The 2020 election is shaping up nicely for Democrats so far and, *if things keep heading in this direction (*a big if), it could be a year where the White House is Democrats' to lose. Here’s a quick run down from this week of the advantages starting to come into focus for Democrats as well as a potential stumbling block that continues to resurface.
The Good
The last several weeks have featured several developments that, taken together, provide hopeful signs heading into election year.
Polls: Yes, they can be finicky and mislead and it's too early not to take them with a grain of salt. Nonetheless, Trump's job approvals in several key areas are sinking in the wake of what can only be described as his exceptionally crazy behavior. In particular, a Q poll this week found that he was underwater on the economy (46% approve/49% disapprove), and "for the first time since June 2016 more Americans say the economy is getting 'worse' (37%) than say it’s getting 'better' (31%). Also more people say Trump's policies are "hurting" the economy at 41% than those who say he is "helping" at 37%. These are very bleak numbers for Trump on what is by far his biggest/only selling point for reelection (unless you're a white supremacist).
GOP retirements: The number of Republicans retiring from both the House and the Senate is moving at a steady clip and continually expanding the map for Democrats. Not only have a dozen GOP representatives already announced they won't seek reelection, Democrats got a gift in the Senate with the retirement of Georgia Sen. Johnny Isakson, giving them another pickup opportunity and increasing the somewhat long odds that they could retake the upper chamber next year. More generally, the early rush for the exits suggests many Republicans think 2020 could be a blood bath and/or don't want any part of the GOP congressional delegation. Whatever their motivations, on the whole it’s good for Democrats and bad for Republicans.
GOP Primary: Trump has picked up some primary challengers from both the right and left wings of the Republican party. They have really no chance of prevailing against him, but they might just rough him up enough to send him limping into the general. "The only presidents who faced muscular primary challenges in the modern primary era1 were all under 75% approval with members of their own party: Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. And yes, all three went on to lose the general election," writes FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich.
More broadly, we have been getting a glimpse of how Trump reacts when he's absolutely desperate, which is exactly the mental state he’s in as he frets over a potential economic downturn. Predictably, Trump gets even more erratic and more unhinged, which only deepens his downward spiral. In the short-term, it's bad for the country. But it also might just increase Democrats' chances of prevailing next year and saving the republic.
The Bad
The Washington Post's story about Joe Biden's moving but false war story was just plain worrisome. Here’s a key excerpt:
“This is the God’s truth,” Biden had said as he told the story. “My word as a Biden.”
Except almost every detail in the story appears to be incorrect. Based on interviews with more than a dozen U.S. troops, their commanders and Biden campaign officials, it appears as though the former vice president has jumbled elements of at least three actual events into one story of bravery, compassion and regret that never happened.
In a follow up interview, Biden failed to see anything wrong with the fact that he wove together a virtual fairytale, even if the central element of his story was true. (Biden did, in fact, award a Bronze Star to Staff Sgt. Chad Workman in what was a touching moment for both men.)
“I was making the point how courageous these people are, how incredible they are, this generation of warriors, these fallen angels we’ve lost,” Biden told the Post. “I don’t know what the problem is. What is it that I said wrong?”
The Ugly
When I first saw the report on Biden earlier this week, I was troubled by it. Then came his absolute refusal to take any responsibility for repackaging an amalgam of incidents into a compelling narrative that was effectively a fairytale of sorts. At what point, I wondered, do Democratic voters really take this up and start grappling with it? This isn’t one-off, it’s just the latest/worst example of Biden embellishing, misremembering—whatever you want to call it.
Look, I have obviously been impressed by the campaign Elizabeth Warren is running and I have written several times on the topic. At times, I have also felt inspired by the candidacy of Kamala Harris. But more than anything, I want Democrats to field a candidate that people can really feel good about enthusiastically supporting next year. I wish I thought Biden could be that candidate but I am having serious doubts about it. Sure, he's got high approvals with Democratic voters and independent voters now, but what happens when all those voters really start paying attention next year? Isn't it up to the people who are paying attention now to deeply consider whether Biden really has what it takes and, if not, sound the alarm bells now before it's too late.
The biggest problems I see with Biden performing this way as the Democratic nominee are twofold. First, a forgetful or confused or fantastical Biden would rob Democrats of one their biggest selling points: That we are fielding a candidate who is grounded in reality and can be trusted to tell the truth. As Nevada political guru Jon Ralston told MSNBC's Chris Matthews on Friday: "Think about who the Democrats are running against—they are running against the guy who has been proven to make things up, to be a pathological liar. They don't want that issue diluted in a general election." The idea that Democrats would restore sanity to the White House would unquestionably be diluted if Biden continued making up stories or mixing up where he was when an event took place and whether he even witnessed it. Sure, Biden has much better intentions that Trump, but that doesn't change the fact that people might start to wonder if he's fit for office. The last thing Democrats want to is to get into a gray area where we end up arguing that our nominee’s fibs aren’t as bad as Trump’s because he has better intentions.
My second qualm is whether Biden can motivate the Democratic base that was so electrified in 2018, turned out in droves, and delivered historic wins to House Democrats. I keep imagining what it will be like if we head into November 2020 with a moderate Democrat who is running a mediocre campaign and House Democrats have still failed to find any way of holding Trump accountable as he burns down our democracy through his lawlessness. Is that what voters thought they were getting when they showed up in 2018 in historic numbers to fight the good fight and save our country from potential demise. Seriously, how demoralizing would that be?
I offer these insights from the gut, without fancy prose, in their barest and most simplistic form. It seems important to float these ideas and concerns and let readers mull them in the comments (which frankly might not be kind to me) and elsewhere.
One of the prevailing and most important lessons I have learned in my life is that refusing to talk about the elephant in the room doesn't mean it's not there and it certainly doesn't make it go away. I feel like Biden's lackluster and sometimes problematic showing in the early stages of the Democratic primary is the elephant in the room many people don't want to discuss. Perhaps I am wrong. Perhaps people are super pleased by him—certainly reporters tell us he is generally well received on the campaign trail.
But if I'm right about that hunch—if avoidance is the order of the day—it does not bode well for the party heading into next year. These problems will not simply vanish into thin air. They never do.