Maybe it’s me, but I think John Bolton’s revelation about Pat Cipollone, White House Counsel, being involved in the scheme, and presenting himself as an honest advocate, is a big deal. Everyone is in the loop. So the impetus for the cover-up is strong. And the blow-back will follow.
Jonathan Chait/New York Magazine:
The Republican Cover-up Will Backfire. The House Can Keep Investigating Trump.
From the very beginning, Democrats have followed an informal norm that impeachment should not impinge on the presidential campaign. That self-declared constraint forced the House to work quickly, and is now being used in the Senate as a weapon against more evidence. One revealing moment in the dynamic came last night, when a pair of Republican senators teed up a softball question for the Trump lawyers, asking them to estimate how long the trial would take if all the Democratic requests for evidence were granted. “It would take a long time,” warned Jay Sekulow, “months … This would be the first of many weeks.”
This threat underscored the method Trump has used all along to ward off accountability. He threatens to exhaust every avenue to withhold evidence, running out the clock, and then uses the fear of a lengthy process as a shield. Trump will drag it out, and then Democrats will be blamed for running the process into the election season.
But what if you assume, instead, that the cover-up affixes the blame onto Republicans? That the sheer nakedness of their methods liberates Democrats from the self-imposed constraint of respecting the election-year norm? They can keep digging into Trump from next week through fall, keeping public attention not only on his corruption and abuse of power but also on the Republican conviction that abuse of power is permissible. If impeachment is about exacting a price for Trump’s misconduct, perhaps the highest price will come by letting his enablers reveal exactly how far they are willing to go.
Anna North/Vox:
How abortion in Virginia went from a Trump talking point to a winning issue for Democrats
Democrats in the state won by campaigning on abortion — not running from it.
This time last year, Virginia was at the center of a nationwide firestorm.
The state legislature was considering a bill that would remove some restrictions on third-trimester abortions, and in an interview about the bill, Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam made confusing comments that some took as an endorsement of infanticide.
The moment went viral, with Fox News commentators and Republican politicians lambasting the governor and the bill. In his State of the Union address in February, President Trump mentioned “the case of the governor of Virginia where he basically stated he would execute a baby after birth.” The bill never got a vote.
But now, both houses of Virginia’s state legislature have passed another bill to remove restrictions on abortion. The bill would eliminate a required ultrasound and 24-hour waiting period before the procedure can be performed, as well as requirements for clinics that, advocates say, are simply aimed at shutting down the facilities.
Politico:
Bloomberg and Biden barrel toward Super Tuesday collision
Bloomberg's bid was based on the assumption Biden would collapse. But it hasn't happened, and a moment of reckoning is approaching.
Despite Bloomberg's protestations that he's only here to help, party moderates worry about failure to unite as Bernie Sanders rises. And the calculation for Bloomberg about whether to stay put or step back for Biden won't necessarily be straightforward: He could confront a scenario where Biden is competitive, but not a juggernaut. Indeed, there are myriad ways for how this might play out.
Susan B. Glasser/New Yorker:
THE SENATE CAN STOP PRETENDING NOW
Lamar Alexander and the end of Donald Trump’s impeachment trial.
All fifteen previous impeachment trials in the U.S. Senate, including the two previous Presidential-impeachment trials, had witnesses. But Lamar Alexander has spoken. Donald Trump’s stonewalling will succeed where Nixon’s failed. Perhaps Alexander has done us all a favor: the trial that wasn’t really a trial will be over, and we will no longer have to listen to it. The Senate can stop pretending.
Point is, youngs have to get in the habit of voting.
Kate Brannen/USA Today:
Trump's bogus case against impeachment witnesses: No national security secrets are at risk
Potential witnesses might have to spill the secret of what they really think of Trump. But shouldn't voters find out about that before November?
Setting aside the legal and historical precedents and arguments, it is also important to acknowledge this: There are no national security secrets at risk here. The building blocks of the Ukraine story — and the impeachment articles — are already known. The most important piece of evidence was made public by the White House in November: the record of Trump’s July 25 phone call with the Ukrainian president.
It is right there for all to see that Trump asked Zelensky to investigate Biden and his son, and thereby invited a foreign country to interfere in the upcoming election. Trump’s request set off so many alarm bells that National Security Council staffers sought the advice of White House lawyers about what to do. It also prompted an intelligence official to share his or her concerns with a colleague, who passed them on to CIA General Counsel Courtney Simmons Elwood.
