Given that I just analyzed the Iowa House, I thought it made sense to analyze the Iowa Senate next. The current balance in the chamber is 32R – 18D, meaning Democrats need to net gain at least eight seats for outright majority control of the chamber, and seven seats to tie, which would presumably result in a power sharing agreement. The Iowa Senate is structured with senators having staggered four year terms, with half of the seats being up for reelection every two years. (Even numbered seats are up for reelection in 2020.) Each senate district is geographically made up of two house districts. (The two house districts contained in each senate district represent different geographic areas; they are not coterminous with each other.)
Note that in 2018, the Democrats actually had a net loss of state senate seats, despite making net gains in the state house, mainly because they faced an unfavorable senate map. By contrast, the 2020 map is much more favorable for Democrats, with Democrats defending only six of the seats up. These seats were last contested in 2016, which was a bad year for Democrats in the Iowa Senate. They lost control of the chamber and had a net loss of six seats.
As was the case with the Iowa House, in my analysis I use the margins of the 2018 Governor’s race and the 2018 State Auditor’s race in terms of the Democratic candidates. Democrat Fred Hubbell lost the Governor’s race by just under 3 points and Democrat Rob Sand won the State Auditor’s race by a margin of between 4 and 5 points, defeating the Republican incumbent.
As usual, in the chart below, seats classified as “Safe” for the incumbent party are excluded. Democrat held seats are underlined and Republican held seats are in bold. In general, I assume that the incumbents are running. In my analysis, Obama always refers to his 2012 performance.
LIKELY D |
LEAN D |
TOSS UP |
LEAN R |
LIKELY R |
30 — Giddens |
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8 — Dawson |
32 — Johnson |
24 — Behn |
34 — Mathis |
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20 — Zaun |
46 — Lofgren |
28 — Breitbach |
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22 — Schneider |
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38 — Kapucian |
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36 — Edler |
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48 — Zumbach |
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42 — Taylor |
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44 — Greene |
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Likely D
This category contains two Democrat held senate districts (SDs), which should be fairly safe, but are worth mentioning.
SD 30 – Democrat Eric Giddens won this seat by just under 15 percentage points in a special election held a few months ago. I’m mentioning this district as it is relatively competitive on the presidential level with Barack Obama carrying it by between 7 and 8 percentage points, and Hillary Clinton carrying it by between 3 and 4 points. In addition, special elections aren’t always indicative of the general election. Hubbell did about a percentage point better than Obama here, and Sand easily carried the district by a little more than 16 points. Democrats occupy both of the house districts contained here, having narrowly flipped one of them in 2018.
SD 34 – Democrat Liz Mathis was easily reelected here in 2016 by about 12 percentage points. However, this district warrants mention because it is fairly competitive at the presidential level, with Obama carrying it by about 5 points and Clinton carrying it by a little less than 3 points. In 2018, Hubbell did a little bit better than Obama here, while Sand easily carried the district by over 13 points. While Republicans occupied both of the two corresponding house seats prior to 2018, the Democrats flipped one of the house seats in 2018, and came close in the other. It may also be worth pointing out that Mathis has been mentioned as a possible Democratic candidate for the Iowa U.S. Senate Race (against Joni Ernst.) If Mathis ends up running for the U.S. Senate (and therefore not for reelection), this district may end up being more competitive (although still probably favored somewhat for the Democrats.)
Lean D
There are no districts in this category.
Toss Up
This category consists of one Democrat held seat and five Republican held seats.
I’ll start with the one Democrat held seat first. (SD 42)
SD 42 – Democrat Rich Taylor represents the only truly vulnerable Democrat held seat. Taylor was very narrowly reelected in 2016 (by a margin of less than 200 votes over his Republican opponent). In addition to (or possibly the cause of) Taylor’s very close call in 2016, this district has also swung very heavily to the right at the presidential level, with Donald Trump easily carrying the district by a little more than 23 points, in contrast to four years earlier, when Obama carried the district by a little less than 7 points. (This is the only Democrat held seat up in 2020 that Trump carried.) It also should be noted that this is the only Democrat held senate seat (up in 2020) that either Hubbell or Sand lost, as they both lost this district by between 5 and 7 percentage points, though this is still quite an improvement over Clinton’s performance.
