On January 11, 2020 voters in Taiwan go to the polls to select their next President as well as elect all 113 members of Taiwan’s legislative body otherwise known as the Legislative Yuan. President Tsai Ing-Wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) faces off against Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-Yu of the KMT.
While the latest opinion polls show Tsai on track for a comfortable win, this wasn’t always the case. Tsai whose approval ratings were initially very high plummeted from her election in 2016 to the beginning of this year as her administration was battered by setback after setback both internationally and domestically. Tsai’s political standing hit rock bottom in 2018 when the DPP suffered major losses in the midterm elections in Taiwan because of her unpopularity.
Tsai was poised to lose reelection, but thanks to a variety of factors such as the Trade War, Chinese intransigence, political stumbles by the opposition and the ongoing protests in Hong Kong she regained her political footing just in time for the elections on January 11th.
So is Taiwan an independent country or a part of China?
Before I go into the rest of the diary I need to explain the answer to that question which is the fault line of Taiwanese society.
While China claims Taiwan as a wayward province that needs to be reunited with the motherland the answer to that question is complicated in Taiwan. The official name of the Taiwanese government is the Republic of China (ROC) while the official name of the Chinese government is the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
This all comes down to its history. After the Communists led by Mao Zedong defeated the Kuomintang (KMT), otherwise known as the Nationalists led by Chiang Kai-Shek in 1949, the latter fled to Taiwan to lick his wounds and continue the Republic of China government in Taiwan while the former established the People’s Republic of China. Except for Great Britain, the USSR and its allies the rest of the world recognized the ROC as the legitimate rulers of China.
Chiang and the Nationalists believed their time in Taiwan would be temporary and after regaining sufficient strength they would invade the Mainland and kick out the Communists. Those plans never came to fruition and Chiang would live the rest of his life in Taiwan where he is buried to this day.
The ROC would soldier onto the present day, but after the US recognized the PRC as the legitimate rulers of China in the 1970s, Taiwan lost most of it’s international recognition as well as their representation on the United Nations. Therefore Taiwan exists in a gray area where it's not formally seen as a part of China, but it isn’t recognized as an independent country either.
You can see this idiosyncrasy whenever you step foot in Taiwan. The flag carrier of Taiwan is called China Airlines, Taiwanese passports have the name “Republic of China” emblazoned on their front cover and Taiwan’s baseball league is named the Chinese Professional Baseball League.
Furthermore depending on who you talk in Taiwan, both Taiwan and China agreed in 1992 that there is only one China and agreed to disagree whether the PRC or ROC are the legitimate rulers of China.
This also boils down on generational lines with the older generation especially those who came over to Taiwan after the Chinese Civil War see themselves as Chinese and that the ROC are the true rulers of China. But the younger generation in Taiwan sees themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese and believe that Taiwan is its own separate, independent nation.
Taiwanese politics since 2016
In 2016, Tsai Ing-Wen and her DPP party were swept into office in a landslide. The election was historic not just because Taiwan elected its first female president, but because the KMT lost its majority on the Legislative Yuan for the first time in history.
The 2016 election was a rebuke of the pro-China policies of then President Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT who under oversaw unprecedented normalization of ties between China and Taiwan. And in a move reminiscent of Nixon going to China, Ma publicly shook hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping, had dinner together during a summit between both sides in Singapore in 2015.
But Ma would pay a huge political price for seeking to normalize relations. Opposition to Ma’s pro-China policies, especially among young people in Taiwan exploded into the Sunflower Movement which culminated in protesters storming the Legislative Yuan in 2014 and occupying it for over a month until the Ma administration dropped plans for a controversial free trade deal with China that critics claimed would give China control of a large part of Taiwan’s economy.
The Sunflower Movement politically damaged the KMT with the party being routed by the DPP in the local elections held later in the year. The political damage stretched into 2016 where KMT infighting that culminated in the KMT’s Presidential nominee Hung Hsiu-Chu being replaced by New Taipei Mayor Eric Chu due to the former’s lackluster poll numbers and pro-China/pro-unification views which were a major liability. The KMT was still routed by the DPP that year, not only losing the Presidency but for the first time ever lost control of the Legislative Yuan to the DPP.