Elwood found these concerns reasonable and serious enough to make a criminal referral to the Justice Department. That same intelligence official eventually filed a formal whistleblower complaint with the Intelligence Community inspector general, who tried to pass it on to Congress, as required by law, before being stopped by the Justice Department in consultation with the White House.
Pew Research Center:
Political values and Democratic candidate support
Large shares of Democratic voters prefer an active role for government and believe in the importance of its regulatory role. About eight-in-ten Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters say the government should do more to solve problems, while just 20% say it’s doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals. Similarly, 78% say the government regulation is necessary to protect the public interest, compared with far fewer (20%) who say it usually does more harm than good.
Interesting data collection from Pew, highlighting where Sanders and Warren are mainstream, and where they are not.
Jonathan Bernstein/Bloomberg:
Four Big Things About the Democratic Race
Voters finally get their say starting Monday in Iowa. The results will be subject to lots of interpretation, so let’s begin.
Several things to keep in mind:
Iowa really is a toss-up. The FiveThirtyEight average has Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden tied for first (Sanders has a 0.1% advantage). But the most important point made by the FiveThirtyEight analysts is over at their projection page: “Joe Biden is forecasted to win an average of 28% of the vote in Iowa. In 80% of simulations, he wins between 11% and 44% of the vote.” Plug in Sanders, and the same results come back. Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts have similar, although slightly lower, ranges. In other words, it’s plausible that those four candidates could finish in any order at all. It also wouldn’t be surprising if one or two of them finish below Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, although she could also finish below several of the others if she winds up at the bottom of her likely range.
The FiveThirtyEight model is telling us something important. When there are lots of candidates, and lots of voters who like most or all of them, the history is clear: Large swings from the polls to the final results are possible in Iowa, even in the final week.
Monkey Cage Blog:
How are Iowa voters picking candidates?
You’ve probably never considered this quality
In considering whom to nominate to run against President Trump, Democrats in Iowa appear to be employing criteria they might use to choose a car to drive or music to listen to: whether they want to fit in with the crowd or stand out.
Former vice president Joe Biden — establishment candidate and front-runner — is losing potential supporters for a reason that has nothing to do with political views. Many Democratic voters have a strong “desire to be different” in their regular lives. That disposes them toward candidates with more niche views and backgrounds.
Like driving a Saab rather than a Honda or arguing that punk rock pioneers Iggy and the Stooges were superior to mainstream favorite Led Zeppelin, picking candidates who challenge the establishment allows people to advertise their distinctiveness and authenticity.
Peter Hamby/Vanity Fair:
GET A GRIP, BERNIE BED-WETTERS: HIS MESSAGE AND MEDIA MACHINE COULD BE POTENT AGAINST TRUMP
Socialist Schmocialist. Sanders has a set of political assets—celebrity, fundraising power, committed foot soldiers, media sophistication, relentless consistency—possessed by no one else in the race.
Everything about Sanders—his ideas, his stubborn dogma, his sometimes-kooky supporters, his contempt for greenroom culture and the party circuit—is completely foreign to the intellectual and cultural fabric of Washington. In that universe, the claim that Sanders is unelectable is more or less gospel. The same Democrats who were assured of Hillary Clinton’s victory are now starting to worry about a Goldwater or McGovern-style Electoral College wipeout with Sanders atop the ticket. If they were so inclined, the bed-wetters could easily Google a year of polls showing Sanders beating Trump in hypothetical head-to-head matchups. A Texas Lyceum poll just this week showed Sanders performing better against Trump in Texas than any Democrat, losing by just three points. That’s on top of a raft of polls showing Sanders beating Trump back those precious Upper Midwest states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. These polls aren’t totally hypothetical, either: Sanders boasts near universal Name ID. Most voters know who Sanders is and what he stands for—and they’re still choosing him, whether they actually like him or just because his name isn’t Donald Trump. The president and his advisers are starting to notice, according to recent stories in the New York Times and Daily Beast. Both outlets reported in recent weeks that some Trump advisers are worried about Sanders’s strengths—his populist appeal, perceived authenticity, and his durable popularity with the same white non-college voters who voted for Trump. “I think he’s tough in places where people are making $12 an hour,” Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale recently told CBS News, who said the media is underestimating his appeal. Trump himself has started asking his team about Sanders’s polling performance in key battleground states, specifically Pennsylvania, the Daily Beast reported.