Contrary to what the media says, Trump supporters will abandon him if he breaks his campaign promises. And he’s broken almost every one.
Trump promised, “no cuts to Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid.” Yet he’s called for cutting all three. He targeted entitlements because of another broken promise -- that the tax cuts would pay for themselves. They won’t. They’ll add $1.5 -2 trillion to the deficit.
Trump promised to replace Obamacare and that no one would lose coverage -- everybody would be insured; and healthcare would cost “a lot less.” One study has premiums rising between 35 to 94% under his plan, with the South and Midwest getting hit the hardest.
Trump’s repeal of the tax on those who don’t buy coverage will increase the number of uninsured by 13 million because more healthy people won’t buy insurance, causing premiums for the unhealthy to rise between 6 and 16%. Fewer people will be covered for the type of care that prevents chronic disease, which is responsible for 85% of healthcare costs. Premiums for Silver plans would increase 19% because Trump stopped reimbursing insurers for losses on policies for low-income people.
Trump promised his tariffs would narrow trade deficits and bring back jobs. But under his leadership, the trade deficit went from $503 billion in 2016 to $628 billion in 2018, and the balance of trade with 10 of our biggest trading partners moved in the wrong direction. The deficit with Mexico hit its highest in a decade. The new NAFTA, which is stuck in Congress, won’t narrow it and is unlikely to bring back jobs. The trade deficit with China is near a record. Worldwide, it’s expected to grow by 7-8% for 2019.
China’s retaliatory tariffs caused U.S. exports to drop by more than 26%. Soybean exports plummeted more than $10 billion. The damage may be long-lasting because China lowered tariffs on other trading partners and found new suppliers in the EU, Argentina, Brazil and Russia. Trump’s latest tariffs will cost the average American household $1,000 per year.
Trump promised to stop China’s cyber-attacks, unfair subsidies and forced technology transfer. He blew that opportunity by abandoning the Transpacific Partnership. TPP was a trade pact with eleven Pacific Rim countries that excluded China. It would have been a powerful negotiating tool with China because it contained protection against the very abuses Trump promised to stop. It also had stronger labor standards to make U.S. more competitive.
TPP eliminated 18,000 tariffs on American-made goods and agricultural products. Leaving it lost the U.S. trade pacts representing 40% of global GDP. Trump called TPP a “disaster,” a “rape of our country,” and a “terrible” deal. But it’s inconceivable that he ever read it (a good bet for a president who doesn’t read).
Trump promised his “America First” isolationist foreign policy would make America great again. But it’s opened the world to China’s $1.2 – 1.4 trillion Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that has China building railways, pipelines, highways and fifty economic zones across 70 countries. BRI will gain China a military presence, trade relationships, and political alliances across the globe that supplant America’s. It can create the world’s largest economic bloc, into which the U.S. will be forced to integrate.
Experts urge the U.S. to confront BRI by developing competing relationships with BRI countries. But Trump’s dedicated a paltry $60 billion to do the job – far too little considering the $1.2 trillion to $1.4 trillion China will invest, and far too late to reverse BRI’s progress.
America First also emboldened China and Russia to build a $50 million satellite control center in Argentina and a satellite-tracking station in Managua respectively. Now Russia is looking to reopen military bases in the region.
Trump alienated Latin America by proposing aid reductions, cutting $500 million in aid, imposing sanctions and an embargo on several countries, and sending Vice President Pence to the Summit of Americas instead of going himself. China jumped in and passed the U.S. as the largest export market for seven Latin American countries. Russia and China also sold billions in military equipment to the region and are influencing its political decisions.
Trump reversed Obama’s Cuba policy, imposing sanctions on the island, then watching as China became Cuba’s largest creditor and trading partner, and Russia loaned $43 million to Havana to beef up its defense by purchasing Russian military equipment.
Trump broke his promise to rid himself of conflicts of interest by turning over control of his businesses to his sons. He retained stakes in 500 internal businesses -- no other president had any. The Government Ethics Director resigned over Trump’s refusal to end his conflicts.
