The latest news today out of Pennsylvania courtesy of Monmouth University’s latest poll:
Republican Rick Saccone has a small advantage in the special election for Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, even when the potential for a Democratic surge is taken into account. However, the Monmouth University Poll finds that a partisan gap in enthusiasm around President Donald Trump has helped Democrat Conor Lamb stay within striking distance.
Saccone holds a 49% to 46% edge over Democrat Conor Lamb in the race to fill the open House seat on March 13, using a turnout model similar to voting patterns seen in other special elections over the past year. Another 1% opt for a third party candidate and 4% are undecided. A historical turnout model, based on lower turnout than the 2014 midterm, gives Saccone a larger 50% to 45% lead. A model with higher turnout overall, similar to a presidential electorate, gives Saccone a 48% to 44% advantage. It is worth noting that all of these leads are within the poll’s margin of error for each model.
“Saccone has a slight edge, but it’s nowhere near the double digit advantage Republicans typically enjoy in this district. The potential for a Democratic surge like we have seen in other special elections helps Lamb stay in the hunt but it does not close the gap entirely,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. Monmouth used a similar multi-model approach in polling December’s special election for U.S. Senate in Alabama. That poll found a much wider 7 point swing between the low and high turnout models for that race.
The key difference between Monmouth’s Democratic “surge” model and the standard low turnout model in PA18 is an increase in the districtwide vote share coming from historically Democratic-leaning and competitive precincts. Most of these precincts are located in Allegheny County with some in neighboring Washington County. These precincts typically make up about 19% of PA18’s electorate in any given election. The surge adjustment increases that share to 23%.
Democratic voters are generally more engaged in this race than are Republicans. Among likely voters, 48% of Democrats compared with 26% of Republicans say they are following the PA18 special election closely. Among all potential voters interviewed for the poll – including those unlikely to vote in this contest – Democrats (65%) are more likely than Republicans (50%) to say they have a lot of interest in this race. If all potential voters were likely to cast a ballot next month, Saccone would hold an even larger lead of 48% to 41% over Lamb in the current poll.
“The fact that Saccone does better among all potential voters than he does in any of the probable turnout models is a clear sign of higher enthusiasm among Democrats. However, this district’s strong Republican bent may simply be too high a hurdle for Lamb to overcome,” said Murray.
While 51% of likely voters approve of Trump in this district, they still remain deeply divided on his handling on the issues. Lamb’s greatest strengths come from Allegheny County and from voters who are age 65 and up. Hence why Lamb has made Social Security and Medicare key issues:
The poll also found that neither Trump’s endorsement or Nancy Pelosi is persuading voters one way or another despite Trump hitting the campaign trail for Saccone. Either way, this poll shows us we still have a great shot here and we have to keep up the momentum. Click here to donate and get involved with lamb’s campaign.