Yesterday, Sanders released his $1.6 trillion student debt cancellation plan with AOC, Omar, Jayapal. While there has been ample coverage of the actual policy pros/cons, I haven’t seen any coverage of what this means for his campaign going forward. I believe it is actually a seminal moment in his campaign as he has essentially had a Cortez burning the ships moment.
Contrary to conventional wisdom(that is mostly a remnant from 2016 punditry), Bernie Sanders does not have a black problem, he has an age problem. And the punditry has analysed this age problem as a result of the “socialist” label. Below is a typical analysis.
But some of the same qualities that have made Sanders a folk hero among millennials could be repelling seniors. His embrace of democratic socialism and calls for a political revolution are likely a tougher sell to many older voters who lived through the Cold War and are generally more conservative.
Even his own campaign team has in the early stages of the campaign tried to woo older voters.
“He has a particularly strong case to make about improving and strengthening Medicare, cutting prescription drug costs, talking about long-term care and home care for the disabled community, and expanding Social Security,” said Faiz Shakir, Sanders’ campaign manager. “All of those issues ... have an appeal to older voters.”
The punditry in my opinion is wrong, he does not have an age problem because of the socialist label or that he is considered too radical, he has an age problem because his entire platform benefits the young and in some cases directly redistributes wealth from older to younger.
Let’s look at Sander’s signature issues;
Bernie Sanders Platform
Issue |
How older voters perceive it |
Medicare for All |
Older voters already have medicare or are about to be eligible for it, this certainly makes this signature issue affect older voters the least out of all other age groups. |
Free College Tuition |
Older voters are not going to college and even their children are mostly already in college or graduated already, free tuition will not impact their lives or their children. |
$15 Minimum Wage |
Older voters are not working jobs that pay minimum wage mostly since they are at the end of their careers and usually have higher wages, or else they are retired. How this could affect them is that they will have their cost of living increase due to increased prices. |
Student Debt Forgiveness |
The funding mechanism for this will be a stock transaction tax which is a redistributive tax from older generation to younger generation by lowering returns for all manner of pension funds, mutual funds. |
I think it’s pretty clear to see that Sanders signature platform doesn’t offer much for older voters, and I think that is a much better explanation of how rationally older voters aren’t attracted to him even discounting the whole “socialism” shtick.
With this Student Loan forgiveness policy, I think Sanders has essentially conceded the elderly vote and now has gone all in on turning out his base of younger voters. Whereas before his policy doesn’t really penalise older voters, a stock transaction tax WILL reduce stock returns in the short term, although there could be an argument that over the long term the economy would be stronger.
On Social media, there is already evidence that this will gain him a lot of supporters from other candidates that are attracting the young like Mayor Pete and Elizabeth Warren.
Strategically, this is a very bold move by the Sanders campaign, they have essentially gone all in on turning out the base. This is an attempt to create a completely new voting demographic, one that traditionally does not vote in primaries, and that will not show up in polls due to the turnout demographics in polls.