayor Steve Williams. Finding the mayor of the CD’s largest city is always a good strategy to steal a seat and Williams might just be the guy. It’s a stretch, but sometimes you need to get lucky.
Southern Seats (6)
GA-06: Karen Handel
No special election got more coverage than Georgia’s 6th, where Karen Handel narrowly defeated Jon Ossoff by 4 points. The seat was unlike most Panera districts, in that Obama got slaughtered before a narrow 2016 (most were at least close in 2012). Thus, Democratic expectations were high. For what it’s worth, Handel was a much more established politician, and it seemed that late movement gave her the last minute win. Regardless, Ossoff should run again (he hasn’t said that he will), hoping that a lower profile race and a little luck could push him over the top. This race should be close again in 2018, but with much less attention.
GA-07: Rob Woodall
Georgia’s 7th is a more conservative version of the 6th, as it includes more rural area, but still enough suburban area to make it close in 2018 after a 6 point Trump win in 2016. This is the type of seat that would be competitive only in a wave election. It’s a stretch, but a good candidate could be enough to topple Woodall, even though he won by 21 in 2016 (though it was against measly competition). For what it’s worth, a handful of candidates are in the race to take on Woodall and we’ll see how it goes. It’s not a top target, but one that’s worth a fight nonetheless.
NC-02: George Holding
North Carolina’s GOP has gerrymandered the living daylights out of the state, but hasn’t done it quite well enough to ensure ultra-safe districts. Therefore, this seat, and the next two are both pretty much wave-only long shots. This seat is an R+7 PVI that Trump won by 10, Romney by 13, and Holding by 13. A strong candidate could breakthrough, but would need a lot of help from the national environment.
NC-09: Robert Pittenger
This seat is similar to Holding’s in nature, that it is R+8, and one that Trump, Romney, and Pittenger have won by low double digits. It’s a suburban Charlotte seat that profiles a lot like most Panera districts, but again, it would take a VERY strong national environment and/or a retirement from Pittenger (who will be 70 in 2018) to flip this seat.
NC-13: Ted Budd
This is the bluest of the three, at just R+6 and a Romney 7 point win in 2012 suggests some element of vulnerability. This seat was gerrymandered to include parts of Greensboro but not all, along with a bunch of rural area. Again, same story here: strong national environment is needed to convert this longshot.
SC-05: Ralph Norman
This special election was vastly overshadowed by Georgia’s 6th, as they took place on the same night, yet their PVI’s were almost identical (R+8 to R+9) and Obama actually did better in this district in 2012 than in GA-06. The low turnout special almost resulted in an absolute stunner, where no-name nerdy Goldman Sachs banker Archie Parnell fell three points short of knocking off State Senator Ralph Norman. That close margin suggests that Democrats could have a shot here in 2018. Not likely, but hey, let’s give it the old college try.
Northern Corner Seats (4)
AK-AL
These last three seats are grouped together because I have nowhere else to put them and hey, they’re the northern corners of the US. In Alaska, Don Young has held down the at-large congressional district since the beginning of time. However, due to his age (85 in 2018), he might be the most likely retirement candidate on this list. Alaska is a rather odd state, with an R+9 PVI, but with a few factors working for it, most notably a strong libertarian streak. It elected a centrist independent governor who combined his campaign with the Democratic ticket in 2014, elected a Democrat to the US Senate in 2008 (and came very close to reelecting him in 2014, despite a good GOP year), and has consistently elected moderate Republican Lisa Murkowski. Despite having been around forever, Young’s incumbency advantage isn’t that tremendous, and he only beat Forest Dunbar by 10 points during the strong GOP year of 2014. If Young is to retire, perhaps Dunbar runs again and has a legitimate shot at flipping this seat.
ME-02: Bruce Poliquin
In Maine we have the swingy 2nd congressional district that Obama took home in 2012, only to watch it fall to Republican Bruce Poliquin at the congressional level in 2014, followed by Trump’s 10 point win in 2016. In many ways, it resembles many of the blue collar areas that Trump won in 2016, and if Iowa’s seats are falling to Dems in 2018, then this one probably will too. Democrats have yet to draft an ultra high level challenger for Poliquin, but he’s definitely vulnerable, and would probably be a goner in a wave scenario, due to Obama’s solid 9 point win here and the R+2 nature of the district. As always in Maine, it rests on consolidating the third party vote with the Democratic vote.
WA-03: Jaime Herrera-Beutler
This seat is a tough nut for Democrats to crack. It’s been consistent at the presidential level, with a 2 point Romney win and a 7 point Trump win. But Herrera-Beutler has developed a strong incumbent’s advantage, cruising to a 24 point win in 2016. If she were, for some unforeseen reason, to retire, this would be a huge pickup opportunity, but for the moment, it’s a long shot. One Dems could win at the Presidential level, but probably not at the congressional level. It’s worth a try though.
WA-08: Dave Reichert
On the list of retirements that would benefit Democrats most, right next to Frank LoBiondo is Dave Reichert. Even though Obama won here by 1.6 and Hillary by 3, Reichert continues to rack up victories, winning by 20 in 2016. The EVEN PVI suggests that this should be close, but Democrats have never found the magic strategy to topple Reichert. He will be 68 in 2018 and has served since 2005, thus making him a clear retirement candidate, but it might take that in order for this seat to flip.
Conclusion
Whew. That was a lot. 80 Seats are a lot to write about, but again, I compiled this list so that we can focus our efforts on those certain districts: recruiting, fundraising, canvassing. Some are obviously more likely to turn blue than others, but it’s a combination of different terrain, candidates, and appeal that will be the perfect mix if Democrats are to win a majority in 2018. As for the time in between, I’ve made this spreadsheet, tracking the recruiting efforts and candidates with other essential information. Feel free to check it out if you want. Otherwise, please leave a comment if you have one, either about this piece, which dark horse districts you’re interested in, or whatever. Thanks!