The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● NY-27: On Friday, former GOP Rep. Chris Collins was sentenced to 26 months in prison for his part in an insider-trading scheme. Prosecutors had asked for a five-year sentence for the former New York congressman, who resigned in late September one day before he pleaded guilty, while the U.S. Probation Office suggested an even lighter sentence than the one he got.
Campaign Action
Until he was arrested in 2018, Collins had enjoyed a long and fairly successful career in politics in the Buffalo area. While Collins, who had made a fortune in business, had badly lost a bid for the U.S. House in 1998 to Democratic incumbent John LaFalce, he rose to prominence nearly a decade later when he was elected executive of Erie County in a landslide.
Collins was talked about as a potential candidate for governor in 2009, and there were signs that Republicans saw him as a backup contender if their first choice, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, didn't run. However, the party wasn't so keen on Collins after he suggested that then-Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, who is Jewish, was an anti-Christ, and neither he nor Giuliani ended up running in the end.
Collins lost re-election in 2011 to Democrat Mark Poloncarz by a 53-47 margin, but he quickly set his sights on another race. Democrat Kathy Hochul had pulled off an upset win earlier that year in a conservative Buffalo-area congressional district, and she was a top target even before court-drawn redistricting made her seat more conservative.
Collins entered the GOP primary for the 27th Congressional District and defeated Army veteran David Bellavia, who would later become the first living American to receive the Medal of Honor for service in the Iraq War, 60-40. Hochul put up a strong fight, but Mitt Romney's 55-43 victory in the seat helped propel Collins to a narrow 51-49 win.
Collins found himself in an embarrassing situation before he was even sworn in after he accidentally crashed a Democratic caucus meeting. A Democratic staffer recounted to Roll Call, "When they welcomed Leader Pelosi and everyone stood up to applaud, a frantic new member got up — breakfast plate in hand—rushed over to me and asked, 'Wait ... what meeting is this?!'" After the new member, who was soon identified as Collins, was told he was in the Democratic caucus, he responded, "Oh shit I'm in the wrong meeting. Where are the Republicans meeting?"
However, Collins soon settled into the GOP caucus, and he didn't attract much attention for another few years. In February of 2016, though, Collins became the first member of Congress to endorse Donald Trump's presidential bid. Trump went on to carry Collins' seat in a 60-35 landslide.
There was talk that Collins could wind up in the Trump cabinet or even as his chief of staff, but he stayed in the House. The congressman soon got bad headlines in 2017 when the Office of Congressional Ethics released a report saying there was "substantial reason to believe" that he "shared material nonpublic information" about an Australian biotech company he'd invested heavily in—in other words, engaged in insider trading—and Collins' $17 million investment was wiped out last year when the company's lone drug failed in clinical trials.
Collins hadn't faced a serious threat since he defeated Hochul, but he picked up a stronger than usual Democratic challenge in 2018 from Grand Island Town Supervisor Nate McMurray. However, the incumbent still looked safe until he was arrested for insider trading in August. Collins, who was indicted along with his son and potential successor, Cameron Collins, immediately pleaded not guilty and called the charges "meritless," but he soon announced that he was dropping his re-election campaign.
However, Collins' decision came well after the New York primary had passed, and state law made it very difficult for him to get off the ballot. While one election law expert, Alan Goldston, wryly observed, "If he really wanted to get off the ballot he could just plead guilty" because political parties are allowed to replace candidates who are convicted of crimes, the congressman didn't take this option. After a month of uncertainty, the incumbent declared that he would seek re-election after all.
Collins quickly turned to xenophobia to win a fourth term and ran a commercial showing footage of McMurray speaking in Korean, and the on-screen text alleged that the candidate "[h]elped American companies hire foreign workers" and led to fewer jobs for American and more jobs "for China and Korea." McMurray used the original video, which he'd since pulled down, to talk about his hopes for peace between North and South Korea, but the Collins ad instead implied that he was bragging about shipping jobs overseas.
