What the what? On behalf of UtahPolicy.com, local pollster Dan Jones & Associates is out with a survey of a few hypothetical general election matchups, and they find GOP Sen. Orrin Hatch trailing Democrat Jenny Wilson, a member of the Salt Lake County Council, by a solid 45-34 margin. This same sample finds Mitt Romney clobbering Wilson 64-26, a very plausible result in this very red state. They also test Wilson against Rep. Chris Stewart, who leads her 34-30, and Utah Valley University President Matt Holland, who trails her 30-23; undecided takes a plurality in both races.
So, what’s up with those Hatch numbers? The seven-term senator sounds likely to run for an eighth term, and while past polls have shown that voters would like him to just hang it up, it seems tough believe that, without a scandal, enough people are so disgusted with him that they're ready to replace him with a Democrat. Team Blue hasn't even come close to winning a statewide race in Utah in a very, very, very long time: Team Blue's recent high-water mark was in 2004, when Democrat Scott Matheson lost the governor's race to Republican Jon Huntsman "just" 58-41. The last Democrat to actually win a statewide race was Jan Graham, who was re-elected attorney general 52-46 in 1996.
We'd love it if Hatch were unpopular enough to put Utah's Senate seat in play next year. But even if this poll is on target and Hatch really is in trouble, it's just so tough to see him losing, even in a Democratic wave year. It doesn't help that Hatch, unpopular as he may be, will have all the resources he needs to portray his Democratic foe as unacceptably liberal. Still, Wilson is at least a cut above the little-known candidates who usually run here, so she may be able to capitalize if everything goes right and then some.
So will Hatch run again? Who knows. We feel like we're trapped in a Groundhog Day cycle where every few months, someone reports that Romney is planning to run for this seat if Hatch retires, while Hatch maintains that he's planning to run again but has not fully made up his mind. Dave Hansen, a longtime Hatch adviser, told UtahPolicy last month that he expects the senator to decide in October, while unnamed sources tell them now that he may drag this out until December. So strap in for a few more months of "Mitt Romney wants to run for the Senate!" stories. We'd prefer to deal with Ned Ryerson.