Trump has yet to appear “presidential” even in the last days of his regime. His COVID-19 response is yet another failed Shark Tank pitch for his credibility, especially after declaring it a “hoax” in a South Carolina rally.
In their 2017 book, “Democracy For Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government,” two political scientists, Larry M. Bartels and Christopher H. Achen, examined the political impact of a spate of shark attacks in early July 1916 in northern New Jersey that killed several local teenagers.
With sharply declining tourism revenue, and no system in place to prevent shark attacks, local communities turned to the federal government for help. President Woodrow Wilson, who had previously served as governor of New Jersey, convened a Cabinet meeting, but his own Bureau of Fisheries told him there wasn’t much to be done. By the time he mobilized Coast Guard resources to patrol the waters, the sharks had moved on and the fear and controversy had faded.
But local voters, adversely affected by the economic consequences of the attacks, still took their anger out on the president. According to Bartels and Achen’s calculations, in the communities most impacted by the attacks, Wilson underperformed by 10 percentage points.
Ironically, as the authors note, responding to the local issue may have fed the notion that the federal government should have done something to handle the situation.
[...]
So does that mean that if the new coronavirus has a highly disruptive impact on Americans it will hurt Trump politically?
I posed this question to the authors. According to Bartels, when the Spanish Flu, which took the lives of an estimated 50 million people around the world, hit the United States in 1918, the political impact was largely non-existent. The flu received surprisingly little national attention and no one, says Bartels, was complaining, "Why isn’t President Wilson doing more to save people?”
[...]
The more the new coronavirus outbreak, and the government’s response to it, becomes politicized, the worse things are likely to turn out for Trump. Since Trump has already gone out of his way to blame Democrats and the media for exaggerating the potential impact of the virus, the politicization train appears to have left the station.
Trump’s unsuccessful efforts to minimize the impact of the rapidly spreading virus for fear that panic will negatively affect the economy may backfire spectacularly. Now his actions and response are tied directly to the crisis.
www.bostonglobe.com/...
Trump: “Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus. You know that … coronavirus. We did one of the great jobs, you say, ‘How’s President Trump doing?’ They say, ‘Oh, not good. Not good.’ They have no clue. They don’t have any clue. … They tried to beat you on ‘Russia, Russia, Russia,’ that didn’t work out to well. They tried the impeachment hoax. That was on a perfect conversation. They tried anything. They tried over and over. They been doing it since you got in. It’s all turning, they lost, it’s all turning. Think of it. Think of it. And this is their new hoax.”
- Trump has walked onto the stage this year without caressing the American flag.
- Trump on his pre-presidency CPAC appearances: "I was very famous then, too. I guess more famous now." He adds, "The Apprentice was doing so well."
- Trump mentions the late conservative writer Charles Krauthammer, and there is applause, but Trump explains "this isn't so good" and recounts how Krauthammer was a skeptic of his candidacy.
- Trump denounces the "hate-filled left-wing mob," then says he has promised to be nice today, "but only a fool is nice when they treat you so badly."
- Trump bashes Mitt Romney for his impeachment vote and calls him a "lowlife."
- Trump says he's getting rid of bad people in government who are "not people that love our country."
- Trump says he has met soldiers who have lost both legs in combat but tell him "Sir, I want to go back."
- Trump says he hates to say this to Republicans, but when he took office, there were maps of the ISIS caliphate, and there was lots of red on them, and "red meant ISIS." He says he then changed the color of ISIS on the maps so it wouldn't be the Republican color.
- Trump is offering a multi-sir account of the hunt for Baghdadi and how he asked why the special forces didn't just go through Baghdadi's front door and was told that sir people would get shot if they walked through the front door.
- Trump explains again that Conan the dog got more press than he did for Baghdadi. He says it was a mere half-day story for him, "but that's alright, I do it for a different reason."
- Trump repeats his usual musings about we could win easily in Afghanistan if he wanted to kill a million innocent people.
- Trump: "I'll say this for the Taliban: they're great fighters. You know that, obviously they're great fighters. All you have to do is ask the Soviet Union."
- Trump says/jokes he scheduled the US deal with the Taliban "for CPAC day." Because "what better place."
- Trump says "I did leave a number of soldiers" in Syria to protect oil assets, then complains that the media reports "he left soldiers there," explaining: "No, no. I left soldiers TO KEEP THE OIL." He says of the media: "These people are the worst."