Almost immediately Tsai’s administration ran into trouble both internationally and domestically. China, angry that Tsai would not publicly support the 1992 Consensus and rule out formal Taiwanese independence; cut off all contact with Taiwan, slapped Taiwan with economic sanctions, ramped up military drills in the Taiwan strait and worked to further isolate Taiwan internationally by poaching the few countries that had formal relations with Taiwan.
Tsai’s approach to Cross-Strait Relations (China-Taiwan relations) earned her no friends. On one hand she took fire for supposedly needlessly antagonizing China which Taiwan’s economy is increasingly reliant on.
At the same time Tsai’s base grew angry that she didn’t do more to confront China and assert Taiwan’s sovereignty.
Domestically things didn’t go much better. Tsai’s labor law, overtime reforms angered both the pro-business and labor wings of the DPP. Furthermore voters’ anger grew over Taiwan’s stagnant economy. But the most damaging misstep of Tsai’s first term in office was when she pushed through pension reforms that cut the pensions of veterans, public school teachers and civil servants. The reforms also cut the pensions of soldiers who fought in the Chinese Civil War. In the ensuing protests before the reforms were cut, military veterans tried to storm the Legislative Yuan while KMT and DPP parliamentarians scuffled on the floor of the legislature.
Tsai’s approval ratings as a result of these setbacks sent her approval ratings into a free fall and at the 2018 midterm elections the DPP suffered an embarrassing loss to the resurgent KMT. The party even lost the mayor’s race in the southern city of Kaohsiung, normally a DPP stronghold to the KMT’s candidate Han Kuo-yu.
As a result of the DPP’s drubbing in the midterms, Tsai resigned as chairwoman of the DPP. Her Premier William Tsai also tendered his resignation and soon after launched a primary challenge against her for the 2020 DPP Presidential nomination.
Going into 2019, Tsai was a lame duck and likely was going to lose her reelection bid if she didn’t instead save face instead and drop out. But then events both domestically and internationally broke in her favor:
China
On January 1, 2019 Chinese President Xi Jinping fronted the cameras to restate China’s position on Taiwan which was that Taiwan must 1) abandon all thoughts of formal independence, 2) submit to reunification with China under the One Country, Two Systems model and 3) China will not hesitate to use military force to bring about reunification.
In the grand scheme of things this was nothing new, but this was the first time Xi Jinping dedicated an entire speech to the issue of Taiwan. Furthermore the speech signaled a hardening on the Chinese side with Xi saying One Country, Two Systems was the only possible future for Taiwan.
Almost immediately Tsai responded by denouncing the 1992 Consensus on the grounds it was accepting One Country, Two Systems which even before the recent events in Hong Kong was controversial in Taiwan. She also restated her “four musts” for peaceful cross strait relations (Chinese-Taiwan relations):
- Beijing must accept the existence of the ROC and it’s democratic form of government
- Beijing must respect Taiwan’s commitment to freedom and democracy and not attempt to interfere with their political choices
- Cross strait relations must be handled peacefully and on an equal basis
- Beijing must engage in government to government negotiations and not try to bypass the democratic elected leaders of Taiwan.
Tsai’s rebuttal to Xi’s speech was widely praised across the political spectrum for its forcefulness. Her approval ratings which had sunk to an all time low of 24% went up to 31% in the weeks after. Events in Hong Kong over six months later would further strengthen Tsai’s hand and sharpen her argument that she was the one best equipped to defend Taiwan’s sovereignty from an increasingly belligerent China.
In addition the trade war between China and the US gave Tsai some much needed good news on the economic front where she had been battered by voters’ anger over economic stagnation. In order to avoid US tariffs, Taiwanese technology companies such as Foxconn have begun to relocate their manufacturing lines from China back to Taiwan.
Hong Kong
While there’s been a debate on how much the six month long pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong has helped Tsai’s poll numbers, there’s no doubt that protests and the subsequent brutal crackdown by the authorities in Hong Kong helped Tsai and the DPP refocus the election on the issue of Taiwanese sovereignty. Taiwan, which long has had deep cultural, economic ties with Hong Kong has reacted to the Hong Kong protests with a mixture of sadness and worry that Taiwan could become another Hong Kong in the future.
