Life Events overtook yesterday’s diary, but I’ve got only good news coming for today. Not just in raw numbers, but in terms of total votes, we’re in an amazing place! As a reminder, in 2016, we had about 9M voters. In 2018, a midterm, we did fantastically at coming in around 8.7M. This year? Who knows. Truly. It’s unprecedented, but the fact we’ve broken 2018 numbers in most of the top 16 counties and broken 2016 numbers in two, as of YESTERDAY, is a good sign. Especially when we’re two days short of the normal number of early voting days, and logging in between 350k and 450k a day this week.
My guess is that we’ll still see numbers trickle down because that’s to be expected, with a sudden last day rally next Friday, but we’re talking about over 5.8 million votes cast in Texas already. Five million. Five. Million. Votes. That’s 64% of the total 2016 vote.
As a reminder, my guess is that if we’re going to turn TX blue, we need to see between 10 and 11 million votes this year. 11M and we have it. 10M and we have a shot.
Texas Early Vote - to date
County |
19 Oct |
20 Oct |
21 Oct |
Total |
%Ev |
2016 Total |
2018 Total |
Harris |
91,132 |
81,967 |
72,488 |
876,887 |
35.35 |
954k |
767k |
dallas |
47,328 |
44,877 |
40,531 |
488,621 |
34.94 |
542k |
494k |
tarrant |
48,657 |
43,929 |
40,068 |
408,371 |
33.08 |
508k |
434k |
bexar |
41,283 |
39,791 |
37,388 |
396,464 |
33.33 |
466k |
380k |
travis |
36,455 |
35,230 |
31,924 |
339,293 |
39.7 |
364k |
349k |
collin |
28,468 |
26,109 |
22,385 |
290,701 |
44.81 |
298k |
271k |
denton |
24,975 |
22,072 |
18,695 |
247,839 |
43.86 |
224k |
218k |
hidalgo |
10,666 |
8,975 |
7,712 |
115,560 |
29.53 |
138k |
108k |
el paso |
12,984 |
11,936 |
10,856 |
137,617 |
28.14 |
146k |
130k |
ft bend |
26,077 |
22,715 |
21,201 |
186,416 |
38.65 |
212k |
187k |
montgomery |
19,385 |
18,277 |
17,451 |
131,152 |
35.43 |
155k |
125k |
williamson |
16,787 |
15,025 |
13,727 |
167,795 |
44.54 |
160k |
153k |
cameron |
4,889 |
4,210 |
3,573 |
61,016 |
27.87 |
63k |
51k |
brazoria |
10,061 |
7,586 |
6,742 |
91,827 |
40.95 |
99k |
83k |
bell |
61,39 |
5,728 |
5,609 |
53,672 |
24.85 |
67k |
54k |
nueces |
5,627 |
4,896 |
4,325 |
70,982 |
33.54 |
74k |
61k |
totals |
396,441 |
393,593 |
354,675 |
4M |
|
4.3M |
3.75M |
Again, the 4M total there is to give a comparison with the statewide total of 5M votes to date. 80% of all votes have been cast in these top 16 counties. More than that, we’ve passed 2018 and are going to pass 2016 tomorrow.
What do voting averages look like? The total registered voter percentage that have voted to date is an astounding 34.72%. One third of all registered voters in Texas, have voted. Already.
All of a sudden, at least 6-7M early votes in the top 16 doesn’t seem like that much of a reach...and 11M total??
These numbers should have Sen Cornyn shaking in his boots. AND the TX State House. We need 9 seats in the State House to take it, folks. Nine.
No wonder outside groups just dropped $28M to support MJ in the home stretch.
GOTV, Texas, we’ve got this!