In 2010, while Democrats completely focused on national races, the GOP—along with dark money from the Koch brothers and others—poured millions into the state legislative races. As a result, Democrats lost 21 legislative chambers with devastating consequences. States were turned into conservative meth labs that went after women’s rights, healthcare, education funding, and voting rights. Since it was also a redistricting year, it led to gerrymandering that gave the right wing an edge for almost a decade.
In 2020, our top ticket races are flush with cash. Unfortunately, many Democratic swing races in the bottom tier are still woefully underfunded. Worse, while the Republicans are flailing nationally, their local legislative gerrymandered districts are very well funded. It makes sense: big donors want to go where their money will make a difference, and that doesn’t include flushing it down Trump’s gold toilet.
Daily Kos has a set of key state races, 47 in all, that need help right now. If you want to help.
Otherwise, I’ll also give you the top legislatures, in order, from most to least likely to flip.
Both state parties agree this is the most likely to flip this cycle.
Currently facing a 35-32 deficit in the Minnesota Senate, the Democratic Farmer-Labor Party needs to net two seats to gain a complete blue trifecta: governor’s mansion and both legislatures. Unlike the others on this list, Minnesota has gotten much attention because Democrats think they got this one in the bag. They shouldn’t get too cocky, as the GOP knows how to campaign in Minnesota.
This is currently a red trifecta, but Democrats are poised to take over BOTH the House and Senate this cycle. Republicans only hold a 17-13 majority in the Senate and a 31-29 majority in the House. We need to win three Senate seats and two House seats for a blue majority.
The GOP’s hold on the suburbs melted away, and Doug Ducey, the Republican governor, is one of the most hated in the nation. Donald Trump and his equally unpopular Senate candidate, Martha McSally, are getting trounced by Joe Biden and the very popular Mark Kelly. In 2022, there is a very good chance a Democrat will win governor, which means Arizona could go from a red to blue trifecta in just two cycles.
The Texas GOP leads with 83-67 majority. Democrats need 9 seats to flip.
Republicans are very nervous about losing here. The governor is already a Democrat, and it’s possible that NC might flip blue in this election. That would mean a blue trifecta, a Democratic Senator, and a Biden win. If that happens, the next 10 years will go very well for Team Blue.
Democrats need to win five seats in the Senate for a majority, and six seats in the House.
Republicans enjoy a slight 53-47 majority, so Democrats just need four seats to get a majority, after winning five in 2018.
Others:
I would rank the next legislatures as the most likely to flip blue as follows:
6. Michigan House
7. Pennsylvania House
8. Georgia House
9. Wisconsin State Senate
10. Florida State Senate