RFE/RL reported today that President Trump said the India–Pakistan conflict in Kashmir is a “very dangerous situation” and that his administration “would like to see it stop.” Trump went on:
India is looking at something very strong. India just lost almost 50 people with an attack. So I can understand that also.
By seeming to side with India — at least in part — Trump is treading on extremely dangerous ground. As I mentioned in my Monday diary “World’s touchiest nuclear flashpoint inflamed by terrorist attacks; escalation likely”, recent terrorist attacks in Kashmir, including the big suicide bombing eight days ago that Trump alludes to, have made it likely that India will respond by attacking inside Pakistan, and this could all too easily escalate in turn to a nuclear conflict.
Michael Kugelman writes in Foreign Policy that this crisis was predictable, and is partly driven by the wind-down of the war in Afghanistan, which is allowing state-supported Pakistani terrorist groups to turn their attention to Kashmir. Kugelman writes:
… if tensions start spiraling out of control, … [the Trump administration] should offer itself up as a mediator — as previous U.S. administrations, including that of Bill Clinton during the 1999 Kargil conflict, did fairly successfully. But whether an often maladroit Trump administration has anyone who can manage that kind of diplomatic footwork is a tough question.
Kugelman has quite a gift for understatement. Trump is so distrusted by both India and Pakistan that any attempt by them to use Trump as a mediator would be a terrible sign, a sign of sheer desperation on both sides.
India’s military reaction to the terrorist attack in Kashmir is so widely anticipated that Pakistan has already promised to retaliate in turn.
Quite possibly Trump ignored briefings on this issue until today — which is why he’s talking about it today — and quite possibly Trump’s laser-like focus on watching TV and evading the Mueller investigation will cause him to continue to neglect the India–Pakistan conflict unless and until bombs actually start falling. And then we will all be in very big trouble.