So far, the news out has been fantastic. For early and mail-in ballots, Day 1 had HIGHER than 2016 numbers across the 15 highest population counties in Texas.
How do things look for Day 2?
COUnty |
Day 2 2014 |
Day 2 2016 |
23 Oct 18 |
|
Cumulative 14 |
Cumulative 16 |
cumulative 18 |
Early and Mail-In Voting results - top 15 counties
harris |
21612 |
76376 |
66315 |
|
83347 |
205390 |
181916 |
dallas |
14781 |
53934 |
55259 |
|
43998 |
134235 |
136982 |
tarrant |
16033 |
45182 |
45931 |
|
45424 |
110338 |
107360 |
bexar |
15437 |
40025 |
38009 |
|
41815 |
92737 |
83179 |
travis |
10022 |
38352 |
35757 |
|
27116 |
84438 |
83162 |
collin |
8024 |
31552 |
31765 |
|
18336 |
68241 |
74276 |
denton |
6083 |
20561 |
21048 |
|
15665 |
42555 |
45743 |
el paso |
3593 |
16715 |
16153 |
|
8050 |
36173 |
39602 |
fort bend |
5228 |
19001 |
18512 |
|
15768 |
41386 |
45644 |
hidalgo |
5690 |
16036 |
13646 |
|
15622 |
39494 |
33298 |
montgomery |
4528 |
12781 |
12017 |
|
13066 |
33213 |
32175 |
williamson |
4843 |
16792 |
20794 |
|
12750 |
41006 |
44290 |
galveston |
3358 |
10346 |
9869 |
|
9243 |
26201 |
25705 |
brazoria |
|
|
9368 |
|
N/A |
|
24388 |
cameron |
2365 |
6555 |
6807 |
|
6168 |
14956 |
16030 |
TOTAL |
121600 |
404208 |
401250 |
|
356368 |
970363 |
973,750 |
The table is a bit of a mess — I’ll work to clean it up for tomorrow. The first set of three numbers shows how the top 15 counties compare to 2014...and 2016. The second three columns show total numbers of votes — cumulative. Any suggestions would be appreciated! Brazoria is new on the ‘top 15 counties’, driving Nueces off...I can only guess this is due to the major voting registration drives.
YES, voters are turning out. Depending on the county, we’ve got between 7 and 13 percent of all registered voters having ALREADY VOTED as of yesterday in these counties.
So, what does this mean?
It’s hard to say — other than it's absolutely astonishing that in TX, I'm having to compare these counties' 2018 numbers against 2016, a presidential year. Texas isn’t red, it’s non-voting. Well, this mid-term, people are coming OUT. Is this good or bad? Well, it’s decidedly not bad. The only way Beto can win Senate — or Lupe Valdez win Gov — is to have unlikely and non-voters show up. We’re certainly seeing that any polling done expecting a midterm electorate might as well get tossed on the fire now, because it’s not capturing the electorate we’re seeing.
In 2016 we saw record-breaking early voting...but then the in-person voting on election day slumped some. We still saw Sec. Clinton cut the Republican lead in half, from 16 points to 9. Given that usual turnout for midterms in TX is closer to 30% than the nearly 60% in 2016 (registered voters), higher turnout is almost certainly good for Team Blue. Another thing to note is that this is the last election where we have straight-party voting. That means the hordes of new voters or unlikely voters can check a single box and vote for the entire Democratic slate.