Elizabeth Warren won the inaugural 2019 Daily Kos straw poll back in early January. Two weeks later, riding the high of her announcement speech, Kamala Harris won the poll. But once Bernie Sanders announced, it’s been all him, since way back in February. But this week, in convincing manner, Elizabeth Warren has retaken the top spot.
Funny how Warren’s and Sanders’ vote percentages are an exact flip from two weeks ago.
|
6/11 |
5/29 |
5/14 |
5/1 |
4/15 |
4/2 |
3/18 |
2/18 |
2/5 |
1/22 |
1/8 |
E. Warren |
34 |
25 |
25 |
19 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
10 |
17 |
18 |
22 |
B. SANDERS |
25 |
34 |
26 |
34 |
40 |
33 |
38 |
44 |
13 |
12 |
11 |
J. Biden |
12 |
10 |
14 |
18 |
5 |
8 |
- |
8 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
P. BUTTIGIEG |
10 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
21 |
18 |
6 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
K. Harris |
7 |
11 |
11 |
8 |
9 |
11 |
11 |
15 |
27 |
27 |
14 |
A. Yang |
2 |
<2 |
<2 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
B. O’Rourke |
1 |
<2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
10 |
4 |
5 |
8 |
15 |
Others |
~7 |
~5 |
~7 |
~5 |
~7 |
~8 |
~18 |
~15 |
~21 |
-16 |
-15 |
UNSURE |
3 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
9 |
(Votes) |
57.5K |
39.8K |
60K |
53.1K |
35.5K |
40.2K |
52.5K |
56K |
42.2K |
28K |
35.5K |
The straw poll and public polling are in agreement. There are five serious contenders in this race: Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, and Kamala Harris. All the other 19 declared candidates combined can only muster around 8% of the vote. It doesn’t mean they don’t deserve to be heard! I just means that no one much cares to hear them out at this point. Or they heard them and said, “Pass”. Or they already found what they’re looking for among the Big Five. And you can’t blame money or name ID or establishment support for that anymore. Buttigieg catapulted himself from small-college-town Indiana to this national stage, handily passing by people with more … robust resumes. The internet is truly a great equalizer!
Warren is riding on a high after her viral moment from the MSNBC town hall, the one where she made mincemeat of Biden’s support for the Hyde Amendment. Her rallies are drawing thousands. Her “I’ve got a plan for that” catchphrase is landing. And yes, they may both be white women, but no one is comparing her to Hillary Clinton anymore.
In a comment yesterday on the site, community member Fatherflot wrote, “[F]air or not, [Warren] needed to create a clear identity for herself that drew a sharp distinction with Hillary. Instead of the aloof insider-technocrat, she is promoting herself as a kind of ‘Mary Poppins’ figure -— the cheerful, exuberant, uber-competent woman who simply gets things done and makes everyone feel included and proud.” I’ve got to say, “Mary Poppins figure” is really landing with me. I think it nails her vibe, and why we’re seeing a surprising dearth of “Is she likable?” stories and memes about her.
Thanks, Fatherflot! I’m going to use that from here on out.
Buttigieg has a nice strong base of support. Ten percent. It’s solid. Doesn’t look to be going anywhere. I know I’m tough on the guy, but I actually like him in the race. He is a gifted communicator, and it’s great to see him preaching the gospel of liberalism and motivating people to engage and be active in the primary process.
Harris leapt out of the gate strongly to an enthusiastic reception, and then … she’s been surprisingly quiet. She has a loyal, solid base of support, 8-11%, and seems to be ramping up for a late-year blitz. She’s staffed up significantly in Iowa, hiring over 50 organizers. (Warren is in the mid-30s. Biden has … TWO.) Her goal seems to be the Barack Obama-strategy—win or place well in Iowa, prove herself a serious candidate to the black community, then ride that to South Carolina victories and beyond. It’s not the worst plan of attack. It’s already worked once.
Has Joe Biden found a floor?
As for Bernie, his motivated online turnout machine turned out about as many votes this week as two weeks ago, but many more voted this time around overall. (Two weeks ago, this poll was drowned out by the Mueller press conference.) Hence, as a percentage, they were swamped by Warren voters. In other words, this isn’t an absolute drop in support, but a relative one. (I think I got that right ...)
One more note: If you look at that chart above, you can see some pretty wild up-and-down swings from all of the Big Five. People are still happy to swing between candidates, and there is a lot of campaign ahead of us. So nothing is steady; nothing is final. We are not even at halftime.
And there’s still a decent chance that someone emerges from the “Others” category to contend. This thing is far from over.
(A late surge pushed Andrew Yang to the 2% relegation line, making him the only other candidate to be guaranteed inclusion in future straw polls.)