Texas has officially finished week 2 of early voting, and is moving into the final stretch.
For those not used to Texas’ system, we’ll have early voting through Friday, 30 Oct. Then everything will shut down for the weekend and start churning over to preparations for election day itself on Nov 3.
In both 2016 and 2018, we saw roughly 60% of all votes cast early (either in-person or through early voting). This year, that percentage is going to be higher — a LOT higher. What we don’t know is how much higher, though I did some looking at possibilities yesterday. In either case, we know a few things so far.
1) We know the early vote has been huge. Even without this upcoming week, we’ve shattered early voting records for the state. Over 43% of all registered Texans have already voted.
2) We know that so far, the early vote is looking more promising than 2016 AND 2018. @tbonier (twitter), who states he is the CEO of TargetSmart, has had a number of good threads on this starting back on the 23rd (well, that’s as far back as I looked). HT to our own txdoubledd for pointing it out!
- ON OCT 23d, the under-30 vote was modeled at over 10%, far better than 2016’s 6.6% at the same point.
- Of the 5.2M votes cast at that point, 1.3M didn’t vote in 2016 (and they’re modeled to be Dem-leaning)
- Latino turnout, at 15.8% in 2016, was at 16.5%
- AS OF 26 Oct, we surpassed the total 2016 Asian vote.
- Over 750k voters under 30 (which as of that date is still over 10%), and 2/3 hadn’t voted in 2016
- Seniors with a college degree had passed their 2016 voting TOTAL by 100k, and they’re also strongly Biden-leaning.
3) We know that Sen Cornyn’s team modeled up to somewhere around 10.5M votes — and that the higher the voter turnout, the lower his margin for victory. I’ve seen analyses with our ‘magic’ number ranging from 11-12M to turn the state.
4) Sen Harris is coming to Texas on Friday! This is the highest-profile visit, though Jill Biden came to El Paso at the start of early voting, and Sen Harris’ husband, Douglas Emhoff, spent 2 days in the Rio Grande. The Biden campaign has been here in more than just Beto’s excellent GOTV and advocacy up- and down-ticket, and has hired paid staffers across the state.
5) Historically, the highest turnout days for early voting are the first two (which we saw this year as well), and the LAST 2. That’s this coming Thurs and Fri.
Given we’re at 7.35M going into the home stretch, my guess is that we’re going to see roughly 9.5M total early votes. Oh, by the way, the 2016 TOTAL vote? Just under 9M.
But WHY TEXAS?
We’ve heard every year how TX is the football that Lucy keeps holding. That money is best spent elsewhere. That time is best spent elsewhere.
If your only goal is the Presidency, then you’re right.
BUT Texas isn’t just that.
We’ve got a Senate seat up for grabs, and the chance to dump the odious Sen Cornyn.
Texas’ (elected) school board has an outsized effect on school textbooks nationwide.
Texas is growing — and gaining more congressional seats in redistricting this year. Current estimates are TWO new seats.
Oh, and what was that word? Redistricting. Texas’ gerrymanders have been under investigation, legal challenges, and declared illegal...oh, since they were put into place. But we’re ahead in polling in 11 GOP-held Texas State House seats, where we need nine to take control of that chamber. We’re short by four in the Texas State Senate, but that’s going to be a heavy lift this year.
Beyond that? Oh, how about Judges? Remember, it was a Texas judge that the GOP found to declare the ACA unconstitutional. And more than that, it’s Texas judges that will rule on the above redistricting maps. Or voter suppression. Or any number of other issues.
2020 will lead into 2022. Winning is contagious, and in 2022 are the prizes of the Gov, Lt Gov, Attorney General, Sec of State, etc.
And Texas is BIG. More than that, it’s growing, and it’s a chance to strip the Presidency from the GOP for a generation. If Texas is blue, the GOP CANNOT WIN THE PRESIDENCY. If it’s purple? Then it would take an amazing lift.
Texas isn’t just A swing state, it’s the swing state this year. If we win Texas, it’s game over.
HOW TO HELP
Yosef wrote a wonderful diary chock full of resources — please check it out.
Battleground Texas has been fighting the good fight since 2013, and building the momentum for just this sort of wave.
I just discovered the Sisters United Alliance, focused specifically on encouraging women to vote. Given how women have moved AWAY from the GOP, this is a great opportunity to run up the margins.
Jolt is the largest Latino Dem organization in the state, for more targeted GOTV!
For those wanting a legislative focus, how about flipping the TX State House?