As for the five Republican held toss up seats.
Included in this category are the only three Republican held seats up that Hubbell carried in 2018. (Sand carried these three as well.) The fact that Hubbell carried them makes them especially good pick up opportunities for Democrats, given that Republicans currently occupy only one state house seat that he carried. We’ll start by talking about these three seats first. Also note that the first two districts mentioned (SD 20 and SD 22) are the only Republican held districts (up in 2020) that Clinton carried. It may also be interesting to point out that the three other Republican held toss ups, as well all of the “Lean R” and “Likely R” seats, are Obama-Trump districts.
SD 20 – Republican Brad Zaun was easily reelected here in 2016 by about a 19 point margin. However, this district has been trending blue at the presidential/statewide level, going from voting for Mitt Romney by a little less than 7 points, to narrowly voting for Clinton by less than 200 votes. Both Hubbell and Sand improved on Clinton’s margin, with Hubbell carrying it by almost 4 points, and Sand carrying it by a little less than 9 points. Furthermore, Democrats occupy both of the corresponding house districts, having flipped one of the house districts (HD 39) in 2018. One Democrat is already running for this seat: Rhonda Martin, a landscape artist and Johnston City Council member, who was also one of the dedicated volunteers who helped flip HD 39 in 2018.
SD 22 – Republican Charles Schneider was reelected here by a little less than 12 points in 2016. As with the case of SD 20, this district has been heavily trending towards the Democrats. This is another Romney-Clinton district, with Romney doing about the same (a tiny bit worse) than in SD 20, and Clinton doing a few points better. (She carried this district by a little more than 3 points.) Hubbell did quite well here, as he carried the district by a little more than 8 points, easily his best performance in any of the Republican senate districts. Sand carried the district by a little more than 10 points, also his best performance in any Republican held senate district. In 2018, Democrats also flipped both of the house seats contained in this district, further indicating the district’s blue trend.
SD 44 – Unlike the two districts mentioned above, this district trended heavily towards the Republicans in 2016, with Republican Thomas Greene defeating (then) incumbent Democrat Thomas Courtney by about a 5 point margin. This district went from voting for Obama by 15 points to voting for Trump by a little more than 10 points. However, the 2018 midterms show some movement back towards the Democrats, with Hubbell narrowly carrying the district by just under 2 percentage points and Sand fairly easily carrying it (by around the same margin as in SD 20 and SD 22). Democrats and Republicans each occupy one of the two house districts that comprise this senate district (HD 87 and HD 88) respectively. It may be also be worthwhile to point out that while the Republican in HD 88 was still fairly easily reelected, his margin of victory shrunk by about half, in comparison to 2016, when he wasn’t an incumbent.
The two other Republican held districts included as toss-ups are SD 8 and SD 36. As with the case of SD 44, both of these districts flipped to Republican control in 2016 with the (then) incumbent Democrats being defeated.
SD 8 – Republican Dan Dawson defeated Democrat Michael Gronstal by around 8 points in 2016. Indeed, this district swung somewhat to the right in 2016, as both Obama and Trump carried this district by around 10 points. As with SD 44, this district made some movement back towards the Democrats in 2018, as Hubbell very narrowly lost the district by just a percentage point. Interestingly, Sand actually did a little bit worse than Hubbell here, losing the district by about 3 points. (Sand outperformed Hubbell virtually everywhere else.) There is already a Democrat running in this district for 2020: Steve Gorman, who in 2018 almost defeated the Republican incumbent in HD 16 (one of the two house districts located in this senate district), in a closer than expected race. This is good news for Democrats, given that HD 16 is the redder of the two house districts. (Democrats occupy the other house district contained in SD 8.) Therefore, Gorman should (at least have the potential) to win this senate district, given how well he did in 2018.
SD 36 – In 2016, Republican Jeff Edler defeated Democrat Steve Sodders by a little less than 6 points. Again, this district trended to the right in 2016, with Trump carrying it by 13 points, and Obama carrying it by just over 8 points four years earlier. Worth including as a toss-up, because Sand carried the district (by a little more than 3 points) and Hubbell lost the district by a fairly narrow margin (a little less than 5 points), again an improvement for the Democrats over 2016. Democrats and Republicans each occupy a house district contained in SD 36, with neither house race being particularly competitive in 2018.
