Well, now that we’ve hit day 10 of 18 early voting, I’m starting to wonder just where turnout will end up. I’d estimated we needed somewhere around 11M to be pretty certain TX goes blue, and…
And as of yesterday, 6.38 million votes have already been cast.
Texas is going BIG.
We’ve not seen Harris catch up to 2016 numbers, but Harris County especially tends to have their big vote days on the first two days and the last two days of early voting, so I’m not too concerned. They’ll hit it easily early tomorrow.
Tomorrow, by the way, makes up the ‘normal’ number of early voting days. We’ve got another week to go. We might pass 7M early votes tomorrow, people. That was my original estimate of early votes: 7-8M. I was clearly wrong. Now? Now, we’re hitting around 350k a day in the top 16 counties, about 450k a day statewide. Add on more days (minus the weekend, because weekend turnout is low and there are reduced hours), and we’re looking at hitting something like 9-10 million early votes in Texas.
For the record? 2016 had 9 million votes total. No wonder Cornyn’s shaking in his boots. No wonder we’re seeing $28M coming in to support MJ. Now, I’m wondering if targeting just the top 11 TX State House districts might have been thinking too small, though I do still think the TX State Senate is a reach.
If Biden gets TX, the game’s over. It’s all done. The GOP CANNOT win without TX. They just can’t. A blue Texas means Biden can lose ALL of WI, MI, PA, OH, NC, GA, FL, and IA.
And again, TX is not just about the Presidency. It’s not even MOSTLY about the Presidency. Texas is about 2020. It’s about redistricting. It’s about the fact that TX has been operating under court-determined discriminatory districts since 2010. And hasn’t really fixed them. It’s about the Census, it’s about setting the groundwork to take the Governorship, Lt Governorship, Secretary of State, and Board of Education in 2022. It’s about a Dem house of the state legislature stopping Stupid Shit, and giving people a reason to believe their votes matter. And don’t forget, it’s likely TX will wind up getting an additional two House seats come redistricting. Texas is expensive because it’s BIG. Win Texas, make Texas blue, and the GOP’s locked out of the Presidency for the forseeable future — and we can do so much to help so many people who just need something to believe in.
Thanks for this goes to Beto and his work in 2018, to his GOTV effort now, to our excellent slates of candidates in 2018 and today, and to the folks who’ve been working for this day for years: Battleground Texas and the state, county, and local Democrats doing the hard work and believing, despite ridicule from those in blue states, that they were wasting their time and effort.
This goes to every one of you — of us — on the ground, believing, and doing our damnedest to make this the state of Ann Richards, not W. Of Lyndon Johnson, of so many other amazing, progressive Texans that believed part of being Texan was looking out for each other. Let’s keep it up and show them what Texas is really all about.
Day 10 Early Vote
County |
19 Oct |
20 Oct |
21 Oct |
22 Oct |
Total |
%EV |
2016 EV |
2018 EV |
Harris |
91,132 |
81,967 |
72,488 |
54,822 |
953,778 |
38.45 |
977k |
767k |
dallas |
47,328 |
44,877 |
40,531 |
35,892 |
528,504 |
37.79 |
549k |
494k |
tarrant |
48,657 |
43,929 |
40,068 |
36,408 |
439,845 |
36.28 |
515k |
434k |
bexar |
41,283 |
39,791 |
37,388 |
34,638 |
431,325 |
36.26 |
471k |
380k |
travis |
36,455 |
35,230 |
31,924 |
26,758 |
368,566 |
43.13 |
377k |
349k |
collin |
28,468 |
26,109 |
22,385 |
19,237 |
311,851 |
48.08 |
302k |
271k |
denton |
24,975 |
22,072 |
18,695 |
16,339 |
264,992 |
46.89 |
240k |
218k |
hidalgo |
10,666 |
8,975 |
7,712 |
6,539 |
122,530 |
31.31 |
140k |
108k |
el paso |
12,984 |
11,936 |
10,856 |
8,802 |
146,321 |
29.95 |
150k |
130k |
ft bend |
26,077 |
22,715 |
21,201 |
17,186 |
205,222 |
42.54 |
214k |
187k |
Montgomery |
19,385 |
18,277 |
17,471 |
14,182 |
146,093 |
39.48 |
157k |
125k |
Williamson |
16,787 |
15,025 |
13,727 |
10,831 |
179,450 |
47.64 |
163k |
153k |
Cameron |
4,889 |
4,210 |
3,573 |
3,117 |
64,382 |
29.41 |
64k |
51k |
brazoria |
10,061 |
7,586 |
6,742 |
5,643 |
97,555 |
43.5 |
83k |
83k |
bell |
6,139 |
5,728 |
5,609 |
4,938 |
58,846 |
27.25 |
67k |
54k |
nueces |
5,627 |
4,896 |
4,325 |
3,856 |
75,309 |
35.58 |
74k |
61k |
total |
396,441 |
393,593 |
354,675 |
299,188 |
4.4M |
|
4.5M |
3.75M |
Total registered voters in the state of TX is 17M. We’ve now hit 37.63% of all TX registered voters having voted...and we still have just over a week of early voting left, plus election date.
6.4 million Texans have already voted.
Have you?
Edit: I completely forgot a link! If you’ve got spare change, MJ and the 11 Kos-endorsed Dems working to flip the State House could use some of it in the homestretch!