Worse, Trump compromises foreign policy for his own financial gain. Seventy-two hours before he announced lifting sanctions against Chinese telecom company ZTE over bipartisan objections, China agreed to lend $500 million to an Indonesian resort in which the Trump Organization is a partner. Then Ivanka Trump received twelve Chinese trademarks.
When Qatar refused to bail out Trump’s 666 Fifth Avenue, Jared Kushner backed a trade blockade of Qatar and Trump labeled Qatar a “funder of terror.” Months later, a fund in which Qatar invests loaned $184 million to a Trump office building, Trump praised Qatar’s fight against terrorism and called for a resolution of the blockade.
Trump sold arms to Saudi Arabia over bipartisan objections, and refused to punish its Crown Prince for murdering Jamal Khashoggi. Then he boasted, "They spend $40 million, $50 million…” on my businesses. … I like them very much.”
Trump claimed he alone could denuclearize North Korea. But right after the Hanoi Summit, where Trump claimed that Kim started to denuclearize, North Korea continued rebuilding a long-range rocket site and sported a nuclear-armed missile that can reach the U.S. Twenty previously unknown missile sites were discovered. Kim currently has thirty to sixty nuclear weapons.
Trump pledged, “I will build a great … wall” and have Mexico pay for it. To justify it he claimed, “Our southern border is a pipeline for vast quantities of [drugs]” that the wall drastically reduce. Wrong. 90% of heroin, 88% of cocaine, 87% of methamphetamine, and 80% of fentanyl were caught at legal crossings, not open spaces. There is no wall and it’s unlikely there will ever be one.
In 2016 Trump promised to reduce the national debt from $18 trillion and shrink the budget deficit. Since then the debt and deficit have hit records. Other than in wartime, this is the first presidency in which the deficit and debt ever grew during periods of low unemployment and high GDP growth.
Trump claims credit for the robust economy, but he inherited it. The Obama administration had greater GDP, productivity and job growth. Trump’s job growth is nearly a million short of Obama’s. Even the stock market --Trump’s favorite measure – was up 49% under Obama to Trump’s 27% as of this writing. Trump’s tax cuts failed to generate the promised business investment and barely contributed to economic growth.
It will take a Democrat who is credible with Republicans to deliver this message. Barak Obama is the best choice. Trump’s approval rating fell by 19% among those who voted for Obama in 2012 and then Trump in 2016. They are the most likely to switch back to a Democrat if Obama delivers the message. They represent 5% of 2016 voters – enough to make the difference given Trump’s narrow margin of victory in 2016. Obama has enough credibility and popularity with Republicans to sway them. He has a 57% national approval rating and 98% name recognition. Perhaps the urgency of beating Trump will motivate him to speak out.
Bernie Sanders is another possibility regardless of whether he gets the nomination. He’s the most popular Democrat among voters that aren't paying attention to the campaign, which would include Republicans. 12% of those who voted for Sanders in the 2016 primaries crossed over to Trump in the national election. They will still listen to him.
Many voted for Trump because they believed he had a basis to make his promises stick. It’s now obvious he didn’t. Yet after more than two and a half years of broken promises, thousands of lies, ugly insults, hiring sycophants, using his office for personal gain and embracing tyrants, Trump still enjoys a 40 – 45% approval rating.
Several theories suggest why. Many supporters are uninformed, so Trump focuses on them for support. His racism appeals to some. Many mistakenly give him credit for the economy.
The terms sunk costs and cognitive dissonance can also explain why Trump supporters stay with him. “Sunk costs” refer to a wrong decision that a person sticks to because it’s difficult to admit they made a mistake. “Cognitive dissonance” is an inconsistency between what people want to believe and reality, causing them to filter out facts that contradict their beliefs.
It takes great discipline and courage to overcome these things. But voters have an obligation to all Americans to be informed about their candidates and to have the decency to change their minds if warranted. Only then will America elect the best people for the country.
Neil Baron is an attorney who has represented many institutions involved in the international markets and advised various parts of the federal government on economic issues.