From the beginning of the protests in June until now, the Taiwan government led by Tsai has been one of the most vocal supporters of the Hong Kong protesters.
The events in Hong Kong was another way of sharpening arguments around the age old issue of Taiwanese sovereignty where the DPP is the strongest and the KMT is not. In the run-up to election day Tsai has on multiple occasions cited the events in Hong Kong as to why Taiwan must defend its sovereignty and reject One Country, Two Systems so as to avoid Hong Kong’s dystopian present under Chinese rule.
Furthermore the DPP have included references to the Hong Kong protests in campaign ads and campaign literature:
The events in Hong Kong forced Han and the KMT to backtrack on their calls for closer ties with China. With Hong Kong and Taiwanese sovereignty at the forefront the KMT couldn’t run against Tsai on the economy. It especially put Han into an uncomfortable position because one of his first acts as Mayor was to travel to Hong Kong on a trade trip where he met with both Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam and Wang Zhimin, the highest ranking member of the Chinese Government in Hong Kong.
He further compounded his blundering when he said back in June he didn’t know why millions of Hongkongers flooded the streets to protest the now shelved extradition bill before backtracking and saying that he had a headache when the question was asked. While Han forcefully came out against One Country, Two Systems he clearly is uncomfortable talking about the issue especially when he lashed out at Tsai during a debate and accused her of exploiting the protests in Hong Kong for her own electoral benefit.
Domestic politics
One of the main reasons why Tsai’s approval ratings and subsequent political standing recovered rapidly in 2019 was because of political events back home. The primary challenge against her from Lai fizzled out as even members of the pro-independence wing of the DPP criticized his run against Tsai.
Furthermore Tsai benefited from disagreement within the party about how to conduct the primary, who would be allowed to participate in the primary since according to DPP party rules the primary would be held via an average of public opinion polls instead of an election where DPP members had to cast ballots which prevented the primary election from being held until June. This gave Tsai time to shore up her position within the party. Lai’s primary argument that he was the most electable candidate fizzled out as opinion polls showed him performing worst against possible KMT Presidential candidates than Tsai.
When the DPP finally conducted five opinion polls that would determine the party’s nominee for President, Tsai bested Lai 35.67% to 27.48%.
But the primary left no hard feelings because Tsai selected Lai as her running mate in November.
Another reason why Tsai is favored to win the election was because of the selection of Han Kuo-Yu as the KMT Presidential Nominee. Despite the fact Han has been in politics for over two decades, he’s a relative newcomer to the political scene who became a political star overnight after winning the Kaohsiung’s mayor race which was akin to Doug Jones winning a Senate seat in Alabama.
Han is uniquely polarizing among even his own party the KMT. Much like Trump, Han crashed into the KMT’s presidential primary with a large and passionate following that disrupted the carefully laid plans of KMT politicians like former Legislative Speaker Eric Chu. Han’s base, much like Trump’s had no time to listen to KMT bigwigs. Case in point, former President Ma was heckled off the stage by Han's supporters at a KMT rally in New Taipei City.
Furthermore unlike the DPP, the KMT failed to immediately unify around Han after he won the primary. One of Han’s major opponents in the primary, former Foxconn CEO Terry Gou (who himself shocked all of Taiwan by throwing his hat into the Presidential race) toyed with a independent run for months before deciding against it. He didn’t endorse Han either.
Han also received a drumbeat of criticism from people in Kaohsiung angry that he took a leave of absence as mayor (remember he was elected only in 2018) to run for President. It also didn’t help his cause that thousands of people in Kaohsiung marched in the streets against his candidacy in December.
He’s also had to fight back against accusations that he is pro-China and will sell out Taiwan’s sovereignty if elected. He didn’t help his cause by personally visiting several Chinese cities, meeting with Chinese government officials from both the Taiwan Affairs Office and the Chinese government office handling Hong Kong. It also came out over the summer of 2019 that during his 2018 mayor run, Han benefited from Chinese Cyber operatives boosting him as well as flattering news stories from Taiwanese media companies suspected of receiving their marching orders from the Chinese Government.
Editors Note: Do to my extreme procrastination I may yet eat my words because as I have finished this diary it is Saturday morning in Taiwan where the polls are open.