Lean R
This category contains two more Republican held seats, both of which also flipped to them in 2016, with again the (then) incumbent Democrats being defeated.
SD 32 – Republican Craig Johnson defeated Democrat Brian Schoenjahn by almost 20 points in 2016. This district went from supporting Obama by 8.5 points to voting for Trump by a little less than 15 points. In 2018 Hubbell lost the district (by a little less than 10 points), while Sand carried the district (by between 5 and 6 points.) With all of this said, this district could very likely be competitive in 2020, although Johnson should be favored to win, given the fundamentals of the district and the fact that he defeated a Democrat incumbent in 2016 by such as large margin. As with SD 36, Republicans and Democrats split the house districts here.
SD 46 – Republican Mark Lofgren defeated Democrat Chris Brasse by around 13.5 points in 2016. Obama carried this district about 12.5 points and Trump carried it by just under 8 points. Sand did about the same here as he did in SD 32, while Hubbell did a few points better than he did in that district, as he lost this district by just over 5 points. Republicans do occupy both of the corresponding house districts, with the incumbents getting reelected in both house districts by single digits in 2018. As with SD 32, Lofgren should probably be favored, assuming he runs, although this district may be a bit more competitive, as is it doesn’t seem to have trended red quite as much.
Likely R
This category contains four Republican held districts. These districts should be fairly safe, but may have the potential to become competitive. Each of these four senate districts is represented by Republicans in both of the corresponding house districts. Several of these house Republicans were elected by narrower margins than in 2016.
SD 24 – Republican Jerry Behn was reelected here by a little less than 28 points in 2016. This district swung heavily to the right in 2016, as it went for Trump by almost 19 points, having narrowly gone for Obama by almost 2 points four years earlier. This district is worth noting, as it made some progress back towards the Democrats in 2018, with Hubbell losing the district by a little less than 10 points, and Sand losing the district by a little less than 5 points.
SD 28 – This district went for Obama by between 8 and 9 percentage points and for Trump by between 15 and 16 percentage points. Republican Michael Breitbach was easily reelected here by about 22 points in 2016. (By contrast, in 2012, when this seat was open, Breitbach won by just 34 votes.) This district is worth noting because Sand carried the district by a pretty decent margin (a little bit better than his statewide margin, and about only 2 percentage points worse than Obama.) Hubbell, on the other hand, was less impressive here, as he lost this district by between 12 and 13 percentage points. It may be worthwhile to the point out that the Democrats nearly flipped one of the two house districts contained here, with the Republican incumbent being reelected by less than 20 votes (and possibly only winning due to Republicans in the legislature refusing to count absentee ballots.)
SD 38 – Probably the safest Republican held district on this list. I’m mainly including this district, because Sand lost the district by a pretty narrow margin. (He lost it by between 3 and 4 percentage points.) This district is fairly similar to SD 24 at the presidential level, at least with regards to Obama’s and Trump’s performances.
SD 48 – Republican Dan Zumbach was easily reelected here by almost 30 points in 2016. (Similar to SD 28, this district was open in 2012, and Zumbach won by a narrower margin.) Obama carried this district by around 5 points, and Trump carried it by about 15 points. This district largely warrants mention because Sand very narrowly carried the district by less than a percentage point. Hubbell lost the district by around 11 points, fairly typical of most of the “Likely R” districts.
Overall Rating (for control of the chamber): Lean R
Because the Democrats have a favorable map in 2020, the Democrats chances of taking control of the Iowa Senate aren’t as grim as they may appear to be on first sight. Nonetheless, the Republicans are still favored to retain control of the senate, as even if the Democrats swept all the Republican held toss ups (and no other seats changed parties), the Republicans would still have an outright (but narrow) majority. If the Democrats were somehow also able to flip the two “Lean R” seats, then the chamber would be tied. The Democrats taking outright control of this chamber, seems pretty unlikely, as it would require that they flip at least one “Likely R” seat.
As with the case of my Iowa House analysis, my sources include Daily Kos for the presidential and statewide election results, Ballotpedia (for the state senate races themselves), as well as the Bleeding Heartland website.