The indicted Collins defeated McMurray, but by just a slim 49.1-48.7 margin. The Democrat soon made it clear he'd run again if Collins was on the ballot, and several other Republicans also announced in 2019 that they'd challenge the congressman for renomination. Collins sounded ready to stay and fight for a fifth term, but all that changed in late September when he resigned and soon pleaded guilty.
4Q Fundraising
● TX-02: Dan Crenshaw (R-inc): $1.6 million raised
● TX-23: Gina Ortiz Jones (D): $826,000 raised, $2 million cash-on-hand
Senate
● AL-Sen: Former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions is out with a new TV spot ahead of the March GOP primary, and Advertising Analytics reports that he's putting at least $325,000 behind this buy.
The narrator begins the ad by venturing into the deep fever dreams of primary voters and declaring, "Socialism. Open borders. Free healthcare for illegal immigrants. That's the Democrats' plan for America." He continues, "And they plan to gut our religious freedom and our freedom of speech. These radicals always blame America First," before Sessions himself appears halfway through the commercial. "Today's Democrats want to redefine America, and they mean business," the candidate insists, "They don't want me in the Senate, because they know I won't back down."
The narrator comes back at the end and calls Sessions "the man the Democrats fear, a conservative you can trust." For once, the spot doesn't mention Donald Trump, though there's footage at the end of Sessions speaking at a 2016 campaign rally decked in a MAGA cap.
● GA-Sen-B: A survey from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling taken just after Republican Kelly Loeffler was appointed to this seat last month found that she was largely a blank slate with her party's voters, but the wealthy new senator is already using her vast resources to change that well before the November all-party primary. Loeffler is out with her first TV spot, and her campaign tells the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that it will run as part of a hefty $2.6 million buy over the next four weeks. Loeffler's team also says it plans to spend at least another $1 million on what the paper characterizes as its "first phase of advertisements."
Loeffler speaks to the camera in her debut ad and begins, "My first bill called to end impeachment. My second bill supported killing the world's deadliest terrorist." She goes on to declare, "China is attacking American jobs. Iran is attacking American troops. And Congress only attacks the president. It has to stop."
Loeffler currently doesn't face any intra-party opposition, but Rep. Doug Collins is still considering entering the race. Donald Trump reportedly pushed for Gov. Brian Kemp to appoint Collins because the congressman has used his perch as the top-ranking Republican on the House Judiciary Committee to oppose impeachment, so this spot is likely Loeffler's attempt to show off her own anti-impeachment credentials.
Loeffler also may be launching her ad campaign early to try to boost her poll numbers and deter Collins from running in the first place. Last month's PPP survey found that GOP voters would back Collins over Loeffler 56-16 in a hypothetical contest, and it would be all but impossible for the senator to make it past the fall all-party primary if she lost her base by anything like that margin. However, that survey was taken before Loeffler was even sworn into the Senate, and she likely can improve her showing by launching her TV ad campaign early.
● MA-Sen: On Friday, attorney Shannon Liss-Riordan ended her primary bid against Democratic Sen. Ed Markey. Rep. Joe Kennedy III is now Markey's only notable opponent in the September contest.
Gubernatorial
● UT-Gov: Former state GOP chair Thomas Wright announced Thursday that he had chosen retiring Rep. Rob Bishop as his candidate for lieutenant governor. The move came days after Bishop, a self-described "horrible" candidate who had already decided not to seek re-election to the House, announced that he would support Wright's bid for governor rather than run for the top job himself.
Utah is one of several states where gubernatorial candidates choose a running mate before the primary and the pair go on to win or lose the nomination together. Candidates for lieutenant governor usually don't have much of an impact on the race because most voters only focus their attention on the top of the ticket, but Bishop could be different. The congressman has represented a very red seat in northern Utah since 2003, and he could give Wright a lift in his constituency.
