With 19 days to go until the end of voting in the Presidential election, it appears that Trump’s primary remaining hope of remaining in power is to generate such confusion and controversy on election day that he can claim a mistrial in a few swing states, then convince pliant judges and Republican state legislatures to override the actual vote and hand him another four years.
We all know the importance voting in such numbers that the results are beyond the margin of error, beyond the margin of cheating, and beyond the margin of imaginary controversy in swing states.
Image courtesy of Janet Marino. Yes this is a real official drop box.
That’s critically important. BUT. Creating such a result can’t wait until election day.
The way to save our republic and restore the rule of law-abiding government is to create that overwhelming result, beyond the margin of cheating, before election day dawns.
We need the remaining rats to see the water coming on board and leave that ship before November 3rd. We need them to decide, before election day, that the overwhelming judgment of history is known and cannot be overcome by chicanery or even violence. We need them to ignore the mad king when he issues his final call to destroy what remains of lawful governance in our country.
Early vote totals are published every day by the Secretary of State of each state. While these numbers don’t include vote results, they include demographics, in some states including the political party of votes returned.
The Election Project, run by Professor Michael McDonald, maintains an excellent site that tracks early votes in each state. electproject.github.io/…
Four major swing states, FL, NC, IA, and PA, record the party of early votes. In those states, the early vote results are remarkable. Check out these margins!
Early Vote Results 10/15/2020 Per The Election Project, Professor Michael McDonald
The margins, based on the registered party of voters, apply simplifying assumptions that Dems vote D, Rs vote R, and Independents split their vote. In this cycle these assumptions are pretty reasonable, since it looks like Ds in particular are supporting Biden at a higher percentage than Rs are supporting Trump. Independents in some states have broken R in prior elections, but for instance this Quinnipac FL poll show them going D this time around: poll.qu.edu/...
Fine. But the Republicans can make this up, on Election Day. There is polling data (including that same Q poll) strongly suggesting that most Republicans plan to vote in person on the day.
The trick is to make the hill so steep, and the number of remaining votes so few relative to votes already cast, that the matter is effectively decided by the end of November 2nd.
Let’s look at those early vote numbers compared the remaining votes to be cast. From those numbers, we can calculate the margin by which Trump would need to win all remaining votes in each state in order to squeak by.
Start with 2016 Vote Totals, and add 20% for a high turnout election and new eligible voters.
From there, we can estimate the hill Trump would need to climb, of all remaining votes, to win each state.
Of these states, Iowa may be the most surprising. Early D votes have already created a 7.7% (of remaining Votes!) margin.
It gets better.
If early votes continue on this trend to double the current number of votes, the baked-in margin percentage in these states will more than double. Every Democratic vote banked is a twofer, because it not only adds to the margin, but reduces the number of votes remaining — that’s why the margin percentages more than double if we simply stay on trend.
Doubling current numbers would mean these Democratic margins, measured out of all remaining votes:
FL : 11.8%
PA : 9.8%
NC : 7.5%
IA : 20.9% !!!!
And early votes are clearly on their way to more than double current numbers (although it’s less clear how well those amazing Democratic margins will maintain through the early vote period; on a percentage basis at least they will likely erode).
The mission is clear. Don’t just vote — vote early. Encourage your friends to vote early. Do anything you can too help people vote early.
Bank the votes, not just for certainty, but to make the landslide clear to the world as soon as possible.
And FFS this year of all years vote Democrat! Whether your state is “safe” or not.
Let’s wake up to an Election Day that can be spent celebrating.
Resources:
Thanks to kossacks Bmeis and modesttraveler for info in comments about when early votes are counted. Per comments, early votes can be counted before election day in North Carolina, Florida. Texas, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa. That means that most or all of early votes in these states will be available to report promptly when polls close, denying Trump the appearance of a vote surge based only on in-person election day voting, and possibly leading to an early call in states like FL.
The Election Project: electproject.github.io/…
Florida Secretary of State: countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/...
Ralston Reports from John Ralston of The Nevada Independent: thenevadaindependent.com/… [The Election Project records NV votes by party but I didn’t even try to analyze, because results are very early and John Ralston is all over it.]
538 Prez Election Page: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
Check out this diary, just published, with some encouraging Texas (!) analysis: www.dailykos.com/...