Hurricane Dorian, as you are all well aware, with sustained winds near 150 mph, has been pulverizing the Grand Bahama Island for the past 36 hours and is expected to slowly move away towards the Florida coast later today. Here, we take a look at the current status of Dorian and its prognosis over the next few days.
The good news (for Florida) — Dorian has been stuck in its current position just north of the Grand Bahama Island for over 36 hours, which increases the probability that it will stay farther offshore as it moves towards the mainland.
The bad news — the Grand Bahama Island has faced hurricane winds and storm surges for an extended period like no other place before. And it’s not over yet.
Here is the 5 a.m. forecast and advisory from the NHC. The projected path, based on various weather models, has not changed much since yesterday. Max sustained winds have reduced to 120 mph and the darn hurricane is hardly moving, although it did slink a bit northwards overnight.
Dorian wind speeds may pick up a bit today as it leaves the shallow waters off Grand Bahama island; its wind field will certainly widen as it approaches Florida. Currently, hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km), which is wider than it was yesterday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 26.9N 78.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 27.5N 78.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 28.5N 79.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 29.9N 79.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 31.4N 79.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 34.3N 76.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 39.0N 69.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 46.5N 59.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
Here are the reported positions of Dorian over the past 36 hours — you can see that it barely budged yesterday, but it moved northwards a bit overnight -
Mon Sep 2
- 2 am 26.6N 78.1W
- 5 am 26.6N 78.2W
- 8 am 26.7N 78.2W
- 11 am 26.8N 78.3W
- 12 pm 26.8N 78.4W
- 2 pm 26.8N 78.4W
- 5 pm 26.8N 78.4W
- 9 pm 26.8N 78.4W
- 11 pm 26.9N 78.5W
Tue Sep 3
- 12 am 26.8N 78.4W
- 2 am 26.9N 78.4W
- 5 am 26.9N 78.4W
- 7 am 27.0N 78.4W
- 9 am 27.1N 78.5W (it’s moving!)
- 11 am 27.1N 78.6W (moving at 2 mph)
- 12 pm 27.2N 78.6W (2 mph)
- 1 pm 27.4N 78.6W (3 mph)
- 2 pm 27.5N 78.7W (5 mph!)
- 5 pm 27.7N 78.7W (trotting at 6 mph)
- 8 pm 28.1N 78.8W (6 mph)
- 11 pm 28.4N 79.0W (6 mph)
Current Forecasts
There are a multitude of weather prediction models that have been hard at work churning out their predictions round the clock. All of them predict Dorian staying offshore, perhaps scraping the space coast and the outer banks. There still will be heavy rain, winds and storm surge in areas near the coast. There are differences on how close to the coast Dorian will approach.
Here are recent runs of the major weather models from web.uwm.edu/… — they are quite consistent with each other and hence confidence is high in the forecast by the NHC. South and North Carolina need to be on alert. The 18Z model runs show the forecast tracks shift westward and closer to the NC coast than the previous run.
ECMWF has also been trending westward, increasing threat level for coastal SC and NC.
HWRF is also forecasting similar tracks.
The NHC is the gold standard for forecasts, do pay attention to it. Most of the stalling and movement of Dorian was predicted by models before it happened. Yes, the track has shifted eastwards over time, but forecasts made 5 days in advance tend to have more variability than those done 3 days in advance; that is the nature of weather forecasting science.
According to the NHC, the stalling has occurred because steering currents in Dorian’s vicinity have collapsed. The global models indicate that a weakness in the subtropical ridge will develop in response to a trough that will amplify along the east coast of the United States within the next day or so. Dorian should respond to these changes by beginning to move north-northwestward toward the weakness in the ridge a little later today. Yes, these predictions are made using science and models, not just by observing past history.
Check out yesterday’s diary “Hurricane Dorian - What Next and Why?” at www.dailykos.com/… for some insights on the science behind weather predictions.
This is a good video from Levi Cowan explaining why the forecasts predict what they predict.
Keeping an eye on the trough and its future development (through modeling), that will help keep Dorian offshore -
This is a wind map for Tuesday 11:00 p.m. EDT. It shows Dorian’s eye located off the coast of Florida but sustained winds of 53 mph slamming the shore. One can imagine the storm surge this slow moving hurricane is going to cause. So, let’s not let our guards down yet.
Preparations
There are mandatory evacuation orders in many coastal areas in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. Please check your local advisories.
Orlando airport is closed.
A surreal sight of lane reversals -
The Devastation
Here are some videos and images documenting the devastation in Abaco island and the Grand Bahama Island. Heartbreaking.
Abaco looks like a nuclear bomb exploded on the island -
Aerial survey of Abaco -
The Grand Bahama Island -
Marsh Harbour -
A summary of the historic tragedy -
Here is an eye-opening image from a new Finnish/Polish micro satellite that makes earth observations using synthetic aperture radar, which can see right through clouds and rain. The yellow lines at the top are the original coastline. All of the Freeport area north of the Grand Bahama highway, including the airport, is under water in this image taken on Monday.
The Hurricane Hunters
NOAA and the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron (53rd WRS) have been busy round the clock sending aircraft with special instrumentation into the hurricane to make more precise and frequent measurements of parameters within Dorian.
Here is a surreal video made by the crew of NOAA’s “Kermit” aircraft from inside the eye of Dorian -
And one from the dedicated men and women of the 53rd WRS -
www.tropicaltidbits.com/… is a terrific site that plots the data from these recon flights in near real-time in 10-minute increments. Here is an example of the flight path across Dorian today of the NOAA recon plane. Each number in the chart represents the dropping of a dropsonde, a device that measures and relays vital signs of the hurricane as it falls down towards the ocean.
Here is the data for the above flight -
What’s next next?
There are 3 other storms brewing in the Atlantic, that the NHC is keeping an eye on -
The storm in the Gulf of Mexico now has a name — Fernand, headed for NE Mexico -
Epilogue
As is usually the case, forecasts will firm up today. The forecast for the U.S. mainland at this point contains a narrow range of possibilities, but a wide range of possible damage and destruction. So, the best advise is to listen to forecasts and instructions from the NHC and local authorities, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
References and further reading
- Hurricane Dorian Forecasts, Updates and Science — www.dailykos.com/…
- Hurricane Dorian - What Next? — www.dailykos.com/…
- How To Tame a Hurricane — www.dailykos.com/
Other Resources
Updates
The 11 am advisory shows Dorian is moving NW at 2 mph! Max. sustained winds have dropped to 110 mph. NHC is quick to point out that the combined wind, surge, and floods hazards are the same or even worse since the hurricane has become larger. Hurricane-force winds now extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).