I thought I was going to have tons to dazzle people with in charts. Were there going to be the hundreds of thousands out to the polls on the first Sunday of early voting? Was the turnout drop going to stabilize?
The answer to both of these was: no.
Sunday saw only 170k early votes. Of course, that’s a number that ‘only’ can apply to, only in Texas. We still saw the TOTAL registered voter participation rise to 24%, which is good!
Out of the 16 largest counties, those who broke past the average were Harris (25.4%), Dallas (24.6%), Travis (with an outstanding 27.1%!), Collin (31.9%), Denton (32%), Williamson (32.5%) and Brazoria (30%). Why do I single out Travis County? Because they have 97% of all eligible voters, registered. That means the difference between registered voter participation and eligible voter participation is near-0.
I’ll do a quick County Recap:
Austin: Travis County. Williamson County (N suburbs)
Dallas/Fort Worth: Dallas/Tarrant Counties. Collin (NE suburbs) and Denton (N suburbs)
Houston: Harris County. Brazoria (S suburbs), Ft Bend (SW suburbs) and Montgomery (N suburbs)
So what does this mean?
Brazoria County: These southern suburbs also stretch SOUTH. This is one of the major expansion areas of Houston. In 2018, it was 51/48 for Cruz. This is one county we have to win.
Collin County: As DFW suburbs, Collin goes red. BUT it’s not as red as you’d think. 2018 showed itself as 53/47 — a 6-pt spread. Given the stories of especially suburban women in TX moving away from Trump and the GOP, Collin County is one to watch. If we want to win TX, we’ve got to bring this to something close to even — no more than a 2-pt loss, imo.
Dallas County is strong Blue: in 2018, we’re talking 66/33 Beto. Run up the margins, run up the percentages participating! In 2018, we hit 57%. That’s 10% higher than the state average.
Denton County: Northern DFW suburbs, it’s not as blue as the city itself. In 2018, we saw a 8-pt spread in Cruz’s favor, 54/46. The suburbs have continued to slip from Trump’s side, but 8 pts is still a fair climb.
Travis County is Austin: Another true blue county. We had an amazing 63% registered voter turnout in 2018, but need to run the margins here, given the 73/25 rejection of Ted Cruz. I can’t see Trump doing even this well.
Williamson County is wealthy suburbs, and usually red as all get out. But that’s where Round Rock is, and they’ve seen their population explode as folks move in for the tech center — so now? Who knows. In 2018, Williamson County voted 51/48...for BETO. That means I’m hopeful.
What now?
Step 1: VOTE
Step 2: GOTV!
Step 3: Believe and encourage others to believe and help GOTV.
Texas was never going to be easy to win, but Texans are used to doing what’s hard. We’ve got this!