The water was too serene this past May.
And then the pundits pounced, citing congressional ballots that indicated that Republicans, despite their failure to enact any kind of meaningful legislation except for taxes and an unholy allegiance to Trump, were neck and neck with the democrats. There was talk that the democratic control of the house was unlikely, and that Republicans could even extend their advantage in the Senate.
Fast foward three months, and we are now on the cusp on entering the fall. Look toward the horizon. Do you see it? A monster wave comprised of smart, qualified, and diverse candidates and voters is forming. With each day that passes, the wave grows larger and crash harder as special elections in Republican districts don’t go according to plan. The Cook Political Report keeps on moving more seats from lean republican to toss-up and toss-up to advantage democrat. I know that nothing is assured until the votes are finally tabulated, but a epic cleansing of the upper and lower chambers is looking inevitable. Per Jennifer Rubin at the Washington Post:
According to the Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman:
For Republicans, the 2018 House playing field is a lot like a game of Whack-a-Mole: everywhere they turn, new problems keep popping up in surprising places. In January, we rated 20 GOP-held seats as Toss Ups or worse, including three leaning towards Democrats. With today’s changes, we now rate 37 GOP-held seats as Toss Ups or worse, including ten leaning towards Democrats.
Republicans are relieved that state Sen. Troy Balderson appears to have eked out a win in Ohio’s 12th CD special election last week. But a new round of polls shows several more GOP incumbents, including Reps. Mimi Walters (CA-45) and Tom MacArthur (NJ-03) highly vulnerable. Their seats, along with Rep. Robert Pittenger’s open NC-09, move from Lean Republican to the Toss Up column.
In addition to those 37 Republican-held seats that are now Toss-Up or worse for the GOP, there are 25 Republican seats that are only “Lean Republican.” That’s a total of 62 seats that Republicans have a decent chance of losing. It can lose only about a third to keep the House majority.
Contrast that to the Democrats, who have a grand total of four seats rated Toss-Up or worse. Democrats can pick one or two to pour money into — or let them go by the wayside as they nudge more Republican seats in their direction.
Of course we have to keep pushing forward. We have to keep on being persistent, vigilant, and optimistic inspite of everything disasterous that takes place. And not just for the next 84 days or so. After we win in 2018, we need to continue to apply the pressure all the way through 2020, and then cleanse the rest of Washington of the corruption that plagues it. We must really drain the swamp.
Vive la resistance!