The ever-categorizing Nate Silver thinks Democratic candidates can be subdivided into four types, but like some of his analyses, ideology and policy diverge from the reality of the electorate.
This is worse in the current age of Trumpist sado-populism, such simplifying representational tendencies, because it’s still too early in the campaign.
For example, Kamala Harris could be a coalition builder, but her evisceration of William Barr in the Senate Judiciary committee hearing was more about being an obvious outsider and an experienced prosecutor. More problematic is that “Coalition Builder” seems correlated to skin color.
Typology is not destiny, especially in 2020, what with Mango Mussolini.
Bulletpoint No. 1: Here are the four major meta-messages for 2020
By meta-message, I mean an overall rationale for why the candidate is running and why you should choose him or her:
- Meta-Message No. 1: Liberal Policy Wonk. “I want to move the country to the left, and I have a lot of ideas for how to do it.”
- Meta-Message No. 2: Coalition-Builder. “I can unite the different factions of the Democratic Party and reflect the diverse identities of its voters.”
- Meta-Message No. 3: Outsider. “I may not be a traditional candidate, but I have a different perspective and some fresh ideas for how to shake things up.”
- Meta-Message No. 4: Electability & Experience. “I have a track record, and I know how to get stuff done — and I can beat Trump.”
Bulletpoint No. 2: It’s probably better to pick a lane and stick to it
So which candidates are taking which approaches? Let’s start with the easy ones:
Bulletpoint No. 3: Biden looks slightly weaker in Iowa and New Hampshire than nationally
If you’ve been reading FiveThirtyEight, you’ll know that we were bullish on Biden’s chances before it was cool. And even we didn’t expect him to surge in the polls as much as he has.
But one reason for caution is that neither Iowa nor New Hampshire figures to be a great state for Biden. Neither has a lot of black voters, his greatest strength in polls so far. Their electorates are quite liberal. And both emphasize retail campaigning, where Biden will probably cede ground to Sanders, Buttigieg and other candidates who are sharper on the stump.
fivethirtyeight.com/…
There will be the need, unlike prior elections, to deal with some harsh realities.