The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● NC-09: North Carolina is finally set to hold a special election for the 9th Congressional District after the 2018 results were invalidated due to election fraud conducted to benefit Republican Mark Harris, and the field has started to take shape on the GOP side. Harris' campaign manager told WSOC TV's Joe Bruno that his boss would assess his health situation before deciding whether to run again. However, it's simply unfathomable that Republicans would be eager to see Harris as their standard-bearer after his implosion on the stand.
Campaign Action
Intraparty hostility may be the least of Harris' problems. Indeed, the Wake County District Attorney Lorrin Freeman said she was anticipating prosecuting at least some of the people involved, most likely political operative McCrae Dowless, who orchestrated the absentee ballot fraud scheme to aid Harris. However, when asked how Harris himself related to her investigation, Freeman said she was looking into "who might have been funding that and what did they know?" If Dowless faces criminal charges, he might be willing to reveal more to prosecutors about Harris' involvement than Harris has publicly let on, possibly further implicating the candidate himself in the election fraud scheme.
Other Republicans are likely to run regardless of what happens with Harris, and names are already beginning to surface. Former Mecklenburg County Commissioner Matthew Ridenhour, who narrowly lost re-election to his historically Republican South Charlotte district last fall, told Bruno that he is giving serious consideration to running.
Meanwhile, WRAL's Travis Fain also reports that state Sen. Danny Britt, whose seat covers Robeson County in the eastern part of the 9th District, is "considering it strongly." Jim Morrill of the Charlotte Observer tweeted that former state Sen. Tommy Tucker is also considering a campaign. Finally, WSOC's Bruno relays that former state Rep. Andy Dulin wouldn't rule it out but said he isn't seriously considering a run at this time.
Two of the biggest names who could possibly run for the GOP are former Gov. Pat McCrory and former Rep. Robert Pittenger, whom Harris narrowly defeated in the 2018 primary. Both men had previously said they wouldn't run, but each declined to comment when Bruno enquired if their positions had changed since state board had called for a new election.
On the Democratic side, 2018 nominee Dan McCready is already off to a running start. McCready says his team will decide over the next several days whether to challenge a law Republicans passed in the 2018 lame duck session to require a new primary in redo elections. If McCready does choose to contest that new law and prevails, Republicans would undoubtedly be in deep trouble with the scandal-tarred Harris as their nominee in a repeat election.
Senate
● IA-Sen: While former Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack previously hadn't ruled out a bid against Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, Vilsack aide Matt Paul told the Des Moines Register on Friday that his boss will not run for the Senate in 2020. No Democrats have yet announced, but a large number of names are in the mix.
● KS-Sen: One possible tell as to whether Kansas Republicans actually buy Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's not entirely believable claim that he's "ruled out" a Senate run is if other would-be candidates start taking steps toward bids of their own—and we're now seeing some tentative signs that they may be.
A spokesman for GOP Rep. Roger Marshall, who'd previously expressed interest in seeking a promotion, made it clear that Marshall is still thinking about it but said he's "in no rush to make a definitive decision." However, this aide hinted at a possible timetable, saying that "the first test for any potential candidate will be the level of support they receive on April's report"—a reference to first-quarter campaign finance reports that are due at the FEC by April 15.
That deadline may not prove as important as Marshall thinks, though, since there's only one declared Republican candidate right now, state Treasurer Jake LaTurner. If that state of affairs doesn't change between now and the end of the quarter, they'll be the only two filing reports with the FEC. Both Marshall and LaTurner have also reportedly met with the NRSC, but those meetings took place weeks before Pompeo's recent announcement.
And there's still plenty of skepticism about the secretary of state's intentions. Pompeo still casts a wide shadow over the race, and given his outsize profile, he can afford to wait as long as he likes. As one local Republican lobbyist put it, "I don't think anyone will really be convinced until the filing deadline passes." Count us in on that score as well.
Gubernatorial
● VA-Gov: Republican lawmakers in Virginia say they'll invite Vanessa Tyson and Meredith Watson, the two women who have accused Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax of sexual assault, to testify before the legislature, a move that many legislative Democrats are resisting despite the fact that the House and Senate Democratic caucuses have called on Fairfax to resign.
At the same time, Democrats have also rejected a proposal by Republican House Speaker Kirk Cox to create a bipartisan committee to investigate the allegations, with House Minority Leader Eileen Filler-Corn claiming such a panel would risk becoming "a political, partisan show." Some Democrats, such as Del. Lashrecse Aird, insist that any such investigation should be carried out by law enforcement agencies, but Watson has publicly said she does not want to go that route, while Tyson reportedly does not plan to press charges.
House
● IA-04: White supremacist GOP Rep. Steve King isn't deterred by his close call in 2018 and his growing list of Republican primary challengers, and the longtime congressman declared in an interview on Thursday that he would run for a tenth term in 2020. National Republicans may be disappointed that King won't make things easier for them and quit, but it's possible that he'll lose renomination to one of his primary challengers, a group that includes state Sen. Randy Feenstra, Woodbury County Supervisor Jeremy Taylor, and Army veteran Bret Richards. If no one breaks 35 percent, a party convention would choose the nominee for this heavily Republican district.
● NJ-05: Unnamed "Republican insiders" are talking up wealthy businessman Tim Luing as a possible challenger to sophomore Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer, according to the New Jersey Globe, but they all call the idea "speculative," and Luing hasn't responded to requests for comment. Luing is a major GOP donor and his family runs the for-profit Berkeley College, which has eight campuses across New Jersey. The sources touting him say he could self-fund, an idea they like because Gottheimer is one of the strongest fundraisers in the House.
No Republicans have entered the race as yet. One other potential candidate, Assemblywoman Holly Schepisi, hasn't ruled out a bid but sounds unlikely.
● NJ-11: Morris County Sheriff James Gannon, whom the New Jersey Globe describes as "one of the most formidable potential challengers" to freshman Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill, says he's "not interested" in a House bid. Republicans have yet to land a candidate to take on Sherrill, who flipped New Jersey's 11th District by a dominant 57-42 margin last year.
Mayoral
● Chicago, IL Mayor: Democratic Rep. Robin Kelly, who represents a district on the South Side of Chicago, has endorsed former Chicago Police Board President Lori Lightfoot ahead of Tuesday's first round in the crowded mayoral election.