Race Ratings: Daily Kos Elections is changing our ratings on two races, both in favor of Democrats.
• ME-02: (Lean R to Tossup): This northern Maine district is one of the most heavily white working-class seats in the country, and as a result, it flipped from Obama to Trump in 2016. However, special elections in demographically similar areas have seen voters snap back toward Democrats thanks to Trump’s unpopularity. The Democratic nominee, state Rep. Jared Golden, is a former Marine combat veteran with a profile well-suited to his district. Both national parties have reserved considerable TV ad time here, and Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin failed to release any data contradicting a recent poll for Golden that found the race dead even.
• WV-03: (Likely R to Lean R): It seems improbable that a seat that backed Trump by a 73-23 margin could ever be in play for Democrats, but this district in the former heart of coal country is a very unusual one. Though heavily white working-class, a long history of unionization made this seat a Democratic stronghold downballot for decades. Even as voters here have moved sharply to the right in presidential races in recent years, they voted Democratic in every single House and Senate election from 1930 until 2014 and still backed multiple Democrats at the state level in 2016,
Democratic state Sen. Richard Ojeda, who in 2016 won a seat in the legislature that's even Trumpier than the congressional district he’s now seeking, has proven to be a pitch-perfect candidate, with a blue-collar appeal that stands in contrast to the usual caricatures of D.C. Democrats. The lone poll we've seen here had Ojeda narrowly ahead, and Republicans never countered it. GOP state Del. Carol Miller is still favored given this district's long-term lurch to the right. But with Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin poised to carry this district no matter how his re-election goes, an upset by Ojeda doesn't appear to be such a distant possibility anymore.