- Trump says he was criticized for his travel restrictions on China re the coronavirus, but "that decision has now been given very good grades. Like an A-plus-plus-plus."
- Trump offers to help Iran with the coronavirus. "All they have to do is ask. We will have great professionals over there."
- Trump bashes "Nervous Nancy" and "Cryin' Chuck" for criticizing him over the virus, says they don't even know what's going on, then says of the federal response, "We have to make it nonpartisan, if we can."
- Trump calls Sanders crazy and Bloomberg short, mocks Bloomberg's heavy campaign spending, and then says, "It just shows you that you can't buy an election. I mean, there's a point at which people say, you gotta bring the goods a little bit too." He says Warren destroyed him.
- "Indian blood." "'Pocahontas.' That was one of the good ones." "To the real Pocahontas, I apologize."
- The president crouches down to do an impression of Michael Bloomberg being destroyed by Elizabeth Warren.
- Trump's impression of a tiny Michael Bloomberg produces a "four more years" chant from the crowd.
- "That was a great firing," Trump says of his firing of James Comey. He introduces Jeffrey Lord in the crowd. He mocks Robert Mueller.
- Trump says it's "sort of a miracle" that he's accomplished this much given all he's had to go through. "Maybe it's right there, right?" He points to the sky. "Thank you," he adds while looking up. "Thank you, God."
- Trump: "Regulation is stealth taxation. Especially on the poor."
- Trump: "You had a lot of really nice people running our country over the years. Perhaps I'm not nice, but I'm doing a great job for you." There are some cheers. "Well, it's true."
- Trump says "the best line" at last year's CPAC was (his false claim) about how you can't watch TV if wind power is being used and the win doesn't blow, but he won't repeat this because "I don't like to be repetitive." (He endlessly repeats this story.)
- This is one of Trump's attempts to rewrite a history that was televised. He's previously claimed he told this "joke" at an arena rally. It was a press conference at his resort.
- Trump mocks Biden for his speaking gaffes, says he thinks Biden is going to have a big win in South Carolina, muses about "phony" pollsters, and says Fox is good but has bad pollsters.
- Trump mocks the appearance of Pete Buttigieg. He says only old supporters like the ones with white hair know what he means by Alfred E. Neuman, so someone suggested he just call Buttigieg Howdy Doody, but he responded, "No, that's no good. It's gotta be perfecto."
- With no evidence, Trump accuses Bloomberg of campaign finance violations for getting the endorsements of people he has contributed money to in the past. It's not illegal to endorse someone who has donated to your campaigns or your causes.
- Trump polls the crowd on who would be easier to beat. The crowd cheers louder for Sanders than Biden. Trump asks how this can be, then muses that Biden is "more down the middle" than Sanders, then says Biden wouldn't be running the government, "just sitting in a home someplace."
- Trump is talking about how he lost the Time Person of the Year to Greta, which he says is fine because he's won before, even though "the whole world revolves around this person" (him), as evidenced by cable news coverage. "Every story is Trump or Trump-related."
- Trump says people don't talk about how there's no more estate tax. That might be because there is still an estate tax.
- Trump says before him the US used to have a trade deficit with China of more than $500 billion per year. It has never once been $500 billion in a year. (Editor's note: For some reason, I find this Trump's #1 most boring favorite lie.)
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LOL. Trump's script says something like "We understand that our first duty and your highest loyalty is to the American citizen." But he accidentally says "We understand that our first LADY," then, trying to save it, says Melania told him this today and asked him to let CPAC know.
"This is Melania -- told me this. Can you believe this?" The crowd is now cheering for this supposed advice from Melania. I've never seen a more elaborate Trump attempt to pretend he didn't make a reading error.
- Instead of arguing that Biden is very left-wing too, Trump says Biden is pretty centrist but tells people they have to remember Biden is so old he wouldn't really be in charge and would get socialists to do it for him.
- We have made our way to vicious crimes committed by people in the country illegally. Trump, struggling a bit to read the word "aliens," calls the left's preferred immigration policies "heartless, merciless and cruel."
- Trump refers to a crime by an "MS-3" member. After mocking Biden at length for verbal stumbles, Trump has been stumbling repeatedly.
- Trump has started going after Sanders more than usual, criticizing him for endorsing the right to vote for heinous criminals in prison and for calling for a moratorium on deportations.
- Trump lies again that Mexico is paying for the wall. He adds, "And they're okay with it."
- Trump: "We are ending surprise medical building."