This is really a perfect quote:
“Coastal Republicans were already having a tough time dealing with constituents who were pissed off about the tax bill,” former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Political Director Ian Russell told TPM. “It’s like they’re handpicking issues they’re not winning on. It’s bizarre.”
Democrats need to win 24 seats to take control of the House. Given its current gerrymandered status and recent Republican electoral success, there are few endangered Democrats to worry about. Democrats will be mostly focused on offense.
Twelve Republican House members, all from either California, New York, or New Jersey, voted against the tax bill. They know they are f’d. So are their colleagues from those states who voted for a tax bill that utterly screws their constituents. Democrats are heavily targeting seven California Republican-held House seats, and pretty much all but one of the 14 Republican-held seats in New York and New Jersey. That’s 20 of the seats Democrats need.
Those California Republicans are now under even greater pressure after that idiot Trump decided to open up coastal waters to further off-shore drilling, wildly unpopular … pretty much everywhere. So much so, that now FLORIDA Republicans (like Trump acolyte Gov. Rick Scott!) are up in arms. Democrats are already targeting two Clinton-won districts in the state. Trump has delivered ammunition to expand that map.
Then there’s the Trump regime’s perplexing decision to go after legalized marijuana, giving low-performance young voters another excuse to engage electorally. Pot is legal, in some capacity, in Alaska, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada, Oregon, and the District of Columbia.
Oh look, there’s California again. It’s almost as if the Trump regime has a direct vendetta against the state! And the incoming Democratic administration in New Jersey has already promised to work toward legalization, further putting pressure on its Republican delegation.
But aside from that, Republicans are defending a swingy seat in Colorado, and the state’s Republican senator, Cory Gardner, has come out hard swinging against the decision. Unfortunately, he won’t be up for re-election until 2022, but he knows how hard the issue hits Republicans in his state.
Democrats have a bead on the swingy Maine 2nd congressional district, as well as a competitive Senate race in Nevada. And maybe the state’s lone Republican in the House delegation could be seriously challenged.
If Democrats are smart, they will finally nationalize the pot issue, and its impact could spread through the entire map. The more young voters turn out, the bigger the Democratic landslide will be. And a great step toward making that happen would be full-throated Democratic support for full legalization at the federal level. Heck, leave it up to the states to decide for themselves! But the feds need to get out of the business of banning marijuana. And as far as political calculations go, there is little downside to Democrats. The public supports recreational legalization by 2-1 margins, and medicinal legalization by 9-1 margins or even higher.
Ironically, perhaps, these are all issues driving voters into Democratic arms. Trump’s antics and Russia and Steve Bannon are all generating headlines and driving the media narrative. And there’s no doubt that Trump’s overall awfulness is driving much of the energy in the Resistance. But in the end, public opinion is being shaped in large part by the substantive part of GOP governance—the issues.
And Republicans seem hell-bent on giving Democrats every reason to activate their voters, from the god-awful tax bill, to repeated (and still not dead) efforts to take people’s health care away, to standing on the wrong side of history on justice issues, to trying to stop the benign (and medically useful!) use of marijuana, to sticking off-shore rigs where absolutely no one wants them.
If this is the GOP’s swan song, perhaps all that makes sense. The more of their agenda they can cram through in the next several years, the harder it will be for Democrats to govern, cleaning up the mess, dealing with massive budget holes, and undoing political and policy landmines all across the executive branch. And heck, doing their corporate masters’ bidding can prove lucrative in their post-government careers when K Street comes calling.
But looking toward 2018 and even 2020? Trump is literally doing everything possible to give Democrats a leg up. It’s bizarre! And damaging in the short term. But if it lays the seeds for a massive reshaping of our nation’s politics well into the next decade? Then that would be taking these bitter lemons and making one hell of a glass of lemonade.