Bishop could also be an asset if he chooses to transfer some of the $300,000 sitting in his congressional account to Wright's campaign, and The Salt Lake Tribune asked the congressman if he'd be doing this on Thursday. "Maybe," Bishop responded, "maybe not."
P.S. While it's rare to see a sitting congressman run for lieutenant governor, it's happened twice over the last few years. Arkansas Rep. Tim Griffin decided to retire from Congress during the 2014 cycle after just two terms in office, but the Republican announced a few months later that he would run for lieutenant governor after the incumbent resigned in disgrace. Griffin won that job, and he's already seeking the 2022 GOP nomination for governor.
Last cycle, Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan eyed a run for governor of Minnesota but ultimately decided to stay out of the race. Nolan went on to announce his retirement from Congress, but he decided to join Attorney General Lori Swanson's gubernatorial campaign a few months later as her running mate. However, the Swanson-Nolan ticket ended up taking third place in the primary to Rep. Tim Walz, who went on to win the general election.
House
● AL-02: The conservative pollster We Ask America is out with a survey of the March GOP primary for this open seat as the first of what they say will be "a series of 2020 primary election polls from around the country." Businessman Jeff Coleman, who began running ads last year, takes first place with 43% of the vote, which is fairly close to the majority of the vote he'd need to avoid a runoff in this safely red seat. Former state Attorney General Troy King leads 2018 candidate Barry Moore 16-8 for second place, while businesswoman Jessica Taylor takes 5%.
● FL-26: The Miami Herald recently reported that GOP Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez would launch a bid against freshman Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell on Jan. 15, but while Gimenez himself confirmed he'd make "an announcement" sometime that week, that's not what happened. He gave his final State of the County address on Wednesday, but when reporters asked Gimenez afterwards when he'd be announcing he responded, "What that next path is, it's still to be determined ... I haven't made up my mind yet."
It's not clear if Gimenez, who national Republicans reportedly have spent months trying to recruit, is just putting off entering the race because he thinks he'll get more attention later or if he's actually reconsidering his plans, but he seems content to drag things out longer. On Friday, when the local NBC affiliate asked him again about his planned announcement he said, "I changed my mind. The time is not right yet."
As the Miami Herald notes, Gimenez is no stranger to dragging out his plans. Back in the spring of last year, when he was talking about running for local office, Gimenez said he would decide by the end of the summer. Several months later in late September, though, Gimenez expressed interest in a congressional bid and said he'd decide by the end of October. That of course didn't happen, and Gimenez abandoned his own timeline for the third time this month. Florida's filing deadline isn't until late April, so he can keep everyone guessing for several more months.
● NJ-02: Rep. Chris Smith has endorsed party-switching incumbent Jeff Van Drew, who is now the only other GOP member of New Jersey's congressional delegation.
● NY-27: GOP Assemblyman Steve Hawley announced Thursday that he would not run in the upcoming special election to succeed disgraced former Rep. Chris Collins.
● TX-24: We hadn't mentioned businesswoman Sunny Chaparala's bid for the GOP nod before, but she may have the resources to get her name out ahead of the March primary for this open seat. While Chaparala raised almost nothing from donors during the last quarter of the race, she self-funded $322,000 and had just over $300,000 in the bank at the end of 2019.
Legislative
● Special Elections: There's one special election in Connecticut on tap for Tuesday:
CT-HD-151: This is a Republican district in the Greenwich area. This vacancy was created by former Rep. Fred Camilio's election as first selectman of Greenwich (a role similar to mayor). The Democratic nominee is businesswoman Cheryl Moss and the Republican is businessman Harry Arora.
This is the third special election in Connecticut in January, and the last two were a split decision for Democrats: The party held a seat in a district that is trending red, but narrowly missed a pickup in a district trending blue. Democrats have a chance to play offense once again in a district that supported Mitt Romney 56-43 but swung to Hillary Clinton 56-40.