Here’s your sign:
What happens to a president who hosts a rally for a candidate in an obscure special election but then watches that candidate lose anyway?
President Donald Trump’s political advisers don’t really want to find out. Which is why less than two weeks away from the March 13 election to fill a traditionally Republican congressional seat in western Pennsylvania, his team has yet to finalize an appearance by him.
A March 10 rally with Rick Saccone, the GOP candidate for the House District 18 seat, is still only “tentative” for Trump, according to multiple sources. One Republican consultant close to Trump’s political operation said the tightening of the race in recent weeks has sparked worries of the damage to Trump should Saccone lose despite a presidential visit.
“They’ll wave off if the numbers don’t get better,” the consultant said on the condition of anonymity.
A mid-February Gravis poll gave Saccone a 6-percentage point lead over Democrat Conor Lamb ― just half the size of what the Republican enjoyed the previous month. A Monmouth University poll, also from mid-February, showed Saccone with a 3-point lead, within the poll’s error margin of plus-or-minus 5.5 points.
Makes sense because every GOP attack against Conor Lamb (D. PA-18) isn’t working:
First, Republicans in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District accused Democrat Conor Lamb of supporting Nancy Pelosi for speaker of the House.
Next, they talked up the tax cuts that the GOP had passed through Congress in December.
Most recently, the GOP turned, perhaps desperately, to a different audience — Democrats, some of whom in Allegheny County began receiving cheeky direct mail thanking Lamb for protecting “our Second Amendment rights.”
The race in the 18th District, which was drawn to safely reelect a Republican congressman until he resigned last year, has closed to single digits despite an onslaught of Republican spending. On the air and in mailboxes, it has previewed many of the attacks Republicans may use this year to protect their control of the House of Representatives.
But in public polls, while Lamb was being outspent by as much as a 17-to-1 margin, Republican Rick Saccone lost much of his lead. With President Trump expected make a pre-election campaign stop on March 10 — his second visit to the district — the Pennsylvania race has found Republicans nervously changing up both positive messaging and attack lines, with little of it appearing to stick.
CNN has five reasons why Lamb can pull of this race but this one really sticks out:
3. Trump's relative lack of popularity
Yes, Trump won by 20 points in Pennsylvania 18, but look at the Monmouth poll. His approval rating in the district is just 51% to a 47% disapproval rating. If voters were casting a ballot solely on how they felt about Trump, a tight race would be expected.
The 16-point drop in Trump's net approval rating (approval rating - disapproval rating) in the district versus his margin in 2016 in the district fits with what we're seeing nationally. In the latest
CNN poll for example, Trump's net approval rating with voters is -17 points. That is 15 points below his -2 point margin (i.e. loss in the popular vote) in the 2016 election.
All Lamb needs to take him over the line is a slight turnout advantage or for a few voters who like Trump casting their ballot for Lamb. Lamb is more popular than Saccone in the Monmouth poll, so this alone could put him over the top.
So yeah, Trump may not be enough to save the GOP’s lackluster candidate. Lamb, on the other hand, is going to be getting a big name on the campaign:
Former Vice President Joe Biden is visiting the region on March 6 in an effort to support Democrat Conor Lamb, one week before a special election in the 18th Congressional District.
Mr. Biden will appear at two events: a rally with union members at a training center for carpenters, followed by a 6 p.m. event at Robert Morris University’s Yorktown Hall.
“Conor Lamb will be a champion for the working people of southwestern Pennsylvania,” Mr. Biden said in a statement. “He’s not afraid to say the word 'union.' I know he will stand up for the people of his district, whether it means protecting Social Security and Medicare, or fighting to create good, quality jobs you can support a family on.”
A visit from Mr. Biden, who has said Mr. Lamb has “a genuine chance of winning” the March 13 against Republican Rick Saccone, has been anticipated for weeks. He was last in Pittsburgh in mid-February as part of a book tour. And while he didn’t address the race specifically, he did urge Democrats to reconnect with voters on economic issues.
Mr. Biden is popular with unions — he was introduced by United Steelworkers President Leo Gerard at his book tour stop — and speaks forcefully on both social and economic issues. That arguably makes him well suited to help Mr. Lamb in the 18th District, which pairs more liberal suburbs with comparatively conservative areas where unions still play a political role.
Let’s seal the deal and win this damn race. Click here to donate and get involved with Lamb’s campaign.